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2011-05-06T13:17:00.001+05:30

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com contact;09013177977,AMIT

Be my lifetime member for free ....

2010-03-22T14:29:00.000+05:30

I HAVE RECEIVED MORE THAN 180 TELEPHONE CALLS ALL OVER INDIA IN THESE DAYS
I AM VERY THANKFUL TO MY FOLLOWERS,FOR THEIR FAITH&LOVE.

If anyone of you wish to get associated with me for lifetime do come up fast to get the PUG trading account done at the earliest.Account opening procedure is very easy and hassle free.Just courier me the below mentioned documents and your account would get done in 7-8days.No matter where you stay in India or in any part of the world you can always have an account with my firm.All tips and guidance would be provided free for lifetime.Membership for the happening brokerage blog would be alloted too.
So here is what you need to courier me for an online trading account:-

1.PAN Card zerox

2.Address proof(Voter card/Passport/telephone bill/Ration card/driving license/Latest Bank Statement with Bank seal)

3.Two Photos

4.One cancel cheque(A cheq which you need to criss-cross or simple write cancelled)

In a piece of paper do write your:-

1)Qualification

2)Occupation

3)email id

4)Cell number

5)If you work for a company,its name and address.

btw:Please self attest/sign the xerox copies of the documents , the cancelled cheq& MARGIN CHEQUE IN FAVOUR of PUG securities Pvt.Ltd.

Address where you will courier:-SANTOSH KUMAR SINGH is the branch manager of PROACTIVE UNIVERSAL GROUP(GURGAON BRANCH)
SANTOSH KUMAR SINGH(trendwatch-india.blogspot.com)

DS-10,2ND FLOOR,SECTOR-14,

GURGAON-122001

# +911244296400-09

For any clarification regarding these,mail me at:-PUGINDIA.2008@gmail.com
Hope to have your active support folks.Sent these to me and I assure all of you would have a gala time,Rock on.

Regards,

AMIT CHUGH

# +919013177977
Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

THIS IS MY LAST POST FOR THIS BLOG.

2010-03-14T17:31:00.006+05:30

HELLO FRIENDS,

I WAS REALLY BUSY IN THE PAST FEW DAYS, FOR I WAS INVOLVED WITH A BROKERAGE HOUSE PUG(PROACTIVE UNIVERSAL GROUP), NEGOTIATING TERMS&CONDITIONS.
PUG IS A UNIQUE BROKERAGE HOUSE AS IT WORKS ON INNOVATIVE&INVESTOR FRIENDLY STRATEGIES.I HAVE JUST JOINED THIS. YOU CAN GET DETAILS ON THIS BROKERAGE HOUSE ON MY MAIL.AT THE MOMENT,ALL I CAN SAY IS THAT IF YOU OPEN AN ON-LINE INTEGRATED DEMAT & TRADING ACCOUNT BY ME THEN YOU CAN AVAIL THE FOLLOWING BENEFITS.

1.GET LOGICAL VIEWS TO BUY OR SELL YOUR STOCKS.

2.PHYSICAL CONTRACT NOTES FOR EVERY TRADE.

3.ATTRATIVE BROKERAGE SLABS.1PAISA ON INTRADAY&10PAISA ON DELIVERY.

4.ASSURED RETURN ON YOUR INVESTMENTS, RECOMMENDED BY EXPERTS (double from bank FD)*.

5.FUNDAMENTAL STOCK RESERCH: IDENTIFY MULTIBAGGERS FOR INVESTERS, CALL OF THE DAY ABSOLUTELY FREE.

6.A UNIQUE TECHNIQUE OF INVESTING IN STOCKS.

7.TECHNICAL NEWSLETTERS, MARKET OUTLOOK, MARKET WHISPERS ON VARIOUS STOCKS BY MY TEAM, EVERYWEEK
MEMBERSHIP OF MY BLOG HAVING A 90% SUCCESS RATIO. THIS IMPLIES THAT OUT OF 10 TRADING CALLS, 9 CALLS WILL BE PROFITABLE*.

ALSO GET FREE ADVICE ON VARIOUS ISSUES LIKE :
- DEMAT OF PHYSICAL SHARES*
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SO WHAT ARE YOU WATING FOR??!! GET STARTED ON A PROFITABLE JOURNEY WITH ME AND JOIN MY NEW BLOG BY INVITATION OR GETTING YOUR DEMAT AND TRADING A/C IN PUG OPENED BY ME.

FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT : +919013177977 or E-MAIL ME AT pugindia.2008@gmail.com

MOST OF MY CALLS WILL BE DELIVERY FOR SHORT TERM, WHICH WILL GIVE YOU A RETURN OF 10-15% WITHIN A FIXED TIME FRAME.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Gujarat State Petronet Ltd

2010-03-03T14:01:00.000+05:30

Gujarat State Petronet Ltd (Investment folio) TGT........
BSE: 532702 NSE: GSPL

Rec Price : 89.50

Gujarat State Petronet Limited is first company in India to transport natural gas on open access basis and is a Pure Natural Gas Transmission Company. The company is a pioneer in developing energy transportation infrastructure and connecting natural gas supply basins and LNG terminals to growing markets. GSPL is continuously expanding its pipeline network in Gujarat to to reach the demand centres by laying gas pipeline network. The company has developed requisite expertise and confidence with proven project management competencies.

• Total Income increased from Rs. Rs.417.89 crores in previous year to Rs.487.89 crores, recording increase of 14%.

• EBIDTA increased from Rs. 396.89 crores in previous year to Rs.452.42 crores, recording increase of 14%.

• PAT increased from Rs.102.02 crores in previous year to Rs.123.71 crores, recording increase of 24%.

• 100% pipeline grid availability and "accident free" year of operations.

- Company is currendy carrying 31 MMSCMD of gas which is 50% more than peak volumes achieved previously.
- PNGRB has initiated process of public consultation by inviting comment on GSPL request to grant authorization to GSPL existing pipelines.
- The Company has acquired equity stake in Krishna Godavari Gas Network Limited(KGGNL). KGGNL is incorporated for developing gas transmission and distribution network in the State of Andhra Pradesh.
- The Company has filed Expression of Interest (EOI) for development of cross country gas transmission pipeline network from Mallavaram - Bhilwara (approx. 1400 Kms),
Mehsana- Bhatinda (approx. 900 Kms), Bhatinda-Jammu - Srinagar (approx. 770 Kms) and Surat - Paradip Pipeline (approx. 1600 Kms). These projects may be offered for bidding by PNGRB during the current year.
-Enhanced strategic equity stake in GSPC Gas Company Limited, which is developing City Gas Distribution Network in the State of Gujarat.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

EVERONN EDUCATION LIMITED

2010-02-26T18:23:00.002+05:30

EVERONN EDUCATION @398.50

Everonn is India’s second-largest
technology-aided knowledge services
company, offering comprehensive
learning solutions across the education
value chain.

The company provides Education Service
for several State Governments in India,
for their Computer Education, Computer
Literacy, Computer Aided Learning and
Teachers Training projects.

Everonn has the technological capabilities
to stream relevant educational content
simultaneously and seamlessly through
VSAT, Broadband and the 3G Spectrum
(Mobile). Everonn currently operates live
and interactive sessions through over 13
studios at Chennai and New Delhi.

The revenue of the company for the
quarter ended on Dec 31th increased 83.5
% YoY while profit increased 54%.

The topline of the company are expected
to grow at a CAGR of 51% over 2008A
to 2011E.

Everonn Education Ltd is a provider of range of services in education and training segment.
Incorporated in 2000, the company is engaged in designing and developing of educational and training
infrastructure.

Everonn Education Ltd creates virtual and interactive learning classroom networks across India. The
company caters the needs of school, colleges and retail segments. it supplies necessary hardware to schools and colleges and also offers various courses -- curriculum and non curriculum-based -- for students.

The company has been an education service provider for several states in India, for their computer
education, computer literacy, computer-aided learning and teacher training projects. It has presence
in 11 states, over 4,400 computer labs and has trained 1.4 million students.

Everonn has network of 3500 learning centers across India making it the largest networked education company.

Everonn currently operates live and interactive sessions through over 13 studios at Chennai and New Delhi

Results Updates (Q3 FY10)

The bottomline of the company for the quarter increased at 54% yoy that is Rs.121.45mn from
Rs.78.86mn of same period of last year. Total revenue for the third quarter stood at Rs.799.17
mn from Rs.435.51 which is 83.5% increased than that of a year ago period. EPS for the quarter
stood at Rs.8.03 per equity share of Rs.10.00 each.
Expenditure of the company increased 98% YoY to Rs.520.11mn from Rs.263.27mn of same
\period of last year. Interest expenses for the quarter stood at Rs.22.42mn. OPM & NPM for the
quarter stood at 35% and 15% respectively.

Products and services

Institutional Education and IT Infrastructure Services (IEIS)

The company is able to set up education ad IT infrastructure within a period of thirty days with signing

the contract with the government and government agencies. It provides IT hardware, software,

physical infrastructure and also provides other services.

IEIS projects are completed in the states of Tamil Nadu and the Union Territory of Pondicherry. The

company along with government of Andaman and Nicobar Islands is implementing an IEIS project in

order to implement computer education in all government school at all levels.

Virtual and Technology Enabled Learning Solutions (ViTELS)

ViTELS provides education and training solutions through satellite based VSAT technology. ViTELS

delivery centres are available at over 200 colleges/ schools.

Testing and Alliance Partner Services (TAPS)

This provides assessment tests that are part of various study aboard programmes, pre-employment

tests, psychometric tests and many more.

Valuation

At the current market price of Rs.401.45., the stock trades at a P/E of 14.65x and 13.04x for

FY10E and FY11E respectively.

On the basis of EV/EBDITA, the stock trades at 6.78x and 6.44x for FY10E and FY11E respectively.

Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 2.46 and 2.07 respectively for FY10E and

FY11E.

The Net sales of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 51% over 2008 to 2011E.

Everonn signs MOU with Australasian Academy of Mentoring and Coaching (AAMC) Training Group,

a wholly Australian owned registered Training organization operating internationally.

The members at the Extra Ordinary General Meeting (EGM) of the Company, inter alia, has

approved the increase in the limit for FII investment up to 100% of paid up capital of the

Company.

expect strong order flows from the government on various projects under the public private

partnership model, recommend ‘BUY’ in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs.465.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Man Infraconstruction IPO Analysis

2010-02-18T10:39:00.000+05:30

Man Infraconstruction (Man Infra), a construction contractor in the realty and infrastructure segment. The company intends to utilise funds to purchase capital equipment and for general corporate purposes.
Man Infra undertakes and executes construction contracts besides providing project management and consultancy. In the infrastructure space, it takes up construction of roads and port container terminals and support infrastructure. In the realty sector, it undertakes residential and township construction, commercial and industrial construction.
The share of residential to total order book is 83% and that of commercial 10%
Promoted by Parag Shah and Mansi Shah, Man Infrastructure provides construction services for the port sector, residential and commercial real estate and roads. The company started off as a contractor for port infrastructure in August 2002 providing services including construction of onshore terminals, container freight stations, operational buildings and workshops. It has gradually entered into contracting services in the residential and commercial space in the Mumbai market. Over the years, real estate sector projects have become the major contributor to the consolidated revenue of the company. The share of the real estate sector to consolidated contract revenue came down in the fiscal ended March 2009 (FY2009) to 53% from 60% in FY 2008, but has since accelerated to 72.5% for the nine month ended December 2009.
Man Infrastructure's five biggest clients based on cumulative sales turnover of the last five fiscal years were Dynamix, Simplex, Gateway Terminals, MICT and Gokuldham Real Estate Development Company. In FY 2007, 2008 and 2009, 57.44%, 15.92% and 2.48%, respectively, of its standalone contract revenue was derived from Gateway Terminals (a container terminal operator at the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust) for port infrastructure projects and 6.65%, 11.47% and 5.88%, respectively, from Neelkanth, and 1.60%, 36.33% and 26.56%, respectively, from Dynamix, and 0%, 11.25% and 34.06%, respectively, from Simplex. The company has developed strong customer relationships on account of timely completion of projects in accordance with their requirements. It has long-term relationships with many of its clients, including subsidiaries or affiliates of the A.P. Moller group such as Maersk India and Gateway Terminals, and subsidiaries or affiliates of P&O Ports (now known as DP World) such as Mundra International Container Terminal, and have received repeat business from such clients.
Currently, Man Infrastructure's operations are confined to construction services. It has no presence in infrastructure project development. This is one area the company is looking at entering. Moreover, it also intends to move up the value chain in the construction services business from current item rate contracts to turnkey solutions from project design to commissioning. Towards this, the company is building up capabilities organically as well as through selective acquisitions of specialized businesses with design capability.
Man Infrastructure is offering fresh equity shares of 56,25,150 through the IPO at an offer price band of Rs 243-Rs252, which would raise about Rs 137 crore to Rs 142 crore. The company intends to use the proceeds to meet the expenditure on purchase of capital equipments of Rs 122.53 crore and for general corporate purposes.
Strengths
The order book was Rs 2020.93 crore end December 2009. About 93% comprised real estate projects, with the share of residential to total order book standing at 83% and that of commercial orders at 10%. The balance is made up of port infrastructure (5%) and road infrastructure (2%) projects. Nearly 22.31% of the total order book is accounted for by Slum Rehabilitation Authority projects and government residential projects in Maharashtra. Moreover, real estate contracts are concentrated around the Mumbai market, which has bounced back quickly from the slowdown and continues to be stable.
Weakness
Execution of some of the projects slowed down in the first nine months of FY 2010. Consequently, the contract revenue declined 14% to Rs 388.07 crore. Continued slowdown in contracts irrespective of client side or contractor related issues might affect revenue, going forward, if not sorted out.
Some of the promoter group companies are into real estate development as well as have object clause to pursue construction services.
A majority of the order backlog is made up of item rate contract. The proportion of revenue derived from contracts, where the consideration is payable solely on item rates, was 42.42% in FY 2008 and 53.00% in FY 2009. Hence, margin is not insulated from the vagaries in movement of commodity prices as well as labour and construction equipment costs.
Have limited experience in the execution of construction projects in infrastructure sectors other than port infrastructure and real estate. Similarly, has no prior experience of build-operate-transfer projects, either the bidding or development and operation.
Despite targeting a port capacity addition of 511 million tones in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan (YEARS!!), the country is going slow on order finalisation. The slippage is currently estimated at about 40% and this could impact the order inflows from this sector.
Valuation
Consolidated sales were up by 154% to Rs 586.92 crore and net profit equally higher by 159% to Rs 82.55 crore in FY 2009. On post-IPO equity, the FY 2009 EPS works out to Rs 17.5 and the nine-month ended December 2009 annualised EPS Rs 18.9.
Underlying the high profit, OPM stand at 30.4% for the nine months ended December 2009, up from 24.7% in FY 2009. For a pure construction company, this margin looks high.
At the current offer price of Rs 243-Rs 252, the consolidated EPS for FY 2009 is discounted 13.9-14.4 times. Comparable companies BL Kashyap and Consolidated Construction Consortium are discounting their FY 2009 consolidated EPS 10.2 and 22 times.

Offer details
The offer is open from February 18-22. On offer are a total of 5,625,150 shares. IDFC SSKI and Edelweiss Capital are the lead managers to this issue

You may apply,for decent listing gains.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Don't fall prey to tips for quick returns: Sebi

2010-02-17T21:02:00.000+05:30

SEBI has observed a proliferation of websites that offer investment advice to investors. Many of these websites offer investment advice not backed by any reasonable basis and prima facie appear to be misguiding. Investors should realize that when they follow such advice they are exposing themselves to undue risk in using unconfirmed information available on such Websites/Blogs/astrology predictions or advice/Newspaper Advertisements/SMS’s/Emails/rumours/ advice rendered through television or print media and trading tips on an intra-day basis, short term basis or long term basis. The public in general is advised not to fall prey to or be lured by such sources of information promising quick gains and unrealistic high returns. It is advised that investors should take well informed investment decisions.

The following may be borne in mind:

• Deal only with/ through SEBI registered intermediaries.

• Do not get carried away by advertisements promising unrealistic gains and windfall profits.

• Do not invest based on market rumours or unconfirmed or unauthentic news.

• Be aware that advice through television or print media does not mean that it is the opinion of the channel or publisher.

• Be extra cautious while using information available from media sources such as Websites/ Blogs/ Newspaper Advertisements/ SMS’s Emails/rumours/ advice through television or print media for information and tips for intra-day, short term or long term investing.

• Do not be guided by astrological predictions on share prices and market movements.

• Do not make investment decisions on the basis of implicit/explicit promises made by anyone.

• Do not be unduly influenced by indicative returns.

• Do not be unduly influenced by Bull Runs/Bear Runs while making investment decisions.

Remember: Always know your risk-reward BEFORE investing.

• There are many websites which educate us as investors, there are news websites, company websites, database websites which we can use to know more about the companies that we wish to invest.

• Never invest on market rumours or tips, if one says one has inside information why oneself is not taking full benefit and sharing with everyone else. Are the so-called insiders so reckless that they don't know how to protect their own interests?

• Now there are so many business channels and investment related newspapers and a multitude of analysts write their views but nobody is bothered about knowing their credentials, a failed trader becoming a super analyst is a rarity but it seems it is becoming abundance. May be SEBI is of the same view and that is why they have had to caution investors.

• Predicting market turns is always difficult but as human beings we have to predict for future course of action. As investors we need to be cautious with those who claim they can time the market like a school time-table, only certainty in market is its uncertainty so never invest on any market call / tip before knowing the credentials of the person, IT IS YOUR HARD-EARNED MONEY AT STAKE!

• When u are Getting Free calls with accuracy of more then 80% +.....Sometime our stock fails...but then we give stop & resistance levels too, to our paid clients.

• Always remember...no force or single person can move stock.Its a game of mass psychology.

We look at chart ,collect information and just spread it .......free of cost.

• Always Remember :Never pay money to anybody ..who is asking for it.Just ask any Analyst (TV ,Media ,Print or Website wale Analyst ko pucho............What is their success ratio in Day trading???A Million $ Question ...Doing Bla-Bla on TV ,writing on web is very easy......but while u trade .....u are playing with live wire

wish u happy trading to all of u.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Do not let the change go !!!! Grab it - Concurrent

2010-02-15T10:48:00.000+05:30

Scripscan:
Code:531261
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 17.30
Concurrent belongs to the the "T" group or trade to trade segment.Its funny to see people making "trade to trade" stuff a bone of contention here.It hardly means anything except people can`t trade intraday,circuit filter would be 5%..thats it and nothing else...Even the likes of reliance capital,lupin been in the t group earlier...Its just done to curve the volatility..Ignorant guys are making a heck of it..AT ANY POINT OF TIME IT WOULD BE SHIFTED BACK TO ITS B group...Many of you are not digesting the tumultous seeling that concurrent is facing.To answer I can only say... it has moved from a level of 2 to 18..that too under the present market environment..why wont people sell?You expect each and everyone to be aware of the real story of concurrent?90% investors acts on hearsay and rumuors...if losses occurs nothing but stock market would be blamed...How does a `t` group matter if story is great? Take the case of today..nearly 14 lakhs shares changed hands.It means 14 lakhs delivery shares were bought and sold .No bulk deal has happened in the trading session which signifies exiting of weaker hands and entry of stronger investors.Obviously their thoughts and ideologies are different and superior to that of sellers.
They have just bagged an order of 11 odd crorers for material handing.Material handling is easy stuff,its just transport of material from here to there.They gonna complete the order by this march and make a profit of 1 cr from the deal.
Concurrent being in the bulk deals for huge selling from a particular company named ABSOLUTE LEASING & FINANCE PVT LTD.Its a company of MR G.K.Agarwal who was the erstwhile owner of kushagra,he was told to exit the company and thus he offloaded all his 15 lakh odd shares in the market.Weaker hands gone out.

Concurrent has made an acqusition of kazi aviation for zero bucks.They hope to bag orders from riyadh airport for handling and maintaince.If everything goes right this high margin vertical would contribute 100crs topline in the coming few years.

Its about to bag a big order from andhra cement for captive power plans.It would be a huge contract with time spanning a period of 20-30years.

A press conference is soon round the corner in mumbai,Sudhir plans to make Mr Vilas rao desmukh as the cheif guest.A couple of deals could be signed infront of him.
Kushagra operations are nearly stopped,even concurrent has returned all their offices and stuff to them.Its a great sign of a strong aggresive visionary entreprenur which fascinated me the most.
The company’s Operating profit and Net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11% and 200% over FY08 to FY11E.
The Company has launched its official website ww(.)concurrentindia(.)com in an effort to bring important news and details of the projects for providing the user with better information about overall activities of the company.
The company has bagged EPC contract from Pennant Penguin Holdings in Kandy, Srilanka. The contract involves setting up of 30 MW power projects which is expected to be executed in over a span of 24 months.
The company is looking to float a preferential issue at Rs 15 per share for the purpose of acquisition of land for logistics business. The company has identified land of 25 acres near Hyderabad City for the purpose of setting up logistics supply chain.
The company has bagged a sub-contract worth Rs 22crore from Sreenidhi Constructions, Belgaum, Karnataka.
The company has signed agreement with Ellis Richardson Inc (ERI) on an exclusive basis for Indian markets and on a non-exclusive basis for the overseas markets.
The company has submitted its bid for acquisition of 4.15 MW power project in the state of Andhra Pradesh. The project is a Mini Hydro Electric Power Plant. The cost of the project is Rs. 23crore.
The company is looking to acquire 320 perches land in Sri Jayewardenepura Kotte, Colombo, Sri Lanka.
The company launched a pilot project for power generation in the Negombo beach region of Sri Lanka, has announced that the pilot was successful.

We recommend ‘BUY’ with a target price of Rs.40.00 for long term.

I AM VERY BULLISH ON THIS COMPANY,To summarize, buy 10000-20000 shares of concurrent now and retire rich after 3 years.Cheers folks. MY TARGET............

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Stock market related Fun valentine day messages SMS 14 Feb 2010!!!

2010-02-14T19:42:00.001+05:30

We market Persons have our own Dictionary which is filled with market words.

Here are the Best messages SMS for Stock market traders,investors

have Fun on this valentine Day

You have made me rangebound between hope and despair.Please accept my love otherwise I will breakdown like NIKKEI & will never reclaim the old highs of Hope!!

Happy valentine Day

If you promise to provide me long term support,I will bounce back From any bottom

Happy valentine Day

My heart for you will never be bearish.

My smile for you will never go in downtrend .

My love for you will never touch resistance.

I love you

Happy valentine day

You and me are the best combination like

fundamental and technical analysis together

Happy valentine Day

Anyone can make you SMILE,

anyone can make you CRY,

But it is that special person

That can make you bullish in bear markets of Life

I love you

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Important Financial Ratios for Fundamental analysis

2010-02-13T13:01:00.000+05:30

1. Book Value Per Share =(Equity Share Capital + Reserve)/Total No. of Equity Shares

2. Cover =Earnings Per Share (EPS)/Dividends per Share

3.Earnings per Share (EPS) ={Profit after Tax(PAT)—Preference Dividend}/Total No. of Equity Shares

4. Earnings Yield (%) =(Earnings Per Share (EPS)/Market Price of Share)x 100

5. P/E Ratio= Market Price of the Share/Earnings per Share (EPS)

6. P/BV Ratio=Market Price the of Share/Book Value of the Share

7. Yield (%)= (Dividend per Share/Market Price per Share)*100

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Top 10 Stocks in NSE BSE with rise in Promoters Shareholding in Dec 2009

2010-02-12T16:21:00.005+05:30

This is unique List of Stocks Where promoters Shareholding is Rising.
Indian promoters have Increased their Stake ,While Promoters have Exited From their Stock Investment

Many of These Stocks are Still out of stock market investment research,So Could Be multibaggers.

Consider this List As Starting Point and research the Company before buying stocks.

Or ask us about the Company.

Share Name BSE Code NSE Code % Promoters holding 31 Dec 2009 % Promoters holding 30 Sep 2009 %Change

GEE KAY FINANCE & LEASING COMPANY LTD. 531863 NA 8.6\ 0.54 +1492.6%

MACK TRADING CO.LTD. 501471 NA 72.89\ 10.14 +618.8%

CONCURRENT (INDIA) INFRASTRUCTURE LTD 531261 NA 43.31\ 13.4 +223.2%

COMP-U-LEARN TECH INDIA LTD. 532363 NA 14.08\ 4.65 +202.8%

MAFATLAL INDUSTRIES LTD. 500264 MAFATLAIND 65.73\ 32.74 +100.8%

PRECISION CONTAINEURS LTD. 523874 NA 11.83\ 6.18 + 91.4%

VAS INFRASTRUCTURE LTD. 531574 NA 59.33\ 31.99 +85.5%

MAYTAS INFRA LTD. 532907 MAYTASINFR 37.01\ 21.5 +72.1%

ANUKARAN COMMERCIAL ENTERPRISES LTD. 512355 NA 60.5\ 38.1 +58.8%

KOHINOOR BROADCASTING CORPORATION LTD. 531366 NA 0.36\ 0.23 +56.5%

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Top 10 Stocks With highest rise in % FII Shareholding NSE BSE

2010-02-12T15:51:00.003+05:30

Top 10 Stocks which FII increased their stakes in terms of percentage shareholding
Many of these are Mid Cap Peeny Stocks

But in future we will see what is impact of FII Buying these shares

Stock BSE Code NSE Code FII % Holding 31.12.2009 FII %Holding 30.09.2009 % Change

Jai Balaji Industries Ltd 532976 JAIBALAJI 11.63 \0.05 + 23160%

Mudra Lifestyle 532820 MUDRA 1.67\ 0.01   +16600%

Kaashyap Tech 532283 Not Available 31.86 \0.46   +6826.09%

Sakthi Sugars 507315 SAKHTISUG 9.99 \0.18   +5450%

VIP INDUSTRIES 507880 VIPIND 0.97 \0.02   +4750%

Sunteck Realty 512179 SUNTECK 5.47\ 0.35    +1462.86%

Andhra Pradesh Paper Mills 502330 APPAPER 20.98 \1.38   +1420.29%

Cosmo Films 508814 COSMOFILMS 0.26 \0.02   +1200%

Walchandnagar Industries 507410 WALCHANNAG 0.12 \0.01   +1100%

Symphony Comfort Systems 517385 Not Available 0.11 \0.01   +1000%

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Man Industries India Ltd

2010-02-11T13:16:00.000+05:30

Man Industries India Ltd— BUY—55—INR

Sector — Metals (Tubes & Pipes)

Regd.Off.— Man House, 102, S V Road, Mumbai, M.H. -- 400056

Listed — NSE, BSE.

Company overview—

Man industries promoted by Rameshchandra Mansukhani was incorporated on March 19, 1988 has its aluminium extrusion plant at Pithampur, MP. Man Industries (India) Limited is the flag ship company of Man Group of UK is a leading manufacturer of large diameter SAW Line Pipes and Coating Systems for high pressure applications like transportation of Oil, Gas and other Petrochemical products. Company is an ISO 9001, ISO 9002, ISO-14001 and ISO-18001 certified and all its facilities hold valid API Licenses for production of high pressure line pipes for hydrocarbon applications. Company plants are located at Pithampur, MP and Anjar (Kutch), Gujarat. Company commenced its operations with manufacture of aluminium extrusions in 1988; the company's diversification into manufacture of SAW/Spiral pipes in 1994 is presently contributing more to the company's turnover than the aluminium extrusion division. The pipes division of the company which includes both Saw Pipe manufacturing facility and Spiral Pipe and Coating are also located at Pithampur, MP near to the aluminium extrusion plant. The company has Collaboration agreement with Chr. Haeusler, Switzerland for API-grade longitudinally welded SAW pipes. The SAW pipe division at Pithampur, can manufacture pipes of diameters between 18 inches and 60 inches and thicknesses between 6 mm and 25.4 mm and of lengths upto 12 mtr. Company is eligible to bid for major trunk line projects both in domestic and as well in international level as it has upgraded its facilities to meet international quality standards. Company has world’s most advanced technology in this highly specialized and high priority area. The latest pre stressed 3 Roll Bending Process from Heausler, is being used to manufacture pipes of matchless profile, strength and toughness. The collaborators have given a performance guarantee for the plant in terms of production parameters and adherence to all International Standards including API / NACE.

Products & Services—

Company has manufacturing facility for Spiral SAW Pipes along with facilities for various corrosion preventive coatings on line pipes such as FBE/3 layer Polyethylene Coating, Coal tar Enamel Coating, Internal & external Cement mortar and internal epoxy Lining, Aluminium extrusions. In addition to the above, the facility of a COLD EXPANDING MACHINE is also available at the works. EXPANDER is imported from Romania to meet the mandatory/optional requirements of oil & gas industry. With a state-of-the-art online plate UT Machine, an automated Roll Bending Mill, equipped with CNC & PLC Controls, state of art Internal and External Welding Units, On line real time Radioscopy, advanced CNC Hydrostatic testing, on line X-ray / Ultrasonic M/c. etc., it supply quality and flawless steel pipes confirming to API / NACE international standards, to meet global demand of a large diameter of range from 18" to 60" meant for critical applications.

Recent developments—

Company bagged Rs 13.40 billion orders from Middle East during the current year. The latest international order has been allotted to the Indian company amidst stiff international bidding. The order has to be executed in the current financial year. With the latest order of Rs 13.40 billion, the company’s total order book stands about Rs 20 billion.

Company is exploring the possibilities to set up a manufacturing unit in the US at USD 200 million. Company had plans to start the said facility two years back and had even bought the required land. However, the company was forced to postpone the proposal, as seven US and Indian companies entered the market at the same time. Since then, a global recession has further depressed demand. Steel pipe mills also, as a rule, do not operate at more than 60 per cent of capacity. However, with a recovery underway, MIIL’s interest in the US scheme has renewed. Company would look for an investment opportunity of $200 million to produce approximately 300,000 tons of steel pipes of different diameter, gauges and sizes.

Valuation—

Company keeping pace with its progressive role and strong order book positions will make it grow at very sustainable rate in future. At CMP, stock is trading at 9.65 P/E multiple of its FY2011 estimated EPS. We recommend investors to "BUY" "Man Industries" for medium to long-term investment horizon.

Market Cap 295.73

* EPS (TTM) 10.57
* P/E 5.25
* P/C 3.24

* Book Value 76.54
* Price/Book 0.73
Div(%) 30.00
Div Yield(%) 2.70

Market Lot 1.00
Face Value 5.00
Industry P/E 11.70

* As per latest stand alone adjusted profit after extra-ordinary items.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

ARSS Infrastructure Projects IPO analysis

2010-02-10T20:24:00.001+05:30

Focused on rail and road infrastructure

Rs 2877.53-crore unexecuted order book, 41% comprises railway projects, 41% road projects, and 3% irrigation
Promoted by Subhash Agarwal of Bhubaneswar and his three brothers, ARSS Infrastructure Projects (AIPL) provides construction services for railway infrastructure, roads & highways and irrigation projects. Originally incorporated in May 2000 as ARSS Stones, the company changed its name to ARSS Infrastructure Projects in May 2005. Initially, it took up railway contracts mainly in and gradually expanded to zonal jurisdictions of East Coast Railway, South Eastern Railway, South East Central Railway, Southern Railway and North Western Railway. Its expertise in railway construction projects extends to earthwork, major and minor bridges, supply of ballast, sleepers, laying of sleepers and rails, and linking of tracks. Over the years, it has diversified its field of activities into other construction segments such as development and construction of roads, highways, bridges, irrigation projects, and EPC activities for railways. AIPL has crusher plants at six locations in various districts of Orissa and necessary equipment required for quarrying and crushing granite stone to produce required sizes of rock products for railway track ballast or highway work or any other civil construction work.
Some of the standalone and joint venture projects currently being executed include the Rs 208- crore Cuttak-Paradeep Road construction and widening project, the Rs 261-crore rail infrastructure work for Jindal Steel & Power's Angul project, and construction of roadbed including minor & major bridges, facilities and general electrification works on the Haridaspur-Paradeep new broad-gauge (BG) line.

Strengths
Strong unexecuted order book of Rs 2877.53 crore as on 10 January 2010 and significantly diversified order book comprising 41% railway projects, 41% road projects, 3% irrigation projects, and balance others. Moreover, orders from government and government entities amounted to 87.5% of the order book as on January 10, 2010.
Has successfully executed over 86 projects involving construction of over 200 km of railway tracks, 300 km of roads & highways, 10 minor & major bridges and other general civil engineering works over nine years. Given the strong investment lined up in the country, both in the road sector as well as by the Railways including the dedicated rail freight corridor project, is well positioned to capitalise on it.
Has strong relationship with clients such as Rail Vikas Nigam, RITES, and various departments of the Orissa government. About 73.11 % of its order book as on 10 January 2010 comprised repeat orders.

Weak Point
There are a number of pending litigations against the company and/or the promoters and group companies, including a criminal case.
Has expanded its presence and pursued orders outside Orissa like Chattisgarh, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Haryana and Tamil Nadu. Still, contracts outside Orissa are limited.
Had negative cash flow from operating activities in the fiscal ended March 2008 (FY 2008) as also nine months ended December 2009.

Valuation
AIPL's revenue grew 99% to Rs 624.38 crore in FY 2009 and net profit was up by 90% to Rs 51.04 crore. The EPS for FY 2009 works out to Rs 33.9 and Rs 34.4 on post-IPO equity at the lower and upper price band, respectively. The P/E works out to 12.1 times and 12.9 times on the lower and upper price band, respectively. This is comparatively higher than players such as PBA Infrastructure and MSK Projects, which quote at P/E of 6.8 times and 10.8 times their FY 2009 earning. However, the offer is at a discount to J Kumar Infrastructure and Tantia Constructions which quotes at 12.3 and 13.7 times of their FY 2009 earning. But the scrip is offered at 9.3 times to 10.0 times the annualised EPS of 44.3 to 45.0 for the nine months ended December 2009 on the lower and upper band.

you may apply for this ipo for decent listing gains & also a fruitful investment for long-term(1year).

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Sumeet Industries Ltd

2010-02-07T11:51:00.000+05:30

Sumeet Industries Ltd (Code 514211)

- Sumeet Industries Ltd is a diversified conglomerate marching towards establishing its presence in entire Polyester Fabrics Value Chain (Manufacturing Pet Chips and POY / FDY directly from MEG and PTA, Twisting & Texturising, Weaving and Dying) will enable the company to offer premium products at extremely competitive price and boost its profitability margin and market share. There is huge value unlocking seen in near future!!!

While browing through the results of some companies I came across this interesting company called Sumeet industries. Out of the glare and glitz of the broader market this company is expanding massively. And the good thing is that its expansion is likely to be completed by the end of 3rd quarter. Thus the results for 3rd and 4th quarter of FY10 is going to be substantially higher.
Current price : Rs 21.40

Target price : Rs 75

Period of holding : 1 year
Lets see what the company is trying to do.

Sumeet industries is a manufacturer and exporter of polyester and polypropelene yarn and woven fabric.
During the period FY04 to FY09 sales have grown from Rs 34.24 crores to approx Rs 157.79 crores which is approximately a five fold increase or a 36% CAGR. Correspondingly the PAT (Profit after tax) has also grown from Rs 81.56 lacs in FY04 to Rs 3.81 crores in FY09 which is again a CAGR of 36%. However the EPS has not increase in that proportion. That is because the equity base has been expanded. And the reason is simple - for expansion.
It has setup fully imported C.P. PLANT of 100000 Tons per annum capacity and this has started operations from the 1st of July 2009. It is also setting up a 10’ lines of Polyester POY / FDY Spinning Plant with annual installed capacity of 48300 Tons per annum as Expansion Cum Backward Integration Project. This is expected to be operational by the end of 3rd quarter FY10. You must be wondering what do these expansion mean.
a) Using the CP plant pet chips which were earlier bought from the market will be produced within the company which will reduce cost substantially and will also be very much competitive and the company will be in a position to compete in the market in its price strategy with its peer group.

b) The polyester capacity that the company currently has is 12500 Tons per annum. So the expansion means a fourfold increase in capacity.
So atleast a fourfold increase in profits is what we can safely assume only from the capacity expansion. Also as per last financial years accounts raw materials consumed is approx 61% of sales. Thus even if we assume a 10% decrease in cost due to CP plant the net profits are likely to increase quite substantially. Even on a conservative basis its truly a 5 bagger atleast in the next 12 months.

A verbatim transcript of an interview with Shankar Lal Somani (Promoter, Sumeet Industries Ltd) on CNBC-TV18

You have recently got a big order of about Rs 20 crore from Egypt. When is that expected to be executed for polyester chips? When will we see a trickle in terms of your topline?

We were in the expansion project of Rs 150 crore polyester filament yarn. First part we had already completed before six months. Now we are near about completion all our expansion plans and we had already got export order of Rs 20 crore from Egypt, our new product chips.

When will this sum of Rs 20 crore reflect in your books fully?

We had already exported some quantity and will be exported within two months

Currently what is your capacity? What capacity utilization would you be functioning at? Can we expect this topline on a quarterly basis to now clock in an average basis of about Rs 100 crore was that an aberration last quarter?

We are already running at 100% capacity but some expanded capacity will be started by in this month currently. At the end of current month our capacity will be 100%

There has been a huge jump in your revenue figures and your profitability as well this quarter. What do you hope to close the year-end in terms of your revenue?

In turnover base, earlier it was Rs 125 crore. By completing this expansion, our turnover will be Rs 700-800 crore. So the turnover will be five-seven times. Turnover and profit will increase correspondingly.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

BUY MIC Electronics (Investment folio) TGT........

2010-02-06T15:43:00.002+05:30

BSE: 532850 NSE: MIC

Rec. Price;44.05

MIC is the only company in India to have the ‘design-to-manufacture’ capability for manufacture of LED video display systems. The company provides customized solutions based on its customer needs, location, display, and purpose.
The fourth generation lighting, LED lighting is making definite in-roads into the general lighting market. It is being reported that electricity for lighting costs US$ 185 bn. annually, world over, and consumes 2300 Twh of power and generates about 2 bn. tones of CO2 annually. Since LEDs are about 10 times more efficient than incandescent lights, and since Governments in many countries are formulating favorable policies of incentives, it is expected that LED lighting will have rapid growth in the next several years. Lighting is said to represent an annual US$ 130 bn. opportunity. This includes lamps, ballasts, luminaries and controls, with lamps accounting for ~30% of the total or US$ 40 bn. Since LED luminaries are all inclusive with lights and controls, the figure can be much higher. The forecast is that LEDs could account for ~4% of the lamp market by the year 2011. OSRAM projects that LEDs could account for one-third of the general lighting market by 2020. Philips is more aggressive in claiming 50% penetration by 2015 and 90% by 2020. It is only natural to expect that the trends in India will be similar – at least qualitatively.
MIC has successfully completed the development of Passenger Information Display System based on the Satellite Imaging for Rail Navigation (SIMRAN) technology. MIC is the only company in the country to have received the approval from Research Design and Standards Organisation (RDSO) of Indian Railways. Supplies of these displays have already commenced. The Indian Railways has announced an ambitious plan to modernize 599 stations and is replacing the existing Single colour Passenger Information displays with True Color LED Passenger Information displays.
MIC being the only Indian company approved by the RDSO, and are looking at a business opportunity of more than Rs. 700 Crore over the next four to five years from this segment

Its products find various applications including:

Sport and live events;
Advertising applications covering electronic billboard/hoardings, news advertisement ticker displays;
Indoor applications including ones at shopping malls, airports, railways, and bus stations; and
Mobile applications.

MIC is the only company to have supplied the full spectrum of coach lights, fitted in a running coach and also the only company to obtain RDSO clearance. This segment alone can provide more than Rs.1000 crore market in the coming years. In respect of the emergency lights, MIC is the major supplier enjoying around 50% share of the Railway market.

The fiscal year 2008-09 with annual revenues of Rs. 297.64 Crore and Profit after Tax at Rs. 63.95 Crore.
During the year 2008-09, MIC had achieved a turnover level (including other income) of Rs.242.57 crore as against Rs.314.01 crore in 2007-08. The company sold 6865 LED display modules and 7141 units of LED Lighting Products in 2008-09.The fall in turnover is due to conscious shift from communications segment to media segment for reasons of profitability. Despite this fall in overall turnover, the company earned a post tax profit of Rs.64.41 crore in 2008-09 as against Rs.65.82 crore in 2007-08. The Profit After Tax (PAT), expressed as a percentage of turnover, has significantly improved from 20.96% in 2007-08 to 26.55% in 2008-09

MIC has four subsidiaries;

1. InfoSTEP Inc, USA and

2. MIC Technologies (Australia) Pty. Ltd. Australia,

3. MIC Electronics Inc. USA, and

4. Maave Electronics Pvt. Ltd. India,

Market Cap 443.31

* EPS (TTM) 5.72
* P/E 7.70
* P/C 7.42

* Book Value 28.80
* Price/Book 1.53
Div(%) 20.00
Div Yield(%) 0.91

Market Lot 1.00
Face Value 2.00
Industry P/E 18.83

* As per latest stand alone adjusted profit after extra-ordinary items.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

BUY Parekh Aluminex Limited (Investment folio) TGT........

2010-02-03T12:09:00.000+05:30

BSE: 532606 NSE: PARAL

Rec. Price: 149.40
Parekh Aluminex Limited is one of the biggest manufacture in Aluminium Foil Rolls and Aluminium Lids and exporter of Aluminium Foil Containers (AFC), in India. They are the single largest player in the organized sector in India. In the ten years of existence, they have carved a niche for their products in not just India, but the entire region, emerging as the leading name in AFCs in the entire sub-continent.
The total income grew by 41% to Rs. 4,223.26 million compared to Rs. 1,123.20 million for the year ended 31st March, 2008.
The financial year 2008-2009 has been a challenging year for Indian industry. In spite of slowdown in Global and Indian economies, the Company has maintained its growth.
PBDIT and Net Profit after Tax stood at Rs.726.86 million and Rs.381.40 million respectively compared to Rs.484.98 million and Rs.261.19 million for corresponding previous year.
Retained earnings increased to 58%.
With two manufacturing facilities situated strategically close together in the tax haven of the Union Territory of Dadra and Nagar Haveli, India,
Parekh Aluminex Limited has signed of a marketing agreement with one of the largest manufacturers of aluminium in the world to market its products in Germany.
Further, Parekh Aluminex Limited has acquired a Singapore based company by taking over its plant & machinery for making Aluminium Foil Containers, along with its customer base. As a result business of South East Asian Airlines such as Emirates Airlines, Singapore Airlines, Thai Airways amongst others have been added to the company’s kitty.

Market Cap 190.22
* EPS (TTM) 32.98
* P/E 4.46
* P/C 3.29

* Book Value 205.18
* Price/Book 0.72
Div(%) 25.00
Div Yield(%) 1.70

Market Lot 1.00
Face Value 10.00
Industry P/E 15.40

* As per latest stand alone adjusted profit after extra-ordinary items.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Affair between the Stock Market & RBI Monetary Policies

2010-02-03T12:04:00.000+05:30

Is it so? So, what do you think, is there actually an affair between the two? Who is the more dominating one? Does a change in one’s mood immediately affect the other? Or are they like the timepass couple, quite indifferent to each other.

Before you think this is like some relationship consulting blog, let me confirm it is purely a financial one. So, let’s get back to our couple- monetary policies & stock market.

Does a slight twist in the monetary policies affects the stocks or is it the other way?

We all probably read in today’s paper that our Finance Minister Mr. Pranab Mukherjee has asked banks to cut interest rates and provide cheap credit so as to boost the economy. This is a way in which cheap credit is made available to the public in hand.

But how does a bank increase credit in our hands? It is here that the RBI comes into picture. The RBI through its monetary policies like Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) can increase/decrease the credit available to the banks.

Cash Reserve Ratio is a bank regulation that sets the minimum reserves each bank must hold to customer deposits and notes.The commercial banks have to keep this as a deposit with the RBI.

Statutory Liquidity Ratio is the amount which a bank has to maintain in the form:

Statutory Liquidity Ratio refers to the amount that the commercial banks require to maintain in the form of cash, or gold or govt. approved securities. This Statutory Liquidity Ratio is determined as percentage of total demand and percentage of time liabilities. Time Liabilities refer to the liabilities, which the commercial banks are liable to pay to the customers on anytime demand. This percentage is fixed by the RBI.

The objectives of CRR & SLR are:

1. To restrict the expansion of bank credit.

2. To augment the investment of the banks in Government securities (SLR).

3. To ensure solvency of banks.

The Effect on the Stock Market:

Let’s see what happens when RBI increases CRR and SLR.– If RBI decides to increase the percentages of CRR & SLR the available credit at the disposal of the banks goes down. This in turn has an effect on the credit available to the public because they can borrow less. The increased cost of borrowing also hits the borrower.

But how does it affect us as an investor? Due to lack of available credit, we (as in the public) demand less of goods & services, which ultimately has an impact on the profit of companies. It thus, does affect the prices of the stocks too! So, did you see the indirect effect these policy actions of RBI have on the stock market?

It is difficult to predict to what extent or how the stock market will react but it does bring about a negative/positive buzz in the financial community. That is why it is important to keep a track of what is happening to the economy on the whole. It is like a big cycle.

The exact opposite happens when the RBI decides to cut these percentages.

Conclusion:

As far as today’s news article is concerned, getting more credit available in the hands of the public will sure boost the economy.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Are you ready for 4200 Nifty?

2010-02-02T16:54:00.000+05:30

7 Reasons Why Nifty would go to 4200 and Sensex 13800

Bulls exhausted; false breakouts globally signal an end to this rally; we hence expect a

large correction, which is at least a 50% retracement of the entire run.

Multiple trend lines (Fan line) breaks across the world.

5-wave impulsive moves complete; Nifty and Brazil Bovespa remain classic examples,

FTSE, DAX, CAC also look complete.

‘Bearish Outside Engulfing’ month for BSE Sensex (CMP-16357, TGT-12800), Metals

(CMP-15962, TGT-10500), Autos (CMP-6953, TGT-5000) and Cap Goods (CMP-

13125, TGT-10000).

Ending Diagonals/Bearish Wedges visible on many indices.

Momentum sell offs after negative price/momentum divergence.

Dollar to further spook the markets, DXY bullish reversals in place; target 83-84, INR

heading back to 49-50.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

PAE Ltd. - Into Solar energy space. You may not be aware of it!!!

2010-02-02T11:32:00.001+05:30

BSE: 517230

We all have to take cognizance of the fact that ever increasing global energy consumption equals environmental disaster unless we move to a de-carbonized energy system. While IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has recently been lambasted for creating too much hype around melting of glaciers by 2035 and that too without doing a detailed study on the same (they picked up some content present on web), one can still cannot sit back and say that we have enough fossil fuel for our lifetime, and global warming isn't going to effect us.
Countries like China, are already putting in great deal of money on securing their energy needs from both fossil fuels and from alternative sources of energy. In India, many smaller companies at their own level are working on various alternative sources of energy. Solar and Wind are the two forms of energy, most of them are working on. Solar energy has had its share of criticism on various grounds, most important of them being cost and availability of raw material, which in most of the cases is silicon. So, keeping the above factors in mind, I thought, why not discuss a company that is into potential alternative source of energy, and may not even have to face constraints with respect to availability of raw material. The company I am talking about is PAE Ltd. @41 I am sure most of you may not be aware of the company
operations. Well PAE Ltd. is not into Solar Panels manufacturing on its own. On standalone basis, it is in the business of marketing and distribution of Lead Acid Storage Batteries to provide power storage in power back up systems. In addition to batteries, PAE also buys and/or builds power back-up systems from manufacturers and sells to OE, dealers and end users. It also provides total power solutions to end customers by doing installations, commissioning and service of large power back-up systems.
So, basically it is into power related business, but most of it is in the form of distribution and marketing. This is also evident from its low margin results. On a net sale of Rs 250 crore for FY 2008-09, it could only make a net profit of Rs 5.36 crore. Now, the most important thing is that the company has forayed into Solar Panels manufacturing, but not on its own, rather by taking a controlling interest (51%) in Shurjo Energy Private Limited, which was in need of funds to expand its capacity to 10MW from 2MW. In terms of the agreement, the company has totally invested Rs 5.06 crore in Shurjo Energy for acquiring 51% stake in the company.
Now, going into the details of Shurjo Energy Pvt. Ltd., it is into manufacturing solar panels using CIGS Coppe Indium Gallium diSelenide (CIGS), thin film technology which has "off grid" and "on grid" applications. The company has its manufacturing facility in Kalyani, West Bengal. The difference with this company is in its use of CIGS technology that does not use silicon as the active photovoltaic semiconductor and therefore does not suffer from any raw material supply problems. Shurjo also recently passed IEC 61646 & IEC 61730 tests (The certifications required for solar modules used in solar power plants in most markets worldwide) for its CIGS solar modules, opening up the Grid-connect market for its modules.
Studies show that CIGS material actually yields more energy per kW installed, compared to traditional crystalline products, due to its better performance in low light conditions (Source : web).
As mentioned earlier the installed capacity stood at just 2MW, which will be ramped up to 10MW. One cannot expect major contribution to revenue and profitability even if the capacity is ramped up to 10MW, this is because the company has only 51% stake and therefore accounting for minority interest shall only bring half the profit. However, for all those interested in investing in companies foraying into green technology, should definitely keep a tab on the developments and there impact on the performance of the company.

Market Cap 38.79
* EPS (TTM) 5.40
* P/E 7.55
* P/C 6.41

* Book Value 35.41
* Price/Book 1.15
Div(%) 15.00
Div Yield(%) 3.68

Market Lot 1.00
Face Value 10.00
Industry P/E 47.19

* As per latest stand alone adjusted profit after extra-ordinary items.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Buy First Leasing Company of India

2010-02-01T11:36:00.000+05:30

INVESTMENT IDEA@ 57.45
BSE Code: 500145 & NSE Code: Firstlease
Market Cap: 120.22

EPS (TTM): 15.01

Face Value: 10.00

P/E : 3.51

P/C : 2.22

Book Value : 92.83

Price/Book : 0.57

Div(%) : 18.00

Div Yield(%) : 3.41

Industry P/E : 18.84

Buy for Short Term Target Rs. 75/- Medium Term Target Rs. 100/- Long Term Target Rs. 150/-.

Operator call and not mine.Am out of short term stuff.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Entegra Ltd.

2010-01-31T18:19:00.001+05:30

INVESTMENT IDEA@ 37.50

Entegra is primarily in to the renewable energy

sector, with its 400 MW Maheshwar Hydro Power

project and also into solar and integrated

renewable energy (RE) solutions. This could be a

interesting play for investment in renewable

sector. It is one of the best placed companies to

capture the emerging opportunities in green

energy on the strength of huge cash flows from

soon to start Hydro power project.

Entegra has created two primary business verticals:

(i) Enner Green Resources - which focuses on
development & generation of renewable energy

(ii) Enner Green Solutions - Which provides
customized renewable energy solutions and
undertakes EPC projects

Entegra is a holding company for all current and new

Renewable energy ventures of MW Corp group,

formed by Mukul Kasliwal & Warij Kasliwal.

Flagship project of the group is - Shree Maheshwar

Hydro power project, a 400 MW run of the river

Hydro Power project. Entegra is holding 68.73% stake

in this SPV, and intends to increase this to 85.6% by

the time project is fully commissioned [Dec’10].

Shree Maheshwar Hydro is setting up a 400 MW Hydro

power project [40MW X 10 turbines] which will be partially

commissioned in June ’10 [first 5 turbines 5X40 MW] and

rest by Dec. 2010 [all 10 turbines].

This is one of the largest Hydro power project in

private sector [Bigger then JP Hydro’s 300 MW]; with

capability to generate 31.8% ROE. The Company has

long term PPA, along with attractive and secure

incentive structure for payment from MPSEB.

Using huge cash flows from this hydro power

project, Entegra plans to build its Renewable

Energy empire in years to come [mainly Hydro & Solar]
High Potential for Renewable energy
• Potential in renewable energy: India has a power generation potential of ~90,000MW from

different renewable energy sources in the country.

With increased commitments ahead of

Copenhegan meet, the Government need to focus

on tapping the renewable energy sources from

13,310MW at present to 15,000MW by 2011 and

80,000MW by 2032.

• Hydro power opportunity: India ranks fifth in
world for exploitable hydro potential, with

economic exploitable hydro power potential of

~150,000MW but existing capacity of just

36,885MW (~24%).

• Solar Energy Opportunity: GOI recently
approved the ambitious Jawaharlal Nehru

National Solar Mission (JNNSM) which plans to set

up 20,000MW grid solar power and 2,000MW offgrid

solar power by 2022 in three phases of

implementation. The plan targets to set up

1,100MW grid connected solar plants and 200MW

capacity equivalent off-grid solar applications in

the first phase till 2012-13.

High ROE generation

The project is expected to generate higher energy levels considering the water flow from the upstream

projects – 1,000MW Indira Sagar and 520MW Omkareshwar. As per the incentive structure,

considering 99% utilisation and average generation of 1,370 mn units p.a. the project can earn

approximately 16.3% additional RoE taking the total effective ROE to 31.8%. The project has no

obligation to provide free power to the home state like other projects and in the event of default in

payment by MPEB, SMHPCL can supply to third party buyers at market rates, which are highly

lucrative.

Project Nearing Completion

Project implementation (physical progress) was first started in 1998 but was stalled in September

2001 due to funding and other issues. Construction work recommenced in November 2005 after

submission of a revised restructuring package. All land required for the Project construction has been

acquired.

Of the total cost of Rs 27.6bn on the project, SMHPCL has already spent around Rs 19bn.

Approximately 93% of the Project civil work has been completed and construction of all 10 turbines is

currently in progress. SMHPCL expects to commission its first 5 turbines (40MW each) by June

2010 and the balance 5 turbines by Dec. 2010.

Attractive Valuations:
The latest bench-marks for Hydro-power projects have indicative valuation of appx. Rs

6-7 Crs per MW. This project is valued around Rs 3.5 Crs per MW at completion stage

[June’10], thus offers good upside to investors in medium term. Accumulate the stock for

return of 30-50% in next 6 months. Traders can look forward to a 15-20% kind of

return in next 2 months time frame

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Great results from Spanco Ltd....

2010-01-28T21:27:00.001+05:30

Spanco Ltd has come out with stupendeous results.....
code:508976
cmp:66
For the qr ended Dec 09 the np went up from 1.60 cr last year to 18.96 cr this year giving an eps of 6.78 for the qr.with topline going up from 170 cr to 378 cr.
Nine months topline is now at 813 cr and hence I can assume that for whole year it will cross 1000 cr very easily.....
Recently,Spanco Telesystems was in the news for submitting the lowest bid for BSNL''s Rs 7,500-crore telecom infrastructure contract. The contract consists of providing telecom towers, power plants, generator sets and other infrastructure.In the case of BSNL contracts, the lowest bidder typically gets 50% of the total contract work, while the remaining half is equally divided among the second and third lowest bidders. According to a source, Spanco is currently in the negotiation phase with BSNL and the final order size is likely to be Rs 3,750 crore. It is a build, own, operate, and transfer (BOOT) contract spanning over seven years.BSNL has also floated a tender for IT related work with an expected size of Rs 6,000 crore. Spanco has tied up with applications developer Amdocs and IBM and has jointly bid for the tender. BSNL is likely to announce the lowest bidder for this project in a few weeks.Spanco has grossed Rs 622 crore in revenue in the last four quarters.BSNL''s contract would help the topline increase at a rapid pace since the company expects to earn over Rs 1,000 crore in revenue in the first year of the contract with an operating margin of 14-15%. This may provide some stability to its current margin, which has been fluctuating between 6% and 17%. Spanco has been aggressively looking for opportunities in the telecom and BPO space. However, it has yet to achieve financial stability. Its cash flow from operations is negative, indicating that the company is still in the financing mode and will take some more time to generate a cash flow from operations. It also has to improve its receivables collection. The debtor days or days for which sales are outstanding has increased to 169 days in FY08 from 122 days in the previous year.While the future for Spanco looks promising, the company has to improve its financial parameters to run healthy operations.All said and done,investors can consider an exposure to the counter at dips.Can prove to be a great buy if all augurs well for the company.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Understanding the Dollar Index

2010-01-26T15:50:00.000+05:30

Dollar Index is actually a basket of currencie against which the value of the Dollar is measured. There are six currencies but the Euro is the most important. Here are the weights:
Euro = 57.6%
Japanese yen = 13.6%

British pound = 11.9%

Canadian dollar = 9.1%

Sweden krona = 4.2%

Swiss franc = 3.6%
So, the Dollar Index is heavily influenced by the Euro, and, remember that the Swiss Franc is closely related to the Euro so the influence is actually more than visible.
When the Dollar rises in value to the currencies listed above, the Dollar Index moves up. The Index measures the strength of the dollar.When the Dollar Index falls, it means that the Dollar is getting weaker. (As the Index falls, I.T. stocks in India face heavy weather because the Rupee may be getting stronger.)

Anticipation of a weak dollar pushes money into emerging markets. The arithmetic goes something like this: One dollar fetches Rs 48. So an investor sells his dollar, buys the Rupee and invests Rs 48 in Indian stocks. Let us say that the market remains where it is. The dollar becomes weaker and now fetches only Rs 44. The Investor can sell his shares for Rs 48 and buy 1.1 dollar (approx) and send this money back. Therefore, a weak dollar encourages movement of capital to emerging economies.
The reverse will be true if the Dollar begins to appreciate.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

If you follow this ideology you will always earn profits

2010-01-26T15:46:00.001+05:30

Once upon a time in a village a man appeared who announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for Rs 10. The villagers seeing that there were many monkeys went out in the forest and started catching them. The man bought 1000 monkeys @ Rs 10 and as supply started to diminish, The villagers started to stop their effort.

He announced that now he would buy for Rs 20. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again. Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms.

The offer rate increased to Rs 25 and the supply of monkeys became so low, that it was an effort to even see a monkey let alone catch it.

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at Rs 50! However, since he had to go to the city on some business his assistant would now buy on behalf of the man. In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers "Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell them to you at Rs 35 and when the man returns you can sell them back to him for Rs 50." The villagers queued up with all their saving to buy the monkeys.
Phir na woh aadmi mila, na us ka assistant...........

Sirf bandar hee bandar.....

Let Assume; monkeys = Shares
50 wala tha FII

35 wala tha apna Minister

Baki sab.....???...main-aap aur Bagpiper

Cheers

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Alok Industries Ltd

2010-01-26T12:43:00.001+05:30

BSE Code: 521070

CMP: Rs.24.6

Book Value: Rs.35.47

EPS: Rs.3.41

Market Cap: Rs.1490 Cr

Introduction: Alok Industries Ltd is a fully integrated textile company and is amongst India’s largest textile manufacturers. It was established in 1986 as a private limited company, with its first polyester texturing plant being set up in 1989. It became a public limited company in 1993. Over the years, it has expanded into weaving, knitting, processing, home textiles and garments. And to ensure quality and cost efficiencies it has integrated backward into cotton spinning and manufacturing partially oriented yarn through the continuous polymerization route. It also provides embroidered products through Grabal Alok Impex Ltd., its associate company.

Alok Industries Ltd, has recently entered the domestic retail segment through a wholly owned subsidiary, Alok Retail India Limited, with a chain of stores named ‘H&A’ that offer garments and home textiles at attractive price points. It has also ventured into the realty space through wholly owned subsidiaries with investments in some prestigious projects in Mumbai. The company has focused on world class infrastructure, best-in-class technology, uncompromising quality standards and dynamic product innovation. Added to these has been its constant desire to surpass customer expectations. Today, Alok Industries Ltd represents the future of India’s textile industry.

Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 36.69%% while the general public holds 63.20% of the shares of the company. The FIIs hold 20.92%, while the DIIs hold 12.59% of the shares of the company.

Financials: For Q2FY10, the company came out with good set of numbers. The total sales of the company for Q2FY10 came out to be Rs.975.5 Cr as against Rs.698.14 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company for Q2FY10 came out to be Rs.57 Cr as against Rs.42.15 Cr in the same period previous year; however, this on an expanded equity capital of Rs.605.08 Cr as against Rs.196.97 Cr in the same period previous year.
Triggers:
• The company charting out strategies under which it would open stores in Malls after analyzing the cost effects.

• The company has a blue chip international customer base comprising of world renowned retailers, importers and brands. With commencement of spinning of cotton yarn, the company has achieved complete integration.

• The Terry Towel project, which was part of Phase I & II, was commissioned in FY09. The Company has also successfully commissioned Continuous Polymerisation (CP) Plant at Saily (Silvassa). Phase III and Phase IV of the expansion of the Company's capacities, aggregating to Rs.1, 100 Cr and Rs.1, 180 Cr stands largely completed; the balance portion is progressing well and is expected to be completed very soon.

• The Company's textiles operations have shown encouraging growth trends, both in the domestic and in the exports markets. The capacity expansions which the Company had been putting in place for the past few years are nearing completion and the volume increases are starting to be reflected in operations and sales.

• Marketing initiatives across the world have both de-risked Alok Industries Ltd as well as contributed to a healthy order book. The Company believes that its scale of operations and integration across the textile chain will, in future, offer significant advantages in both cost and revenue.

• Given the increasing spending capacity of the middle-class consumer segment in India, retail remains an exciting prospect over the medium term. The Company's retail initiative is operated through its wholly owned subsidiary Alok Retail India Ltd., which has opened ninety 'H&A' stores across India. The Company wishes to expand the 'H&A' footprint to over 300 stores during the current financial year.

• The Company's investment in Grabal Alok (UK) Ltd, as part of the Group's overseas retail foray is now starting to show improved results. The stores, which are spread across the UK and offer quality apparel and fashion products at affordable prices, are also in the process of being rebranded from “qs’ to “Store Twenty One”. The second half of FY 2008-09 has reflected improved topline--thanks to cost rationalization and efficiency maximization measures, the 'middle line' has also shown improvement. This encouraging trend has been carried on during the first quarter of the current financial year as well.

Conclusion: From the charts it has been found that the stock is trading above it 50 and 200 days moving averages, which is encouraging. Considering the other chartical parameters it can be concluded that the stock can be purchased at any price above Rs.24 for a target of Rs.31—32 in the next 30 days time frame.

Note: The stock was recommended to the Paid Groups on 21th January, 2010, in the Report.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

I Hope Now Investors Members Are Aware From Such SMS In Future.

2010-01-25T19:42:00.001+05:30

Dear Members

I Am Writing This Post For All Innocent & New Members.

Please Read Carefully Below

In Stock Market Currently Receiving Bulk SMS From Unknown User Is Very Common Things.

Lots Of Innocent Investors Trapped Badly In Such SMS In Which Sender Sent Very ROSY SMS On Unknown Stocks.

For Understanding This I Give You A Example

Note :: All Price & Data Are Imaginary For Understanding This

:: How Stock Opertor Dumb Stock ::

XYZ Stock Traded @ 100 Level On Exchange With Low Volume.

Share Capital :: 50 Lacs Shares.

Operator/Owner Hold : 47.50 Lacs Shares

Public Holding : 2.5 Lac Shares

Stock Always Moves In A Narrow Range Daily @ 100 - 110 With Hardly Any Movement Or News About Such Stock Because Of Low Public Holding.

We Hardly Even Know Name Of Such Stock.

Now The Operator/Owner Of Such Stock Wants To Exit From Such Stock

For This First They Want To Create Some Volume In Stock And For This Stock Split Is Best Way Of Creating Volume.

Then Company Announce Split In Company Stock Price

Split In The Ratio Of 10 : 1

After Split Share Capital :: 5 Crore Shares

After Split Operator/Owner Hold :: 4.75 Crore Shares

Public Holding :: 25 Lac Shares

After Split Stock Traded @ 10 - 12 Rs. Range For Quite Some Time.

Now Real Game Begins

Read Carefully

After Stock Split Operator First Move Stock Price To 10 To 14 In Five - Six Trading Session Just For Attracting Investors.

{ Its Very Easy Work As Operator Owner Hold Almost 95% Of Share Capital & The Easily Moves Stock Price}

After Hitting 2 - 3 Upper Circuit Almost All Traderrs Investors Are Talking Of The Stocks & Attrat Towards The Stock.

Then Price Hovering Around 15 - 16 For Some Trading Session.

:: Now What Operator Lobby Do ::

Operator Lobby First Purchase Bulk SMS From Any BULK Sms Provider Which Is Easily Available On Net.

I Understand Rate Of BULK SMS Is Around 0.03 Paisa Per SMS.

If Operator Purchase 1 Crore SMS From SMS Provider Then Its Cost Would Be Around

10000000 * 0.03 = 3 Lacs

After Purchasing BULK SMS Service

Operator Lobby Collect Mobile No. Data Of Mobile Users Which Is Easily Available.

Operator Try To Collect Mobile No. Of Stock Traders & Investors Which Can Be Easily Collect From Market.

After Collectiing Data Of Mobile No. Operator Lobby Created A Very ROSY SMS For Suggesting A BUY CALL ON XYZ Stock.

Example Of SMS ::

BUY BUY BUY XYZLTD. @ MARKET PRICE Of 16 Target In 1 Month Is 30 Rs.

JUST BUY BUY BUY Dont Miss The Stock.

BUY Only Small Quantity Of 300 - 500 Shares , Fast Fast Dont Miss The Opportunity.

{ Sender Is Always Unknown }

And Then Send This Very Very Rosy SMS To Almost 25 Lacs Users.

{ They Try To Send Such SMS To Only Stock Investors / Traders }

And Then IN Next 3 - 4 Trading Days Operator Lobby Send Same SMS To Those Mobile User 3 - 4 Times.

25 Lacs Users * 4 Times Same Sms = 1 Crore { Which Operator Lobby Purchase From Web SMS Services }
Some Rough Calculation : :

Stock Operator Sent Rosy SMS To 25 Lacs User { 4 Times }

25 Lacs Users Receive SMS

1. Only 70 % Mobile User Read The SMS.

Rest 30% Deleted Without Reading.

2500000 * 70 % = 1750000

No. Of User Who Read SMS = 17.50 Lacss

2. Only 25% Is Stock Traders/Investor From Those ( 17.50 Users )

1750000 * 25 % = 437500 Users

Then No. Of User Who May Intrested In Such SMS = 437500 Users

3. Only 30% From Intrest Users Thinking Of BUY Stock

Then No. Of Users Who May BUY

437500 * 30 = 131250 User

You Know What I Feel Is That Normally Investors After Reading Such SMS Thinking Of BUY Only 300 - 400 Shares

They Think We Can Take Small Risk { Everyone Is Greedy & Wants To Double Money In Short Time }

Normally Experience Traders/Investors Also BUY As They Think Ki Zero Bhi Ho Gaya To Bhi Koi Vanda Nahi Hai.
In Greed Almost All Such Users Buy Small Quantity Of 100 - 500 Shares.

( Median Of Buying Qty Is Around 350 Shares }

Calculation Of Investors/Traders BUY Quantity Who Bought Because Of ROSY SMS ::

IF All Such Investors/Traders Buy 350 Shares Then

131250 ( USERS ) * 350 ( Share Quantity ) = 45937500

{ Almost 4.50 Crore Shares Greeedy & Innocent Inestors Buy }
4.5 Crore Shares Innocent , New , Greedy , & Also Users Which Are Not Intrested In Market BUY Such Stock Because Of Such Rosy SMS About Company.

:: Intresting Calculation ::

:: After Split ::

After Split Share Capital Of Company :: 5 Crore Shares

After Split Operator/Owner Hold :: 4.75 Crore Shares

After Split Public Holding :: 25 Lac Shares

After ROSY SMS Drama

After SMS Drama Operator/Owner Stock Holding ::

25 Lacs Shares

Because Operator/Owner Dumb Almost 4.5 Crore Shares To Public @ Higher Level.

After SMS Drama Public Holding ::

4.75 Crore Shares

As I Tell You Above How Investors Buy 4.5 Crore Shares.

After That Stock Price Daily Comes Down Down Down Down Down Down Down.....

And Investors Are Just See See See Downmove.......

Because There Is No BUYERS After That Only Seller Seller Sellers.....

I Hope Now Investors Members Are Aware From Such SMS In Future.

Never Ever Buy Such STOCK Only Because You Received A SMS.

**** Aware From Such SMS **** & Join

trendwatch-india.blogspot.com

Always remember...no force or single person can move stock.Its a game of mass

psychology.We look at chart ,collect information and just spread it .......free of cost.

Always Remember :Never pay money to anybody ..who is asking for it.Just ask any Analyst (TV ,Media ,Print or Website wale Analyst ko pucho............What is their success ratio in Day trading???A Million $ Question ...Doing Bla-Bla on TV ,writing on web is very easy......but while u trade .....u are playing with live wire

wish you happy trading to all of you.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Mid Cap Rocket multibagger Stock Pick Recomendation For budget 2010 Traded in NSE BSE, Graphite India Limited

2010-01-24T16:59:00.000+05:30

Graphite India Limited GIL
GIL was . Incorporated in 1963 in collaboration with “The Great Lakes Carbon Corporation of USA”. Today with a combined capacity of 33,000 MT per annum spread over three plants at Durgapur, Bangalore and Nashik, GIL boasts of possessing the largest pool of technical personnel in Graphite technologies. While Graphite Electrodes still contribute to a major share of the total output, GIL has graduated to becoming a Graphite technology specialist, providing solutions with products for applications in the Metallurgical (ferrous & nonferrous), Chemical & Process and Aerospace. Strategic diversifications into specialty products has resulted in the setting up of a Specialty Division at Bangalore & an Impervious Graphite Equipment division at Nashik.

NSE Code : GRAPHITE

BSE Code: 509488

CMP NSE: 89.15

EPS For Last 4 Quarters : Rs 11.73

PE : 7.6

Major Share Holders as 30 Sept 2009

Life Insurance Corporation Of India is holding 4505809 Shares

Fidelity Northstar Fund Hold 7750000 Shares

Acrewood Management Limited Hold 11995625 Shares Which is Nearly 7 % stake

Recently Reliance AMC Picked up 464,649 Shares

Buy at CMP keeping Union budget 2010 in Mind

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Why is Stock Trading the best business in the world?

2010-01-21T13:48:00.000+05:30

for the following reasons:-

1.- Anytime, flexible timing (no 9-6 job, no 6am-10pm business complusions).

2 - From anywhere (can even trade from mt.everest or from antartica).

3 - No or minimum investment (a pc with internet connectivity, a demat account and a good head).

4- Minimum amount to start (Can buy even a single stock; even for a tea and samosa stall you need a shop etc worth a few lac rupees.

5- For other businesses you need a crore or more with no guarantee of profits and recovery of investment).

6- No office / shop / infra / furniture / ACs etc.(just need enough space to place your bum or plant your to feet, how many other businesses permit u that luxury?).

7- No employees - not even a chawkidar or a sweeper...no salaries...no labour law hassles.

8 - No overheads - like electricity, water and phone bills, rent, transportation etc.

9- No stocks, no stockyard, no deadstock , no sales tax / excise tax etc. headaches.

10 - No account keeping (your brokerage does it for you).

11- No inspector/permit hassles, no boss.

12- No tension of getting out of job, being sacked, recession, no "buri nazar" and "hafta" (always out of public glare).

13 - One of the best returns on investment (many getting 10-15% per month or even more).

14 - Can pack up your bag and retire at any time if you wish (how many other businesses allow u to wind up? it is said that - you don't own a business - the business owns you - and won't leave you that easily).

15-National development, people participate by contributing towards new startups which generate employment, yield tax, earn foreign currency, generate wealth and bring social prosperity.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

LEARNING SECTION-----The cognitive process of acquiring skill.

2010-01-21T13:03:00.002+05:30

4 golden rules before you invest in stocks

A stock broker makes money based on the traded value and hence most brokerage houses keep giving 'free' stock tips in all markets. Keep in mind that it is you who could make the losses. There are some basic rules you need to abide by if you don’t want to be cheated out of your money.
Rule 1: Study the tips before investing

Do the litmus test. Before you invest, test the tips suggested by analysts for a certain period of time before you take the plunge.
Most brokerage houses provide stock tips for no charge. They claim to have large research teams and churn out a large number of reports, yet provide it free of cost as a value added service. How do you think they sustain? They make money out of you; the more you trade, more money they make irrespective of whether you make money or not.
Rule 2: Research before you invest, not after!

Research the stock picks before investing. Also, ask your broker for detailed reports on the picks. Invest only if you are convinced that the long term prospects are good and if the company has a good long-term competitive advantage. Do not waste your time on tips that give you a trigger price and target price.
Rule 3: What goes up faster, comes down faster

Any statistics that you would have read in the peak would have had strong rationale for growth. However, be a little cautious when stocks/sectors have run up too much. High P/E multiples indicate that the stock market is discounting very high growth rates of the company in the future. It is difficult for a company to continuously maintain such high growth rates as the company keeps growing larger. The stocks could be re-rated downwards if the growth outlook for the stock changes in the market.
Rule 4: If you don’t have the time, use mutual funds

If you do not have the time to track each stock in your portfolio, do not invest directly in the equity market. Investing through the mutual funds in a Systematic Investment Plan can create significant value without having to get into detail on your individual stocks.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

JK Papers Ltd— STRONG BUY@50

2010-01-21T12:06:00.000+05:30

Sector — Pape
Listed — NSE, BSE.

Company Overview—

JK Paper Ltd. is a part of well known group JK organization a leading multi-product, multi-business group of India. J K Paper Ltd was formerly known as Central Pulp Mills, a member of HS Singhania group is originally promoted by Parkhe Group to manufacture Paper and Paper products. Company purchased a Pulp Drying Plant from Finland in 2001 to increase the output and realization of market pulp. Company enjoys the location advantage in respect of sourcing raw material. It sources all its bamboo requirements with in the 200 kms radius of the plant. Further for long term continuous source of raw material the company is running social forestry and farm forestry programs in 11 districts of Orissa and 3 districts of Andhra Pradesh, covering a total area of over 20,000 Hectare. The name of the company was changed to JK Paper Ltd from The Central Pulp Mills Ltd. JK Paper has a deep commitment to protecting the environment. Company is the first paper mill in India to have been accredited with ISO-14001 certification for the Environment Management System Standard. Company Paper has a research and development wing involved in developing high quality seedlings and helping farmers achieve better yields from their plantations.

Products & Services—

Company is an established name in the manufacture and marketing of paper. It has the distinction of being the largest manufacturer of branded copier paper in India. Company is also been consistently exporting its products to markets such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and several West Asian Countries. Company was first to introduce surface sized maplitho in India, first to introduce high quality bond paper 'Finesse' in A4 size consumer friendly retail packs of 100 sheets. Company was first to introduce laser paper in India. The company has introduced two new value added products i.e. MICR Cheque Paper and Cup-stock Board and both of them have well established in the market. Company is well known for its success in creating brand in paper industry with having top two paper brand i.e JK Copier & JK Easy Copier in its basket the company has initiated outsourcing of paper products in india. Company outsources JK Cote from an international producer, who produces as per the specification of JK Paper. JK Paper today has an combined installed capacity of 2,40,000 tpa with two integrated Paper Mills at JK Paper Mills, Raygarh, Orissa and Central Pulp Mills, Gujarat.

Company has quality benchmarks from its commencement, and continues to do so. Its major brands include JK Copier, JK Easy Copier, JK Evervite, JK Excel Bond, JK Bond, JK SHB Maplitho, CPM Parchment and JK MICR. Company has one of the largest distribution networks in the paper industry. With more than 100 wholesalers, over 1700 dealers, 10 warehouses and 4 regional offices spread across country, it has achieved matchless service levels. Nearly 50% of the exports are of branded products.

Recent development—

JK Paper plans to infuse Rs 14 billion to expand its manufacturing capacity by 1.5 lakh tons annually in the next three years. The proposed investment and expansions will take place over a period of two to three years. The company is producing 2.6 lakh tons of paper every year, more than the current capacity of 2.4 lakh tons. Going forward, it plans to increase the capacity by 1.5 lakh tons.

Valuation—
At current market price, stock is trading at attractive valuation of 4.9 P/E multiple of its FY2010 estimated EPS. We recommend investors "Strong Buy" on "JK Papers limited" with medium to long-term investment

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Gwalior Chemical Industries (GCIL):

2010-01-19T16:00:00.000+05:30

BSE Code: 532764

Book Value: Rs.80.33

EPS: Rs.38.69

P/E: 2.3

Market Cap: Rs.219.62

Accumulate: To be bought around the strong support of Rs.86

Target: Rs.105—Rs.115

Time: 2months

CMP@ 96
Introduction: Gwalior Chemical Industries (GCIL) is a producer of specialty chemical products at its two chemical facilities located at Nagda (Madhya Pradesh) and Ankleshwar (Gujarat). It has built a formidable presence in the specialty chemical industry and extensively catered to the needs of customers covering the agrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, dyes and flavours and fragrance industries. It also manufactures and sells special Viscose Dye Pigments catering to the textile sector. It caters to various industries like agrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, and dyes industries. It also produces Chlorotoluene range of products like benzyl chloride, benzaldeyhde, benzotrichloride, benzyl alcohol and its other derivatives. It also produces sulphur chloride range of products.

Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 59.98% while the general public holds 40.02%. The FIIs hold 2.90% while the Mutual Funds hold 8.37% of the shares of the company.

Triggers:

• The first and the foremost reason for recommending the scrip is the growth in the agrochemical segment where the growth in the agricultural sector is expected to drive the growth. With government expected to go for another round of green revolution the demand for the same is expected to increase.

• The Company has decided a buyback of shares of the Company. In the first phase, the Company proposes to buy back 40, 50,000 shares at Rs.120 per share through a tender offer route in this financial year.

• The Company has completed the transfer of its chemical business at Nagda, Madhya Pradesh and wind mill businesses at Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra to Lanxess India Pvt. Ltd. on September 01, 2009. The Company will invest the sale proceeds in power generation business and manufacturing of high value specialty chemicals at Ankleshwar. The cash derived from sale,

after initial distribution to Shareholders, when put to use in power generation and in building the Ankleshwar facility into specialty chemical hub will yield superior return to the Shareholders. This sale shall enable the Company to distribute some cash back to the Shareholders as well as invest in the growth of the businesses.

• The company gave a dividend of 12 % (Rs.1.20 per share) for the financial year ended 31st March 2009 same as in the FY08, inspite of the challenging market conditions. The total amount of dividend for the year ended 31st March, 2009 is Rs.296.12 Lacs.

• Expansion Plans and the year under review: In the year under review (FY10) the Company has earmarked upon expansion of capacities and infrastructure facilities thereof outlined herewith along with the expected dates of completion. Sr. Name of product Existing Expected Completion

No. Capacity Capacity

1. Chlorotoluene & its Derivatives: from 84100 TPA to 137000 TPA completion on September, 2009

2. Sulphur Oxy Chloride & its Derivatives: from 41000 TPA to 41000 TPA--> Completed

3. Pigments; from 2400 TPA to 3000 TPA--> Completed

4. Others: From 115700 TPA to 170400 TPA--->Completed

5. Co-generation power plant - NIL 4 MW Power & 45 TPH Steam Jan, 2010

• The Company has achieved an international award instituted by Indian Merchant Chamber,

Mumbai. The award is given to the company in manufacturing category for adopting world class

practices in quality management systems and for creating excellence in business performance and supply chain.

• The Company has also incorporated a wholly owned foreign Subsidiary Company in the name of Gwalior Chemicals LLC in May, 2008 under the law of the United State of America, with the

objective of carrying on business of selling products manufactured by it in the American Markets.

• The Company has also incorporated a wholly owned Indian NBFC Subsidiary in the name of GCIL Finance Limited with the initial paid up capital of 250 lacs.

• The company has adopted TPM (Total Productive Maintenance), designed by JIPM (Japan

Institute of Plant Maintenance), to improve the efficiency and performance of the plants by

eliminating Break down Losses and Defects.

• The Company has handled adverse effects of largest recession of century quite well. Its well

designed product basket with recognized quality coupled with strong domestic industrial base has enabled it to deal situation squarely. The products of the Company are focused primarily on the agrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, dyes and flavors & fragrance industry and as a result, its

operations are significantly influenced by the trends of the aforesaid industries. The Company

sees a robust growth in the industries in supplies too. On the other hand availability, cost and
quality of inputs like chlorine, steam and electricity have a significant impact on the working of
the Company.

• As regards the financial performance, the company posted good results for FY08 and FY09 as a whole. On a standalone basis, the total sales of the company for FY09, came out to be Rs.381.4 Cr as against Rs.295.7 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company for FY09, came out to be Rs.27.7 Cr as against Rs.24.32 Cr in the same period previous year. This gave an EPS of Rs.11.23 in FY09, as against Rs.9.85 in the same period previous year. For Q2FY10, the total sales of the company came out to be Rs.57.53 Cr as against Rs.74.77 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company for Q2FY10, came out to be Rs.76.5 Cr as against Rs.7.03 Cr in the same period previous year. The EPS of the company for Q2FY10, came out to be Rs.30.99 as against Rs.2.85 in the same period previous year.

Conclusion and Chart Check: Though the operating profit margins are in pressure but the Company is expected to maintain its margins in future as it will be able to pass on the cost to the clients. With good amount of rise in demand and increased capacity the valuations are expected to improve and hence, the investors can slowly accumulate the scrip near the support of Rs.86, for a target of Rs.105 115, in the next 2 months time frame. The stock may not rise immediately though Bollinger bands, MACD and Stochastic are more or less in the buy mode. It is not a momentum counter and hence its rise will be slow but steady. The stock is best suited for highly volatile markets

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

UPDATE...............October 07, 2009,MY PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATION,in Penny stock.

2010-01-19T15:55:00.000+05:30

West Bengal govt extends guarantee for Cals Refineries loan. Cals refineries is one of the few penny stocks in stock market which is being discussed a lot for it's future prospects.
Cals Refineries announced that West Bengal Industrial Development Corporation has informed the company that West Bengal Government has extended the guarantee for release of first installment of loan under the incentive scheme approved by the West Bengal Government.
The company is promoted by a group of individuals having well established businesses in India with a strong global presence in Oil & Gas, hospitality and infrastructure.
With the energy sector playing a pivotal role in global economies, the company aims to actively participate in its growth in India as well as in international mark.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Kirloskar Electric - Mid Cap Stock Analysis

2010-01-18T12:29:00.001+05:30

Kirloskar Electric Company Limited (KEC) is one of India 's leading manufacturers of electrical and power equipment.
Apart from manufacturing power and distribution transformer a wide range up to 50 MVA in 200 kV class, Kirloskar Electric also produces several types of special transformers like furnace, flame proof as well as conventional dry type, earthing, special converter, high voltage testing, short circuit testing, nitrogen gas cushioned, cast resin etc.
It is also one of the leading manufacturers of AC/DC motors, AC generators, DG sets, tractions etc. At the same time, its Switchgear division manufactures high voltage switchgear in the range of 3.3 to 36kV for indoor as well as outdoor applications. Recently, it has setup up a new plant at Maharashtra & Haryana for transformer & rotating machine respectively. In order to consolidate and integrate its operation, company has recently merged Kaytee Switchgear Ltd (KSL) & Kirsloskar Power Equipments Ltd (KPEL) with itself.
Due to drastic fall in metal prices and synergies of merger, KECL has the potential to improve its margin going forward and can report an EPS of more than Rs 8 in FY10. This stock looks good from a longer term perspectives. It has moved a lot in past few days. I would recommend to buy stocks around 65 levels where it seems it has strong support.
CMP@ 97
Market Cap 495.87

* EPS (TTM) 7.52

* P/E 13.05

* P/C 9.68

* Book Value 28.15

* Price/Book 3.49

Div(%) 0.00

Div Yield(%) -

Market Lot 1.00

Face Value 10.00

Industry P/E 27.73

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Andhra Cement - Safe Value Stock

2010-01-17T13:27:00.000+05:30

I like Andhra Cement because of the capacity expansion, which is going in the company. This is a GP Goenka group company, which has got two cement plants with a total capacity of 1.4 million tonne per annum. In FY09, this company achieved a sales of close to Rs 370 crore, profit after tax (PAT) was about Rs 60 crore, which results in an EPS of about 4.5. At the current price of about Rs 28, stock is traded at a price to earning multiple of about 7
Now this company is undertaking a capacity expansion, which will take its capacity from 1.4 to 3.5 million tonne per annum. The increased capacity is going onstream in the next couple of days – maybe next week as what GP Goenka mentioned in a recent interview with CNBC-TV18.
So you have a company which is available at a price to earning multiple of about 7 on the old capacity and with the new capacity going onstream next week, which is going to potentially add the turnover by 2.5 times since the capacity is going up from 1.4 to 3.5 million tonne per annum, I think at the current market cap of about Rs 350 crore and the current P/E of 7, the stock is undervalued.
Another thing is that promoters have been increasing their stake in the company through market purchases and there has been a lot of inter state transfer between the promoters also. So promoters also realize the potential of the company and heartening fact is that the promoter’s stake in the company is close to 75%. So over the next few years, there is potential for dilution.
I see Andhra Cement is one of those candidates where potentially since there is a lot of interest in the cement companies from foreign players, there could be some kind of a strategic investor coming into the company or maybe some majority stake being given to some potential investor. Andhra Cement maybe a fit case where those possibilities exist.
Fundamentally, also at a price to earnings multiple of 7 on 1.4 million tonne capacity, of course, earnings are going to grow up when the expanded capacity goes on-stream. So at Rs 28 again, this is a market where midcaps and smallcaps have run away quite a bit.

To look for a safe stock in this kind of a market is slightly difficult. Andhra Cement at Rs 28 looks to be a stock where the downside looks restricted even if the market falls. And since the earnings are going to rise in the coming years, there is scope for significant appreciation from these levels.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Donear Industries Ltd

2010-01-15T15:50:00.000+05:30

Scripscan:

Code: 512519

cmp:30
Story:Donear Industries is into textile and they have a very strong brand Donear Suitings for which Yuvraj Singh is the brand ambassador. The company has set up a new textile plant in Surat with an investment outlay of about Rs 220 crore for which they have gone for a borrowing of about Rs 120 crore. Prior to that it was a debt-free company and it has been doing quite. It had given bonuses in last five-years with a very high promoter stake of 90%, which the stock exchanges has asked them to reduce to 75%.But since the Surat project of Rs 220 crore, which had gone onstream just six-months back, the company have been providing depreciation on the written down value method while all the listed companies are providing depreciation on the straight-line method. This is was because of the policy having adopted for written down value method. The depreciation burden has been quite high and that has resulted into the net loss.If the company would have opted to provide depreciation on the straight-line method, there would have been net profit. If you see their H1 performance, they had a topline of close to Rs 115 crore in which Surat project has not contributed much – with a net loss of about Rs 5.80 crore and in this Rs 5.80 crore the depreciation element was at about Rs 17.5 crore. So if I take the cash profit element, the company had posted a cash profit of about Rs 11 crore for six-months on a equity of close to about Rs 10.40 crore.The share has a face value of Rs 2 and now this Surat project will start contributing to the topline as well as to the bottomline. Maybe, I don’t know what would the logic will be, it may prevail upon the management to opt for the change in the depreciation policy and if they opt to do that – there would be a reversal of depreciation, which can result in a huge write back of the depreciation which can improve the bottomline.But even if you take on a fundamental basis with a market cap of the company at about Rs 165 crore, as I said the debt is only to the extent of Rs120 crore – this company with an enterprise value of Rs 300 crore is ruling at a very low valuation. Their brand itself has been estimated in the past at about close to Rs 130-140 crore.There is good upside. We have been seeing renewed interest coming in the textile stocks. I think if someone can take a call on this stock with six months view, one can expect at least 60% return from hereon.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

2 STOCKS TO BUY NOW:-A VERY SHORT TERM DELIVERY STOCK

2010-01-14T19:53:00.001+05:30

RISHABHDEV TECHNO-(533083)- CMP-16.5/- ITS A VERY SHORT TERM DELIVERY STOCK FOR U..... T-20/- (PAID MEMBERS WERE REC. YESTERDAY TO BUY AROUND 15.95/-)

EXIDE IND- CMP 119/- GOOD RESULTS,GOOD ON CHART...... BUY FOR TARGET OF 130/-(MAX-5/6 DAYS HOLD)

Operator call and not mine.Am out of short term stuff.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Prakash Industries - Stock Investment Research Report

2010-01-13T16:41:00.002+05:30

Stock report on Prakash Industries from My stock brokers ,stock market investment research team. They have recommended to buy stocks of Prakash industries@CMP=206 for ~30% returns on the back of hike in production and capacity expansion.
The company will spend Rs 33 billion over five years to nearly double its crude steel production, expand its sponge iron capacity to capitalize on iron ore integration and put up a 625MW power plant.
The company's steel making capacity will increase from 550,000tpa to 1mtpa by March 2012 and its sponge iron capacity will increase from 400,000tpa to 1mtpa. Prakash Industries is extracting nearly 1mtpa of coal from the Chotia mine to feed its 100MW CPP and sponge iron kilns.
Market Cap 2,456.13

* EPS (TTM) 18.65

* P/E 11.40

* P/C 9.53

* Book Value 73.65

* Price/Book 2.89

Div(%) 0.00

Div Yield(%) -

Market Lot 1.00

Face Value 10.00

Industry P/E 22.41

Over FY09-12, expected EBITDA is to grow at 39% CAGR to Rs 7.9 bn due to raw material integration. Expected PAT growth is of 40% CAGR to Rs 5.6 billion. Target price comes to be Rs.285 (30% upside) based on 5.5x FY12E EV/EBITDA.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

LEARNING SECTION-----The cognitive process of acquiring skill.

2010-01-12T14:31:00.003+05:30

How to take profits in bull and bear markets

1. Check market indicators for overall direction

2. Scan the industry groups to know which one to zero in.

3. Cut out the stocks with the most potentially profitable formation within the favourable groups

4. Concentrate majority of buying in continuation-type buy patterns that are already in Stage 2, and reverse for bear markets

5. Know where protective stop will be (ALWAYS use it) set before entering the order – if it’s too far away, look for other stock or wait to purchase when safer level forms

6. Never sell a stock in Stages 1 or (especially) 2, AND never buy a stock in Stages 3 or (especially) 4 – stage analysis can be applied to any investments that are governed by supply and demand

7. Never guess a bottom (and go long)

8. Don’t feel that one has to be 100% invested all the times. Differentiate when charts and indicators point to fully invested and when to extreme caution

9. Always be in harmony with the market – buy Stage 2 strength; sell Stage 4 weakness

10. In case of conflict between price volume action and the earnings, always go with objective message being supplied by technical approach

11. Always be consistent. Keep a diary and analyze actions

READING CHARTS Daily for very short traders, weekly for intermediate (several months) traders. Below specifically on weekly charts:

1. Look at each high-low-close spike – forming pattern with insight into next major move

2. Look at volume plot – very important that volume is large and expanding on breakout

3. Look at 30 week MA – never long if P below declining 30-week MA; never short if P above rising 30 week MA

4. Be aware of its long-range background (yearly high-low, long-term support/resistance)

5. Look at its relative-strength line – long on up trend, short on downtrend; watch those situations where it shifts direction

Stage 1: basing area. After several months decline, start sideways trend. Volume lessens (often starts expanding towards end stage 1). 30 week MA begins to flatten out.

Stage 2: advancing phase. Ideal time to go long when stock swinging out of its base into this more dynamic stage. Breakout above resistance zone and 30-week MA should occur on impressive volume. Usually after initial rally at least one pullback (the less the pullback the stronger the stock).

30 week MA usually starts moving up shortly after breakout. Expect price to move two steps forward and one sharp step back – ok as long as above 30 week MA.

When angle of ascent of MA slows down considerably and prices closer and closer to MA, stock becomes a hold.

Stage 3: top area. Upward advance loses momentum and stock starts trending sideways. Volume usually heavy and moves sharp and choppy.Prices tiptoes below and above MA on declines and rallies. Keep emotions in check.

Stage 4: declining phase. Stock breaks below bottom of support zone.

WHEN TO BUY

Stock initially moves out of Stage 1 base and enters Stage 2. Risk extremely low (support just beneath purchase price) and excellent upside potential (entire Stage 2 advance lies ahead), but need patience (it can take time for solid Stage 2 momentum to build).

After Stage 2 is well underway, when stock drops back close to its MA and consolidates. MA should still be clearly trending higher. Then it breaks out anew on top of resistance zone – this is continuation buy.

Early in bull market plenty of stocks breaking out for the first time, later very few but still plenty of continuation variety buys

Rule of thumb: 80% continuation buys, 20% early stage 2 variety

Use buy stops, within set limits, good-til-cancelled (GTC):

A. Don’t have to watch market closely – frees attention

B. Better, less emotional decision (not involved in market energy)

The more mechanical the system and the less subject to judgements and emotions, the more profitable.

Buying/Selling patterns

4 Year presidential cycle: first year bear, second year bear until midway then bullish, third year most bullish, fourth year choppy – usually first half weak, then strong

Months - bullish: Nov-Jan, April. Bearish: Feb, May, June, September

Day of week: Monday worse, Friday strongest.

Day preceding holidays usually bullish.

Selecting the sector

Use same criteria than stocks, most important criteria that group be healthy (not in Stage 3 or 4), breaking into Stage 2 with a minimum of resistance overhead. One difference: if group well in Stage 2 far above support and one stock just breaking out of Stage 1 basis it’s ok to buy; same if group just moved in Stage 2 but one stock as continuation pattern, ok to buy.

For trader, ideal is a continuation breakout within a dynamic group exhibiting the very same sort of pattern.

If several sectors are well, best will be one with best individual top chart patterns.

REFINING BUYING PROCESS

ResistanceAlways check where and how much overhead resistance there is on any stock, first on 2-4 years, then on 10 years chart

VolumeNever trust a breakout that isn’t accompanied by a significant increase in volume. Either:

a. a one-week volume spike that is at least twice the average volume of the past few weeks, or

b. a volume build-up over the past 3-4 weeks that is at least twice the average volume of the past several weeks, coupled with at least some increase in the breakout we

Relative strengthMeasure of how strong a stock is in relation to the overall market. Never buy a stock if its relative strength is in poor shape.

Buying checklistCheck overall direction of market

Scan the industry groups that look best technically

List stocks in favourable groups that have bullish patterns but are in trading range. Write down price they need to break out.

Narrow down the list discarding ones with overhead resistance nearby.

Narrow list further by checking relative strength

Set what stop loss level should be – discard unacceptable ones

Put in buy-stop orders for half of position on stocks that meet buying criteria

If volume is favourable on breakout and contracts on decline, but other half position on a pullback near the initial breakout

If volume pattern is not high enough on breakout, sell stock on first rally. If it fails to rally and falls back below the breakout point, immediately dump it.

Further tips on buyingSome chart patterns one needs to be familiar. Do not anticipate their completion.

1. head-and-shoulder (easier on daily than weekly charts) – most powerful and reliable of all bottom formations. Important indicators: 30 week MA not declining and crossed by prices at breakout; there must be a significant increase in volume on the breakout. Head-and-shoulder can also be indicator for a group or overall market, if several similar patterns in same time span.

2. double bottom – very profitable formation when it occurs in conjunction with impressive volume, favourable relative strength and minimal overhead resistance (frequent, so look for confirmation signals).

The bigger the base, the bigger the move.

Diversify stocks and groups.

WHEN TO SELL

Don’t average down in a negative situation

Don’t refuse to sell because the overall market trend is bullish

Don’t wait for the next rally to sell

Always have protective stop-loss. When set initial stop, pay less attention to 30 week MA and more to prior correction low. Place it below round number.

After buy on breakout, place stop-loss below lower end of base.

When trending, give it plenty of room and raise it after each substantial correction have stopped.

At stage 3, become more aggressive with stoploss. Do not wait for 30 week MA to be violated before selling.

Using trendlinesWay of locking in even more of the profits. Sell at least part position when trendline (connecting at least 3 points) violated.

Either whole position stoploss just under trendline, or half there and half under last correction low.

Swing ruleDoes not appear often, but very accurate. When there is an important decline, subtract new low price from previous peak, then double it: this gives potential near term price area for upswing.

LosingTaking a loss on some positions is just a cost of doing business.

SELLING SHORTStocks fall much faster than they rise, because fear causes a panic reaction while greed takes a while to simmer.

Don’t short a stock that is too thin – or covering position will raise the price.

Don’t short a stock in Stage 2 (above 30 week MA)

Don’t short a stock that is part of a strong group.

Always set a buy stop.

Sequence

1. Market. Check that market is bearish

2. Group. Isolate market sectors that are potentially vulnerable. In group chart: below its 30 week MA, relative-strength is trending lower, possible negative chart pattern, several chart from that sector are technically weak

3. Individual chart pattern. Stock should have had significant runup before top was formed. Far from significant support areas.

4. Relative strength. Indicator must be trending lower.

5. Volume. Not a major priority on the short side.

Ideal to short at breakout, but ok to short well into Stage 4. However, make sure a consolidation pattern forms beneath the declining MA and then a new breakdown occurs.

MARKET LONG TERM INDICATORS

Stage analysis

30-week MA

Advance-Decline lineAs long as AD line and index are moving in gear it’s ok. When AD line starts losing upside momentum and the index charges higher, that’s a negative divergence signalling market trouble ahead – also negative divergence if the index is rallying to new high and the AD line refuses to confirm. If the divergence takes place over a short period of time (several weeks) the decline is likely to turn out to be a correction within an ongoing bull market. If the divergence continues to take shape over a long period of time (several months), then the market advance is becoming dangerously selective, with money out of the broad market and into blue chips. Sign of a problem.

When a major bottom is forming, the index will reach the ultimate low and then refuse to drop further, while the AD line continues to move lower and lower, this is a positive divergence.

Whether top or bottom, the longer a divergence lasts, the more significant the eventual reversal will be.

Graph the NYSE AD line on the same page as the DJ Industrial. Can also use point and figure on a daily basis.

Momentum index 200 day moving average of AD line. Its most important signal is the cross of the zero line (the longer it was above or below, the more significant the cross).

It’s more helpful at spotting tops than bottoms. At the bottom, it acts more as a confirming signal. In a bull market, it peaks before the DJ.

New hi – new lo On a weekly basis. It offers very early warning.

When consistently positive or negative, it’s a long term indication. When an important divergence takes shape, a reversal in the trend is starting to form.

REDUCING RISK

To increase probability of success when trading options

1. Buy a call option only on a stock that is in Stage 2 or is moving into Stage 2. Buy a put option only on a stock that is in Stage 4 or is first entering that phase

2. Buy only an option that has big potential – you are going to be wrong more often with options than with stocks. Selectivity is absolutely crucial!

3. Give a reasonable amount of time before expiration – 40/50 days to 3 months

4. Buy an option that is close to the striking price and, if possible, in the money. Or if it’s out of the money, make sure it’s very close to the striking price.

5. Use a very tight protective stop (mental) on option positions – any sign of weakness is a reason to say goodbye to a position

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com

contact;09013177977,AMIT

SEL manufacturing

2010-01-12T11:21:00.002+05:30

Buy SEL manufacturing company. Current market price:96.25 , Long term target: 168.50. Book value: 166.63. P/E ratio: 2.47

SEL manufacturing company are the manufacturers, exporters of all types of knitted garments. They have in house spinning, knitting, dyeing, Finishing and Garmenting to meet the demand of price conscious and quality conscious market. They do all types of knitted products. Their basic Products include T-shirts, Polo shirt, Sweat shirt, Boxer shorts, Girls top etc. They make 30-35 thousand garments daily.

R S Saluja Group was established in the year 1969 for manufacturing ready-made garments for Domestic Market. Over the year’s company grown to a Pioneer position in exports, supplying yarns, fabrics and garments to major markets in Russia and Middle East. At present Company have FOUR state of the art garmenting units, one knitting unit and complete state of the art processing house and 50000 spindles cotton yarn spinning.

Strong competencies in product development, manufacturing and marketing, are complimented by their most significant advantage in textiles that they make their own yarns and fabrics to meet quality and shipment time of Garments. Their group-wide initiatives to achieve manufacturing and supply chain excellence, close collaboration with their suppliers, and sales offices at the customer’s doorstep all guarantee fast and flexible solutions.

With decades of expertise and excellence of meeting the discerning needs of niche client’s world wide, SEL Manufacturing Company Ltd. has laid out ambitious plans of product capacity augmentation to continue its proud contributions in the world of premium quality cotton - yarn, fabrics and garments.

Some of their prominent markets are:

Taiwan

Peru

Tunisia

Morocco

Brazil

Turkey

Bangladesh

Russia

China

Singapore

Malasiya

Sri Lanka

Colombia

Spain

Egypt

Switzerland

Germany

Syria

Greece

Gautemala

Hongkong

U.K.

Indonesia

Portugal

Italy

USA

Phillipines

Israel

Korea

Vietnam

Lebanon

Mauritius

Dubai

Argentina

World Class Knitted Fabrics

SEL Manufacturing Company Ltd is investing in high-end fabric manufacture in knitted fabrics. The Company has 75 knitting machines including Terrot Autostriper knitting machines capable of knitting jersey and auto-stripe patterns.

The Company is augmenting its Knitting capacity to 350 tones a month by procuring latest machines to meet the future requirements of garment capacity in-house

To meet the challenges of ever growing demand for quality processed fabrics they are setting up a additional 6 tones / day dyeing capacity with mercerizing, open width with Stenter, capable to produce best quality knitted fabric for our growing in house consumption.

Garmenting:

State of the art Garment manufacturing facilities at 4 strategic locations makes SEL Manufacturing Company Ltd backed up by own spinning and knitting makes us Customer’s choice who looks for Large supplies and short lead time. At present they are producing 600,000 pcs per month.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

LEARNING SECTION-----The cognitive process of acquiring skill.

2010-01-11T12:40:00.001+05:30

The risk profile of an investor is difficult to gauge because it oscillates with market moods. When the market is on the rise, even the most risk-averse start buying stocks. A sharp correction leads to panic selling, even by risk-takers.
No wonder, the first thing a financial planner wants to know is his client’s risk profile. It helps him direct investments. A person’s risk profile is a combination of his attitude towards asset classes and his investment tenure and objectives.
Many wealth management companies use psychometric testing. “These tests could be a starting point. But risk profile cannot be mapped without considering the investible amount and the tenure of investments,” said Sumeet Vaid, a certified financial planner.
An investor is given a set of questions with four options. Each answer has points and the sum total defines the risk profile. The person is then defined as conservative, moderate or aggressive. Some use five categories – very conservative, conservative, moderate, aggressive and very aggressive.
While there are a large number of wealth management companies and websites that can help you gauge your risk profile, here’s some help if you wish to do it on your own.
STEP 1

Investment horizon: Whether it is equity, debt, gold or property, you need to take a call on the tenure and accordingly choose the asset class.
STEP 2

What is your investment goal? The goal has to be matched with the investment horizon. For instance, if you wish to purchase a car in the next three years, investing in equities is the best option. However, if you want to buy a flat in six months, you may have to compromise on returns to ensure there is no erosion of capital. In such circumstances, a fixed deposit is ideal.
Let’s assume you are saving for retirement. The first obvious question is to ask how much money do you need to maintain a decent lifestyle. And remember, 15-20 years later, when you retire, inflation would have reduced the value of your savings significantly.
Say you want to retire 20 years later with Rs 1 crore. If you invest in equities, you can achieve the target by saving Rs 10,000 every month for the next 20 years, assuming an annual rate of return of 12 per cent.
But if you opt for a fixed deposit at 8 per cent, the monthly saving has to increase to Rs 16,900. Also, equity returns will be tax-free whereas returns from debt funds will be added to your income and taxed accordingly.
If the investment horizon is between three years and five years, investing in equity for the first three years and then shifting to debt slowly can help get decent returns. That is, a young person wishing to get married and buy a property and a car needs to be aggressive in the first few years.
For investment goals of less than three years, debt is ideal. One could take the route of fixed deposits or short- and medium-term debt funds. However, if you want to make money aggressively, investing in good balanced funds can shore up returns. This is because they invest a part of their money in equities, which increases returns. Such investment goals are typically related to purchasing a car or planning a holiday.
For ones who are unsure about investing in equities, it’s best to start with exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that have Nifty or Sensex as the underlying index. “This will ensure that investments are in large-cap companies. ETFs are the least volatile among pure equity products. They also give returns on at par with stock market indices.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Bajaj Holdings - Stock To Buy With Intrinsic Value

2010-01-09T15:23:00.001+05:30

Here is another stock to buy in 2010. Bajaj holdings is basically the investment and treasury division of the two-wheeler major Bajaj Auto.
@625/- PER SHARE
A bulk of Bajaj Holding's equity investment is represented by its holding in Bajaj Auto, Bajaj Finserv and ICICI Bank. However, there have been some fundamental changes in the company’s functioning, after its demerger. Unlike in the past, the company now actively manages its investment portfolio which means regular buying and selling of securities to take advantage of market fluctuations. In that sense, buying stocks is akin to investment in a close-ended fund. While equity investments constitute two-thirds of the total investment book, debt, mutual funds form the remaining part.
The company has posted impressive numbers in the first half of the current fiscal. Its profit grew by 254% year-on-year in the six months ended September 2009. Such high growth in profit was due to current rally, as the company’s fortunes are directly linked with the asset markets. The company earned Rs 435-crore profit from sale of investments in the first half of the current fiscal compared with a mere Rs 3 crore in the corresponding period last year. Huge trading gains also show the company’s efficient portfolio management.
Institutional investors like LIC, ICIC Prudential Life Insurance and Birla Sun Life Insurance have stakes in the company. In fact, institutional investors have increased their stake in the company in the past one year. For instance, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance had a 2.7% stake in September 2008, which it has increased to 4.7% in September 2009. Similarly, Birla Sun Life Insurance didn’t have a stake last year, while it owned 1.2% of the company at the end of September 2009. This shows that institutional investors are showing more confidence in the company now.
The per share value of investments made by the company turns out to be Rs 1,422. However, the stock is trading at just Rs 625 per share. This shows that the stock is trading at significant discount to the value of investments. Its shares are trading at a price-to-earning multiple (P/E) of around 10, while Tata Investment Corp, which is in similar business, is trading at 15 P/E. The stock is not only trading at a discount to its value of investments, but also with regards to its peers, and hence, there is scope for further price appreciation.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

The Bulls Vs. The Bears!

2010-01-09T15:16:00.000+05:30

Have a look at the stock market movements in past few days/weeks and you would notice Indian stock markets are going nowhere. It's a tough war going on,
The Bulls have been ruling for past almost 9 - 10 months on markets but we should not underestimate The Bears since they are as much powerful as The Bulls. They have power to fight back and win too.
It is quite possible that Bears are building their positions and taking guards and might start attacking soon. Once their positions start unwinding, The Bulls won't have any space to hide.
Let's see what could be the climax of this, very soon...
The signal could be one big red closing for the day and it could be start of the Bear phase.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Scripscan:Shanthi Gears Ltd

2010-01-07T12:38:00.003+05:30

Code:522034

cmp:44
Story:Shanthi Gears is having a challenging FY10 as there is a dip in the top-line revenues. Despite this challenge, Shanthi Gears has been able to post a EPS of 1.12 Rs for the first six months.We expect H2 for Shanthi Gears to be relatively better which will help add another 1.2 Rs to its EPS.Even after this sharp top line correction at 2.3 Rs EPS, which is conservative in our view, Shanthi Gears will trade only at 19 X PE FY10 multiple and 9 X PE Multiple for FY11.Our 12 month price target for Shanthi Gears is Rs 100 which will rise sharply as soon as its top line improves.Order book is to the tune of 900-1100 Mn or about 6 month of forward sales.ROCE (at PAT level) in the past has been solid at 15%, while even in the tough times it is expected to be above 6-7%.Balance sheet of Shanthi Gears is very healthy with good amount of cash balance and very little debt sitting on the balance sheet.Finally management has reduced the employee count and the payroll costs have gone down in FY10.we expect Shanthi Gears to give a positive surprise in the coming few months and we expect a sharp rise in its share price as soon as demandvisibility improves.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Stock Idea: Kohinoor Food

2010-01-06T11:01:00.004+05:30

CMP@60/-
This maker of basmati rice is sure to end current fiscal in the black. If we all are complaining about the rising costs of food, companies which get the food onto the super markets and shops are the ones who stand to gain the most. And that is what we see reflected in the financial performance of Kohinoor.

Reduction of expenses and making no provision for deferred tax has helped the company show a much better profit margin. For the time in Q2FY10, it was crossed the 2% mark and was at 3.49%.

Monsoon was bad in the first half and that has surely affected the kharif crop. A shortage of around 10-12% is estimated for non-basmati rice but basmati crop has been very good and this is expected to be over 50% higher than last year. The company exports 80% of its basmati rice and there the realisations have been higher. To curb prices of non-basmati, the Govt is importing rice and this will prevent any spike in the prices. So for Kohinoor, the earner will be exports of basmati rice. If the Govt bans exports to curb prices, then the going will get tough for the company, which is what affected the performance last fiscal.

Undoubtedly, the company would end FY10 on a much higher note. And that is what we are seeing in the stock price, which has been soaring high for some time now.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Stock Idea: PTC India Ltd.

2010-01-04T20:08:00.000+05:30

PTC India Ltd— BUY@ 116-118

Sector — Power (Distribution)

Regd.Off.— 15 Bhikaji Cama Place, New Delhi - 110066

Listed — NSE, BSE.

Company overview—

PTC India Ltd. (PTC), the leading provider of power trading solutions in India, is Government of India initiated Public-Private Partnership, whose primary focus is to develop a commercially vibrant power market in the country. Since its inception in 1999, PTC has sought to provide holistic services that address the sustainability of a power market model, including intermediation for long-term supply of power from identified domestic and cross-border power projects, providing equity support to selected power projects, advisory services and foray into providing fuel linkages to power plants of various utilities / generators participating in the power market. India is the third largest producer of electricity in Asia with an installed capacity that has increased from 1362 MW in 1947 to about 126545 MW. In spite of the overall shortage, the inherent diversity in demand of various States and Regions in the country results in periods of seasonal surplus in one State or Region coinciding with periods of deficit in another. Company is the pioneer in developing and implementing the concept of power trading in India and has successfully demonstrated its efficacy in optimally utilizing the existing infrastructure within the country to the benefit of all. Company is not just the leading power trader in the country, but has also diversified into the unique role of being a total solutions provider in the power supply business.

Products & Services—

PTC has a two-fold mandate; to develop a full fledged, efficient and competitive market mechanism for trading in power and to facilitate the development of generation projects including through private investment, both resulting in reliable, economic and quality power in the long term. PTC is involved into Development of power market for optimal utilization of energy, Promote power trading to optimally utilize the existing resources, Catalyze development of Power Projects particularly environment friendly hydro projects and Promote exchange of power with neighboring countries.

Company is working as an entity for credit risk mitigation for Mega and other large Power Projects by acting as an intermediary to enter into Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with Independent Power Producers (IPPs) on the one side and Multipartite PPAs with users / State Electricity Boards (SEBs) under long term arrangement on the other, thus insulating the IPPs from protracted negotiations with multiple SEBs and from receivables risks. PTC has also been mandated for power trading to optimally utilize the existing resources in the country as also promoting exchange of power with neighboring countries. It’s service offerings include Long term power sale solutions spanning 10-35 years with power being sold from a generating plant to one or more state utilities / distribution companies, Short term power sale solutions spanning anywhere between a few hours to one year, where surplus power is sourced from generating plants / state utilities for sale to various state utilities across the country, Power sourcing / supply solutions for Captive Power Producers / Bulk consumers for purchase / sale of power to meet their needs both in the long as well as the short term, Advisory services to IPPs / states / regulators etc. regarding power market mechanisms, tariff options etc. It has already signed various agreements / MoUs for purchase of power from various power projects and is in the process of signing agreements / MoUs for sale of power from these projects to various state utilities.

Recent developments—

Company has raised Rs 4,999.92 million by issuing over 66.66 million equity shares at a price of Rs 75 per Equity Share (including a premium of Rs 65 per Equity Share) through qualified institutional placement (QIP) in May 2009.

PTC Financial Services, a subsidiary of Power Trading Corporation (PTC), is considering hitting the capital market next fiscal to rise about Rs 15 billion by divesting 26% of the promoters’ stake. The present equity capital of PTC Financial Services is Rs 6 billion, 77% of which is held by PTC India and 11.5% each by Goldman Sachs and Australian company Macquarie. PTC Financial Services is a diversified entity, was formed in 2008-09 for providing equity support to power projects in the country. PTC Financial Services is also looking at acquiring coal blocks abroad and has short listed mines in Australia and Indonesia, where the fuel is available in abundance.

Valuation—

At current market price, stock is trading at 14.56 P/E multiple of its FY2010 Estimated EPS. We recommend investors to buy “PTC India ltd” with medium to long-term investment horizon.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

7 ways to shortlist the right stocks.

2010-01-03T18:13:00.000+05:30

Equity as an asset class outperforms all other asset classes in the long run. True. But, how do you pick the right company?

It’s always important to spend time in knowing a company, its business, financial health and prospects. But do you have the time, resources and energy to study about 2,000 companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and about 7,200 on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) before selecting the one to invest?

If these numbers make you uncomfortable, sample these: the market capitalisation of these companies ranges from a few lakhs to over Rs 2 lakh crore and the prices of shares from less than a rupee to over Rs 12,000 per share.

So, how and where do you make a start? We give you seven basic screening criteria, which will help you shortlist companies that are worth researching in the first place.

1. Is the company’s market cap more than Rs 250 crore (Rs 2.50 billion)?

Setting a minimum market cap floor really helps — it eliminates very small companies, or penny stocks. Generally, small companies have a small revenue base and they do not spend too much on investor relations. This makes tracking them difficult. At Outlook Money, we do not look at companies that have a market cap of less than Rs 250 crore. About 500 companies at NSE pass this criteria.

2. Are the company’s trading volumes high?

The company should have a reasonable trading volume — at least a few thousand shares per day. If you buy into a stock that has low volume, it can become difficult to get out when the markets fall. Both rise and fall is sharp in stocks with low volume. Also, the impact cost is high.

For example, MMTC, a state-owned company, has a market cap of over Rs 62,000 crore (Rs 620 billion), but its trading volume is very thin. The 30-day average trading volume of this stock is just about 338 shares and the stock is trading at Rs 12,400 per share. It is always advisable to avoid these kinds of stocks.

3. Does the company make quality disclosures?

The company should have good quality disclosures. This is an easy test. All you have to do is visit the company website and see press releases and results for the last few quarters. In the results part, you need not get into numbers in detail as of now, but do see how the developments of last quarter have been explained.

For example, see if cost has increased, or margins have declined, and whether there is an explanation for it.

Large companies, especially in the information technology sector, are generally good at this. Tata Consultancy Services [Get Quote], India’s largest IT company by revenue, has a transcript of analyst conference call on its website, which possibly answers all the questions that investors have.

Availability of information makes tracking easy and decision-making becomes quicker while you are invested in the company.

4. Does the company have operating profits?

Sometimes, companies raise money from the equity markets in their initial stages and hope to cover the costs by generating profits from operations later. Actually, they are in a stage when they spend money for, say, setting up plants, or research and development facilities.

These businesses sound exciting, but can be risky. It is advisable to avoid such companies. New projects involve a lot of regulatory approvals and can get delayed, which can escalate cost. Also, stock prices of such companies are the first to fall during any broader market correction, as there are no earnings to support the prices.

This is exactly what happened with Reliance Power, which does not have any of its plants in operation. Its public issue got heavily oversubscribed (73 times) due to general euphoria in the market, but sentiments changed between issue and listing. The issue went on to become one of the biggest disasters in the markets.

Therefore, it is always safer to be in companies that generate profits from their operations.

5. Does the company generate constant cash flows?

At times, fast-growing companies may show profits without generating cash. These companies are in their expansion stage. They have to generate cash eventually and create value for the shareholders.

Companies with a negative cash flow may have to seek additional capital, either through debt or equity. Debt will increase the risk while equity will dilute the earnings, which will get reflected in the share prices also.

6. Is its return to equity (RTE) constantly above 10 per cent?

RTE is the profit a company generates with the shareholders’ money and is calculated by dividing net profits with shareholders’ equity. It indicates how well a company has deployed investors’ money.

The RTE is generally low in case of manufacturing companies and is higher for services companies as the cost of setting infrastructure is low in services companies. Use 10 per cent as the minimum limit for companies to qualify. There are just about 400 companies listed on NSE with a market cap above Rs 250 crore that generated return on equity above 10 per cent in the financial year 2007-08.

7. Is the earnings growth constant or cyclical?

Cyclical earnings implies that profits move up or down depending on the business cycle. Businesses generally move in cycles.

This is commonly seen in commodity companies, where a shortage or sudden rise in demand helps prices to move up, resulting in super normal profits for a while. Sugar is a classic example of cyclical earnings.

Bajaj Hindustan , the largest sugar company in India, saw its share prices soaring from Rs 200 in November 2005 to Rs 550 in April 2006 on the back of rising sugar prices; net sales for the company went up Rs 394 crore (Rs 3.94 billion) in the March 2006 quarter compared to Rs 282 crore (Rs 2.82 billion) in the September 2005 quarter.

But by the end of the December quarter, net sales went down to Rs 286.64 crore (Rs 2.86 billion) and the share price to Rs 140. The biggest risk in investing in cyclical or commodity stocks is that you could enter at the wrong time.

Once the cycle is reversed, it becomes difficult to get out. Commodity prices are interlinked globally, and any demand-supply mismatch in one corner of the world can disturb prices all over.

Companies in the pharma and FMCG space have stable growth in the long term as demand in these sectors depends on the business cycle and macroeconomic movements. The services sector also has stable earnings growth compared to commodity stocks.

If you carry out these seven checks, you will, by and large, be able to eliminate companies that are not worth investing. However, investors must note that these conditions are not fool-proof and there can always be exceptions.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Apollo Tyres - Small Cap Stock In Which Mutual Funds Are Interested

2010-01-02T19:56:00.002+05:30

Started in 1976, Apollo Tyres (ATL) currently 49.50, produces the entire gamut of automotive tyres for both passenger cars and commercial vehicles. Checkout this another small cap stock discussed in small cap stock list for 2010.
Raised performances enabled it, in barely three years, to venture abroad. It has 6 subsidiaries including the recent acquisition of Vredestein Banden B.V., a Dutch tyre maker.
Operating in eight locations, ATL has slowly established itself as a global player. Though it is in the process of diversifying its market, but its operations are very much dependent on one input, rubber. The price of which is as volatile as oil itself. Hence, at the peak of the commodity rally ATL profits were down over 80 per cent in Q2FY2009, while the opposite happened in this quarter (Q2FY2010), when its profits increased 7.86 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), and 1,210.78 per cent year-on-year (YoY).
With improving operating numbers, institutional interest in the stock has also increased from just 23.50 per cent in March, 2009 to 36.98 in September, 2009. The number of funds holding this stock in the portfolio has also seen an uptick from 29 funds (May, 2009) to 41 funds (October, 2009).
Market Cap 2,447.04

EPS (TTM) 4.93

* P/E 9.85

* P/C 7.07

* Book Value 26.84

* Price/Book 1.81

Div(%) 45.00

Div Yield(%) 0.93

Market Lot 1.00

Face Value 1.00

Industry P/E 13.92
Though the stock is currently trading below its one-year peak value, it is just 9.64 per cent below its historic level of 10.79 price-to-earning (P/E) ratio (3-year median). With an earnings per share (EPS) of Rs 5.70, the stock has rallied 142.07 per cent this year (till November 27), but there is upside room if the company is able to maintain its operating margins.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

2010-01-02T19:50:00.003+05:30

A Very Happy New Year !!!

Starting this year’s first post with my best wishes to all those who have been faithful readers of this blog and friends who have helped me evolve as a better trader! It’s been a pleasure writing this blog, it does get a lil boring sometimes but then the feed back I get makes it worthwhile! I have always looked forward for your valuable suggestions especially pointing out my flaws and help me grow.

Wishing you all a very HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Stock Idea: Balmer Lawrie & Company

2009-12-28T20:35:00.001+05:30

Balmer Lawrie & Company: Bargain Hunt begins
Balmer Lawrie & Company (BLC) is a diversified PSU having Mini Ratna status. Its business spans across

Industrial packaging – Manufacturing barrels and drums

Logistics Infrastructure – Container Freight stations and warehousing activities

Logistics Services – Air and related logistics activities

Travels and tours – Ticketing, tours and money changing activities

Greases and Lubricants

Tea blending and packaging

Leather Chemicals

Engineering and Technology services

Stock data (18 Dec 2009) BSE

Share Price (Rs.) 543

52 week high/low (Rs.) 600 / 204

Market Cap (Rs million) 8843

P/S (x) 0.54 P/E (x) 8.75

No. Of Shares (Million Nos.) 16.29

Average Daily Volume (6month) 13,471

The company is aiming to achieve Rs. 2000 crores revenues and Rs. 200 crores in PBT by the end of FY2010.

Amongst the segments, it can be seen that travel and tours contributes ~40% of the total revenues and Logistics Infra and services contribute ~24% of the total.

Considering profit margins, despite tours and travels contributing maximum to the revenues, bulk profits come from Logistics Infra and services (contributing 63% of PBT). This segment has the highest profitability (26% margins) and also the fastest growth whereas travel segment contribute only 14% of PBT and has very low margins of ~3.4%

Greases / lubes and Industrial Packaging segments are moderate growers with growth of ~7% and together contribute ~32% of the revenues.

Tea blending and engineering services are the least contributors to the revenues and profits. As tea blending division is a commodity product their returns are quite low and does not justify the capital allocation, especially for this segment. Even the revenues from this segment have declined by 15% in current financial year. The company may be planning to exit the tea business if these returns do not justify the investments

BLC has grown its sales by 13% CAGR since last 5 years and its net profits by 35% CAGR. The sales and net profits in FY09 were Rs.1636 crores and Rs.101 crores respectively. The company wants to push the sales to Rs.2000 crores by end of FY10 and is also making efforts to achieve PBT of 10% during that time frame.

Since last 5 years, Balmer Lawrie has been able to maintain ROE greater than 22% because of proper cost controls, effective working capital management and better utilization of resources. The company is also an effective cash generator and this can be seen from the fact the cash from operations is equivalent to net profits with minimal capex.

The company also has strong balance sheet with zero debt and has net worth of ~Rs. 390 crores in FY09. It also has substantial cash balance of ~Rs. 248 crores which it can use for expansions or it can payback its shareholders by increasing the dividend. BLC post an attractive dividend yield of ~3.5% and with impressive record increasing dividends.

BLC is setting up a lube and grease manufacturing plant in Indonesia through a 50:50 joint venture with a local company by investing ~US$5m (~Rs. 24 crores)

Key concerns:

BLC is diversified to various businesses and it seems that it requires focusing on its key growth drivers i.e. focusing especially on logistics infra / services, tours and travels, and industrial packaging.

The company also needs to reorganize its business units for better allocation of capital. For example: The returns generated by the tea business do not generate adequate returns on capital.

Valuation:

BLC seems fairly valued with P/E of ~9x, P/S of ~0.6x and P/B of 2.4 (the margin of safety is not there), but when the company is evaluated on segmental basis the stock is valued cheaply especially when the travel business is contributing ~40% (Rs.662 crores) of the revenues. The current IPO of Cox and Kings whose revenues were just ~Rs.155 crores is valued 17 times its sales and similar is the case of Thomas Cook also (5 times its sales). If those companies are getting valuations at this level then Balmer Lawrie should also fetch some decent valuations in the travel business. The price / sales ratio of the whole BLC is ~0.6 indicating that it is largely undervalued.

Other segments like Logistics infrastructure and services, Greases and lubes, and Industrial Packaging should be atleast valued at P/E 10-12 (Gateway Distriparks has P/E of 14, Castrol is available at P/E of 26). So by adding up the numbers, we get the fair value of ~Rs.1500 crore vs. mcap of Rs. ~900 crores for the whole company making a stock at really attractive “BUY”.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

10 SIMPLE RULES TO MAKE PROFIT IN 2010

2009-12-26T20:49:00.002+05:30

THIS LONG WEEKEND HAS GIVEN EXCELLENT OPPERTUNITY TO ALL OF US TO REGROUP OUR ENERGIES TO MAKE BEST OF 2010.

As said earlier 2010 will be the most profitable year for investor’s worldwide especially in India. But most of the investors have missed the previous rally. Now it is high time to learn from past mistakes, Markets has nearly doubled in last one year, was your investment doubled? If your answer is no then go ahead and read the article.

• The most important thing: believe in the market and go along with it, never try to Predict the market.

• Pick a stock based on its future potential do not give undue importance to P/E,EPS etc

• Technical analysis works for a very short period and in a stable market

• Learn to book profit in a very strict manner and more important restrict your losses within your bearable limit with strict stop-loss.

• Never buy a stock because of a news or recommendation on TV,MEDIA as positions are built in same stocks prior to releasing the news in media in most of the cases,

• Build a wholesome portfolio so that loss will be minimal if some pick goes wrong. Never invest more than 10% of your investible fund in a single stock and 25% in a single sector.

• Invest 50% in large cap, 35% in midcap and rest keep rotating in intra or positional trade.

• Learn the art of portfolio churning at regular intervals as per your investment style and after a major event like Budget, Election etc.

• Never overtrade in margin. Ideally not more than 10% of your capital is deployed in margin trade in volatile times like this.

• Invest in sunrise sectors in 2010 like logistic, media, power, infrastructure and so on

HAPPY WEEKEND

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

FII’s pour 80,000 crore in 2009

2009-12-26T20:21:00.004+05:30

FII buying over the past few days and led to Markets making new high.The foreign institutional investors (FIIs) flocked back by pouring in a record Rs 80,000 crore in domestic equities so far in 2009.
Fresh buying by FII’s led to domestic investors putting in more money even in the last 2-3 days. DII’s on the other bought shares worth 305,675 cr and made a selling of 279,051 cr in Cash Market.
February 2009 was when FII’s and DII’s remained very quiet,DII’s transactions amounted to 24,103 cr’s, where as FII’ transaction amounted to 46,966 cr’s, these were the lowest recorded numbers of Institutional investment in 2009 (cash market).
Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

With the healthy growth in the domestic business and revival in exports.....

2009-12-24T15:08:00.003+05:30

expect Nestle to witness 17.7 per cent CAGR in revenues and 24.6 per cent in profit over CY09-11.

Reco price: Rs 2,568

Current market price: Rs 2,525.55

Target price: Rs 2,915

Upside:15.4%
Milk products and prepared dishes segments will be the key growth drivers for the company. The introduction of SKUs at low price points has helped to widen the consumer base and increase penetration of its brands. The improvement in exports from CY10 onwards is expected to fuel beverage sales that declined in the first nine months of CY09. The growth in the chocolates’ segment, that reported a muted volume growth due to sharp price hikes, is also expected to be back on track during CY10.
The strong pricing power and robust brand portfolio would help Nestle maintain operating margins despite firm raw material prices. With the increasing production from the Pant Nagar plant, Nestle would be able to save heavily on excise and tax front. Given the strong growth potential in the domestic market, the brokerage has revised its earnings estimates upwards by 3 per cent for CY09 and around 4 per cent for CY10.
At Rs 2,568, the stock is trading at 29.4 times its estimated CY10 EPS of Rs 88.3 and 24 times estimated CY11 EPS of Rs 107.2. Maintain "buy stocks" rating.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Short term delivery calls [1-2 months]:

2009-12-21T13:16:00.004+05:30

Indag rubber.. target 130

Shilp Gravures.. target 100

Thinksoft.. target 350, 400

Bilpower.. target 260

Crew BOS product.. 72

Nilkamal plastic.. 200+ [1 week] PREFERED@188

Happy trading! All the best

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala Portfolio Holdings - As on Sept. 2009

2009-12-19T18:08:00.002+05:30

Checkout Latest Rakesh Jhunjhunwala holdings. Here is a portfolio of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala updated as per shareholding Data of September 2009 with stock trading exchanges.
Name Of Company No of Shares

. NAGARJUNA CONSTRUCTION CO. LTD 5,000,000

. AGRO TECH FOODS LTD. 1,153,700

. AGRO TECH FOODS LTD. 849,559

. ALPHAGEO (INDIA) LIMITED 125,000

. AUTOLINE INDUSTRIES LIMITED 520,000

. AUTOLINE INDUSTRIES LIMITED 731,233

. BILCARE LTD. 1,735,425

. BILCARE LTD. 267,500

. CRISIL LIMITED 550,000

. DWARIKESH SUGAR INDUSTRIES LIMITED 450,000

. GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED 18,000,000

. GEOMETRIC LIMITED 4,465,000

. GEOMETRIC LIMITED 850,000

. HINDUSTAN OIL EXPLORATION CO. LTD 1,887,273

. INFOMEDIA 18 LIMITED 691,828

. INFOMEDIA 18 LIMITED 814,234

. ION EXCHANGE (INDIA) LTD. 650,000

. J.B.CHEMICALS & PHARMACEUTICALS LTD. 1,251,650

. KAJARIA CERAMICS LTD 2,502,642

. KARUR VYSYA BANK LTD 2,568,724

. LUPIN LIMITED 29,68,835

. MID-DAY MULTIMEDIA LIMITED 2,250,000

. PRAJ INDUSTRIES LTD 11,678,624

. PRIME FOCUS LIMITED 250,000

. PROVOGUE (INDIA) LIMITED 1,900,000

. PUNJ LLOYD LIMITED 5,040,000

. RALLIS INDIA LTD. 768,088

. RISHI LASER LTD. 380,000

. TITAN INDUSTRIES LTD. 2,590,555

. TITAN INDUSTRIES LTD. 1,113,306

. VICEROY HOTELS LIMITED 4,250,000

. ZEN TECHNOLOGIES LTD. 450,000

. ZEN TECHNOLOGIES LTD. 450,000

Checkout Latest Rakesh Jhunjhunwala holdings. Here is a portfolio of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala updated as per shareholding Data of September 2009 with stock trading exchanges.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is considered to be the greatest investor in Indian Stock Market. He has made Rs 5000 crores by just investing Rs 5000 in Indian Stock Market over the period of 25 years.

(a) He advises people to become interested in a stock when none is interested in the same stock. As per him BUY RIGHT & HOLD TIGHT for years to come. He has been holding few stocks for last 10 years and he is still minting money from those stocks.
(b) He further advises that one should not follow big investors blindly as their risk profile and long term goals with time frame may be difficult to be followed by retail investor.
(c) Market is supreme and every thing is reflected in the price and thus their is no point in fighting the trend as market is always right.
(d) One should be able to create a balance between the fear and greed.
(e) As per his words one has to learn the stock market trading as none can teach the market as stock market experience is the best teacher.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

The chartical patterns of SEL Manufacturing Ltd shows a near term upturn in the scrip price,

2009-12-18T14:26:00.001+05:30

SEL Manufacturing Company Ltd

In case of SEL Manufacturing Company Ltd (BSE Code: 532886) the book value of the shares of the company is Rs.166.63 against the current market price (CMP) of Rs.72.15. Besides, SEL Manufacturing Company Ltd has an EPS of Rs.34.17 and Price/Book of only 0.46. It has one of the lowest P/E in the Textile sector, clocking a P/E of only 2.23 against the Industry P/E of 13. This naturally gives a rough price of around Rs.350-Rs.400 (after giving some discounts) for the scrip of SEL Manufacturing Company Ltd against the current market price of only Rs.76.15. With the US economy improving by leaps and bounds, the textile sector is expectd to get a positive kick going forward and since SEL Manufacturing Ltd is a prominent player, its share price is bound to appreciate in the days to come.

The chartical patterns of SEL Manufacturing Ltd shows a near term upturn in the scrip price, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, MACD, RSI, CCI, etc, are all in buy mode. The Candle Stick Chart Pattern also indicates a positive trend in the scrip in the immediate short term. Moreover, moving average cross-over has taken place which further gives ammunition to the bulls to fight any bear trap. In case of Prajay Engineers Syndicate, though RSI is not in perfect buy mode, however, Bollinger Bands, MACD, Stochastic, etc. are in buy mode. A cross-over would take the scrip of Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd to around Rs.37.5-Rs.42, in the very short term. The weekly Japanese Candle Stick Chart Patterns of Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd are giving an immediate trend reversal signals.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

ABG Shipyard - Stock Analysis

2009-12-14T12:11:00.001+05:30

Firstcall India equity research maintains `Buy stocks` on ABG Shipyard with a price target of Rs 242
The brokerage house pointed out at the current market price of around Rs 200, the stock is trading at a P/Ex of 5.68 times for FY10E and 5.12 times for FY11E
The EPS of the stock is expected to be at Rs 36.98 and Rs 40.98 for FY10E and FY11E respectively.
On the basis of price to book value, the stock trades at 1.04 times and 0.87 times for FY10E and FY11E respectively.
The net sales and PAT of the company is expected to grow at a CAGR of 23% and 9% respectively over FY08 to FY11E
The present macro scenario is bleak with erosion in demand for ship yards following a cyclical downturn in the shipping industry
However, ABG has not faced any cancellations or delays till date. In addition, since a
substantial part of ABG`s order backlog caters to the offshore industry, which has not seen such a steep fall as in case of shipping, it remains relatively insulated
They recommend to "buy stocks" with a target price of Rs 242 for medium to long term.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Stock Tips - Buy Visa Steel For Short Term

2009-12-14T12:09:00.004+05:30

NSEMumbaibull, independent equity research group has recommended to buy stocks of Visa steel limited (BSE Stock code: 532721) for short term investment for good returns.
The short term target for shares of Visa steel in coming days could be at Rs. 45.
Looking at the charts, Rs. 36/- level seems to be providing a strong support for stock and the upward move can be up to Rs. 44 - 45 Levels where one should sell stocks.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

E-MAIL,sharekhan.guide@gmail.com
contact;09013177977,AMIT

Accumulate Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd and for some decent returns going forward.

2009-12-11T10:51:00.001+05:30

It is to be noted that the shares of Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd (BSE Code: 531746) has a book value of Rs.151.09, while its current market price is only Rs.30.15—an aberration of sorts. The land holdin...gs of Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd spread across India, has appreciated in value in the last few months, as the real estate sector stated to recover from the slowdown blues. According to some estimates, the current land valuation of Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd is more than Rs.1500 Cr. This land valuation is expected to give a positive spin to the shares of the company going forward. A stock which was available around Rs.400, only a couple of years back, is now avaialable at Rs.30.15!! Can you believe??!! The current price of the shares also looks quite impossible considering the present business model of the company. According to my sources in Hyderabad, the company has completed the 3-star hotel and its operations are expected to begin in full swing in the next 6 months time frame. You have seen how the news of the brand new Hotel of NEPC India Ltd (which I broke in Face Book ahead of any Business Channels) inflated the scrip from Rs.8.50 to yesterday’s freezing price of Rs.12.06 in matter of weeks. Prajay Engineers Ltd is also expected replicate the price movements on NEPC India Ltd or Sanguine Media Services Ltd, the latter is hitting upper circuits during the last 3 days, after it was strongly recommended in Face Book.
Now coming to the Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd, we would find that the company is doing lot of projects both in the Real Esate/Construction and Hospitality/Leisure Sectors. Though still the core business of Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd is real esate, but soon the hospitality bsuiness is expected to garner sufficient revenues for the company.
Now considering the Hospitality/Leisure Business of the company here are some of its projects (Source:http://www.prajayengineers.com):

(a) Hill Springs Golf and Leisure Club: Located in Antheypalli and spread over a 130-acre area, Prajay Hill Springs is Hyderabad’s first signature 18-hole PGA Championship-class golf course with a leisure club. A BOT project developed in conjuction with the Government of Andhra Pradesh, under their tourism related development programme, it is being planned and developed by an internationally renowned golf architect from Dubai – M/s Harradine Golf.

(b) 3 Star hotel: Offers 140 rooms as part of the Celebrity Mall complex at Abids

(c) Business-class Hotel: Offers 290 rooms within the Prajay Princeton Towers complex at Dilsukh Nagar.
(d) 5 Star Business-class Hotel: Offers 400 rooms with 150 service apartments at Hitech City.
Real Estate Sector: Industry Overview: The real estate sector has witnessed tremendous growth in the last decade, especially during 2005-09. This growth is attributable to the policy and regulatory initiatives of the government. Relaxation in FDI norms as well as rationalization of a few taxes over this period has increased investor interest. Financiers on their part have supported the sector with low interest rates.

The contribution of real estate construction activity to the GDP has increased from 5 per cent in 1996-97 to 6.5 per cent in 2007-08. Further, the contribution of real estate services to the GDP has increased from 5.7 per cent to 7.6 per cent during the same period. According to industry players, housing accounts for 4.5 per cent of the GDP with urban housing accounting for 3.13 per cent. Estimates suggest that the size of the Indian real estate sector is around $ 48 billion and is growing at the rate of 30 per cent per annum. The sector is currently the second largest employer in the country after agriculture.

The IT and ITES sector alone is estimated to require 150 million sq ft of office space across urban India by 2010. Organized retail is also responsible for the growth in commercial office space requirement. The organized retail industry is likely to require an additional 220 million sq ft by 2010. Moreover, growth is not restricted to a few towns and cities but is pan-India, covering nearly all tier-I and tier-II cities. Almost 80 per cent of real estate developed in India is residential space, the rest comprising of offices, shopping malls, hotels and hospitals. According to the Tenth Five-Year-Plan, there is a shortage of 22.4 million dwelling units. Thus, over the next 10 to 15 years, 80 to 90 million housing dwelling units will have to be constructed with a majority of them catering to middle- and lower-income groups. Apart from the huge demand, India also scores on the construction front. A McKinsey report reveals that the average profit from construction in India is 18 per cent, which is double the profitability for a construction project undertaken in the US.

this scrips trading at a considerable discount to their intrinsic values and hence they should be accumulated on all declines

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

The recent recovery in Indian economy has once again increased the demand for steel products.

2009-12-09T13:25:00.003+05:30

There has been significant rise in auto sales and other consumer goods in last few months. All these factors have led to a rise in sales of flat steel products. Bhushan Steel, @1611 a leading producer of flat products, is set to benefit from all these.
This stock was recommended in Economic Times Investors’ Guide earlier. At that time the stock was trading at around Rs 1,000 per share and is up 30% since then. There is still lot of juice left in the stock and we recommend investors to stay invested. The gains will be driven by faster topline growth coupled with backward integration, which will lead to significant improvement in operating margins. Investors with a mid-term horizon of 2-3 years can add this stock to their portfolio kitty.
BUSINESS:

Bhushan Steel is a secondary steel producer and mainly produces value added flat products. It gets more than twothird of its revenue from cold rolled and galvanized steel products. Bulk of its revenue comes from the automobile and white goods sector, which uses the flat products predominantly.
It has three plants, located strategically in different parts of the country. The Dhenkanal plant in Orissa is close to the raw material source and manufacturers sponge iron and billets, the primary steel products. The Khopoli plant in Maharashtra and Sahibabad plant in Uttar Pradesh are close to the two auto hubs in India namely Pune and Gurgaon. These two plants primarily manufacture cold rolled and galvanized products used by the auto companies. It has a close to one million ton capacity for cold rolled products, which is used as a key input for other value added products.
FINANCIALS:

The company’s topline has almost doubled in last four years to Rs 5,000 crore in FY 2008-09. The net profit, however, grew at a faster rate during the same time period.
For last four years, the company has been making significant capex to link its operations backwards and to become more integrated. Bulk of this capex program is being financed through debt. As a result, its debt-equity ratio has increased close to four, from the two earlier. This is not a major concern given its higher interest coverage ratio (more than 5). The company has expanded its operating margin by around 500 basis points over last two years to 20.4% in FY 2008-09. In fact, its operating margin in September 2009 quarter increased to around 26%, thus reflecting the partial impact of backward integration. Its return on capital employed (ROCE) of 10% for last several years appear to be lower. But this is a result of higher capital expenditure made during the same time period.
GROWTH DRIVERS:

The company plans to make a structural change in its business model to become an integrated steel company. The management feels that at a time when primary steel producers are planning to produce more value added products, it is imperative for the company to integrate itself backwards to remain competitive in secondary market.
The integration process itself will be completed in two steps. In first step, the company will set up around 2 million tons of hot rolled coil (HRC) and 0.3 million tons of slab capacity by this year-end. The HRC capacity will be further augmented to 5 million tons by FY ‘13. In second step, the company will start mining iron ore and coal from the mines allocated to it. This process will take around 4-5 years.
Hence, the full impact of integration, from mining to value added steel products, can be seen from FY ‘14 onwards. The company has already spent 50% of total capex required for all these expansion programs.
VALUATION:

The full impact of first phase of expansion will start flowing into the financials of the company from FY ‘11 onwards. As a result of this backward integration, its net profit margin is expected to rise to 15-16%, from the current 9%. This will also boost the company’s operating cash flow significantly.
The earning per share (EPS) for FY ‘10 and FY ‘11 is estimated to be Rs 171 and Rs 243 respectively. At the current price level, the forward price-earning multiple works out to be 7.9x and 5.6x for FY ‘10 and FY ‘11 respectively. The company’s scrip has always traded at a P/E multiple in the range of 13-17 during good times. This provides significant upside potential for investors with a horizon of 2-3 years.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

I am still playing for 5500+ by Jan 2010,

2009-12-09T13:03:00.001+05:30

This is the question that is being asked by every trader and investor. I am still playing for 5500+ by Jan 2010, although I am not too sure as to which sectors will probably take it there.

So far auto, IT and pharma have been the leaders in this rally. If this market has to go past 5500, we need some buying in stocks like Reliance, BHEL and L&T. So I’d be keeping a close eye on these stocks and will try to catch the next big wave in them( if it happens!)

Auto and banking might be a bit of a drag on the index if interest rate hikes come through earlier than expected. Although in the long term, banking is definitely looking like a star performer.If the Indian growth story returns, this is a sector that will benefit the most from any upturn. So any correction would be a good opportunity to grab these stocks.

What I like the most about current market action is the absence of widespread euphoria. The retail investor is still sceptical about this rally and is happy to earn his 6% in a fixed deposit. As long as this risk aversion prevails, this market might continue to climb slowly.

Technically, 4970-80 remains a good support in the short term. On the upside 5200 is the critical hurdle. Above 5200, we might see a lot of short term traders jumping in and chasing market momentum.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

NHPC should do R-Power.

2009-12-08T13:18:00.002+05:30

In sept MF bought around 10 crore shares of nhpc read this story from moneycontrol siteMutual funds, MFs bought huge quantity of shares of India’s largest hydro power generator NHPC, technology company 3i Infotech and FMCG and tobacco major ITC, while reduced exposure to Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Petroleum, India’s largest telecom player Bharti Airtel and AV Birla group company Idea Cellular. Oil & gas, banking & finance and auto dominated the top 50-buy list. However, selling was seen in shares of telecom, realty, shipping, construction & cement, chemical and metal companies. Stocks were re-aligned in the technology, FMCG, power, pharma and media sectors.

In terms of value, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank and Oil India were the top purchases by MFs, while Reliance Petroleum, HDFC and Bharti Airtel topped the selling list.
A study of the top ten mutual funds` equity portfolios as on September 30, which are Reliance, HDFC, ICICI, DSP BR, SBI, Tata, Templeton, UTI, Kotak and Birla Top shares traded by MFs (based on volume)

Top 5 shares bought

No. of Shares

NHPC 102865991

3i Infotech 11884118

ITC 11369062

Ashok Leyland 9485886

IDFC 8881771

Top 5 shares sold

No. of Shares

Reliance Petroleum -48195918

Bharti Airtel -11651134

Idea Cellular -10732249

Rural Electrification -10055426

Rico Auto -8552563

Sun Life reveals that seven out of eight funds bought shares of NHPC, which listed on September 01. The company raised over Rs 6,000 crore via public offering, which opened for subscription during August 7 and August 12, 2009. It was still trading below issue price while writing this article. Among these seven funds, ICICI Pru and SBI MFs bought biggest quantity of shares, which was over 4 crore shares each. Among other power stocks, Suzlon Energy and GMR Infrastructure were bought. However, PTC India, Power Grid Corporation, Adani Power, GVK Power, Areva T&D and NTPC and Rural Electrification Corporation were sold

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Continuing the series "Best Stocks To Buy For 2010"

2009-12-05T16:16:00.002+05:30

here is another good stock to buy in 2010 which could fetch you excellent returns over the next one year time horizon.

Ratnamani Metals & Tubes (BSE code:520111) produces a wide range of Stainless Steel Welded / Seamless Tubes & Pipes and Carbon Steel Welded Pipes. The company caters to the niche markets of almost all the emerging sectors like oil and gas, refineries, petrochemicals, process industries, power plants and water distribution.
The company has been witnessing gradual improvement in its business environment. RMTL’s specialty products consumed in high-growth sectors like power would drive the volumes going forward. Further, meaningful revival in orders from the refinery sector could add to incremental orders
Recently, Ratnamani Metals & Tubes (RMTL) has bagged Rs 152-crore gas transmission and distribution order from Gas Authority of India. This is going to be a positive for RMTL particularly when viewed against the backdrop of slower inflow since couple of quarters. While the order inflow is positive, the same has been bit slower than analyst estimates.
In Q2FY2010, RMTL’s top line is expected to report a de-growth of 20% to Rs203.1

crore. The margins are expected to improve on year-on-year basis on the back of decline in raw material cost. On the back of fall in revenues, the adjusted profits would decline by 8.6% year on year.
Incorporating the numbers from annual accounts and slower order intake in July-September quarter, the revised revenue and profit estimates lead to earnings per share (EPS) estimates of Rs 17.4 and Rs 22.2 for FY 2010 and FY 2011 respectively.
Vital Numbers:
Market Cap 446.60

* EPS (TTM) 13.72

* P/E 7.22

* P/C 4.87

* Book Value 63.02

* Price/Book 1.57

Div(%) 90.00

Div Yield(%) 1.82

Market Lot 1.00

Face Value 2.00

Industry P/E 13.83

At the current market price of Rs. 98, the stock trades at 4.5x its FY2011 estimates, which is attractive and so one may buy stocks of the company. The stock price target could be Rs. 180 in a year's time i.e. almost double of CMP. Buy stocks on dips.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

The Mangalam Cement stock is possibly one of the cheapest in the cement sector right now

2009-12-02T11:33:00.001+05:30

trading at just 2.6 times its trailing 12 months earnings. Also, the stock trades at just 1.2 times its book value for the year ended March 09, coupled with a high dividend yield of 4.6%. This stock provides an attractive investment opportunity as one of the long-term investments.
MANGALAM Cement part of the BK Birla Group has grown aggressively over the past three years, thanks to robust demand conditions. Kumarmangalam Birla, who will inherit BK Birla controlled Kesoram Industries and Century Textiles, will own a 17.7% stake in Mangalam Cement via these entities and account for a significant portion of the promoter holding.
CAPACITY & EXPANSION PLANS

Mangalams capacity was 2 million tonne at the end of FY 09, double the level from two years ago. The company invested Rs 198.6 crore as capex during this period and its cash flow was Rs 277 crore. Despite the capex, Mangalam Cements leverage ratio was just 0.17 at the end of March 09, compared to 0.48 two years earlier.
Its key markets are Rajasthan, UP and Delhi, where demand conditions have remained strong thanks to governmentfunded projects and rural housing projects, and price realisations have also remained higher on a y-o-y basis. The board of Mangalam Cement had earlier given its in-principle approval for setting up a new cement plant with a capacity of 1.5 million tonne at its existing plant site in Rajasthans Kota district. In addition, the company plans to set up a captive power plant with a capacity of 17.5 MW, for which it has placed orders.
The cost of this expansion project is estimated at Rs 750 crore, which would be financed via internal accruals to the tune of Rs 300 crore and the remainder by debt. Given the strong cash flows of Mangalam Cement, financing this project over the next two years should not be a problem.
FINANCIALS

The companys operating profit margin rose by 1,460 basis points y-o-y to 36.2% in the September 09 quarter, helped by its realisation that improved an estimated 23.2% y-o-y to Rs 3919 per tonne. However , the companys total despatches declined 2.1% y-o-y to 423,000 tonne in the second quarter of FY 10.
Compared to its peers, Mangalam Cement has handled its operational costs quite efficiently. For instance, in the year ended March 09, the company spent nearly Rs 831 per tonne on power & fuel costs. The corresponding figure for Shree Cement and JK Cement was Rs 781.6 per tonne and Rs 1,000 per tonne, respectively, for FY 09. Also, while Mangalam Cement has reported a decline in its power cost over last three years, its other two peers have reported a rise.
Market Cap: 336.61

EPS (TTM): 46.76

**P/E: 2.70

P/C: 2.26

* Book Value: 107.79

* Price/Book: 1.17

Div(%): 55.00

Div Yield(%): 4.36

Market Lot: 1.00

Face Value: 10.00

Industry P/E: 9.20
VALUATIONS

At Rs 127, Mangalam Cement trades with a P /E of just 2.6 times its trailing earnings. Binani Cement, on the other hand, trades at 5.4 times while JK Cement trades at 3.9 times. It's CMP is close to book value making it a value stock.
Mutual Fund, SBI Magnum Emerging Businesses Fund (Growth), holds stocks of Mangalam cement in it's portfolio.
Considering all valuations and growth opportunities due to reviving demand from infrastructure sector, Investors may buy stocks of Mangalam Cement as long-term investment.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Buy Accentia Technologies Ltd (BSE Code: 531897) at the CMP .

2009-12-01T11:54:00.002+05:30

I had yesterday, given a buy call on the scrip for good targets in the next 30-45 days. The MACD(Moving Average Convergence Divergence) of the scrip is about to show positive divergence on the hourly charts (of the scrip). The Stochastic is in buy mode and Bollinger bands have also confirmed the same. Moreover, the fact that the Accentia Technologies Ltd is above the Rs.112 makes it ideal for investment in the short term. The company has opened new units as part of Government of Kerala's new Technology initiative.

Accentia Technologies Ltd is a leading global Healthcare Receivables Cycle Management (HRCM) organisation, involved in the areas of Medical Documentation, Medical Coding, Billing Receivables Management & Integration and restructuring solutions to the healthcare service organisations. It has recently secured an extension of its SEZ implementation at Cochin from the Development Commissioner. The Company intends to set up its Legal Process Outsourcing and Mega Monitering and Research Activities from Cochin.

THE MUMBAI (BOMBAY) BASED ACCENTIAL TECHNOLOGIES LTD HAS UNITS IN PORTLAND, OREGON, USA, FT. LAUDERDALE, FL, USA, NEW JERSY, USA, RAK, UAE, BANGALORE, HYDERBAD, KOLKATA (CALCUTTA), CHANDIGARH, TRIVANDRUM. COCHIN, BHUBENESHWAR, ETC.

With Total Revenues of Rs.238 Cr in FY09, Accentia Technologies Ltd enables its clients to maximise returns by reducing its costs and revenue cycle by implementing customized processes, onsite and offsite operations, coupled with state of the art solutions; ensuring high level of customer satisfaction. The company ensures this through its domain and process management expertise, domain specific IT skills, time tested innovative delivery models and focus on off-shoring.

The September, 2009 quarter results of the company (Accentia Tech) are fantastic. The net profit of the company for Q2FY10 is Rs.32.94 Cr on a small equity of only Rs.13.44 Cr. This gave a diluted EPS (Earning Per Share) of Rs.24.33 in September, 2009 quarter alone---can you imagine??!!!!

It has one of the lowest P/E (Price/Earnings) multiples in the whole of Information Technology Sector. Just close your eyes and buy the scrip at the CMP . for superb gains in the short term.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Golden Rules

2009-11-29T15:29:00.001+05:30

• Divide your capital into 4 equal risk parts.

• Never over trade.

• Never place order for BUY/SELL without stop loss conditions.

• Never let profit turn into loss.

• Trade with the trend.

• Never take lead you may loose heavily.

• Never try to be over smart.

• Don’t trade if trend not clear

• Don’t follow tips only.

• Use the right orders only.

• Withdraw portion of profits.

• Don’t be whimsical about closing your trades.

• Never buy a stock to get dividend.

• Never average your losses.

• Take big profits and small losses.

• Sell short as often as you go long.

• Never buy any stock just it is low priced.

• Pyramid your trades correctly.

• Decrease your trading after a series of successful trades.

• Don’t change your opinions during market hours.

• Don’t follow the crowd – they are usually wrong.

• Buy on rumor and sell on news.

• Take windfall gains when you get.

• Keep your charts up to date.

• Preserve your capital.

• Nothing ever new occurs in market.

• Markets are never wrong opinion may be.

• Never permit speculative ventures to turn into investments.

• Never try to predetermine your profits.

• Never buy a stock just because it is low priced or don’t sell just because it is high priced.

• Look for reasonable profits.

• Buy as soon as a stock makes new highs after a normal reaction.

• Ban wishful thinking in the market.

• Leaders of today may not be leaders of tomorrow.

• Don’t be too cautious about reasons behind the moves.

• Trade only the active stocks.

• Bear markets have no support and bull markets have no resistance.

• The smarter you are the longer it takes.

• It is very hard to get out of a trade than to get in.

• Don’t talk about what you are doing in the market.

• When time is up, markets must reverse.

• Control what you can; manage what you can not.

• Big movements take time to develop.

• A good trade is profitable right from the start.

• If you can not make money trading the leading issues you can not make it trading the overall market.

• Avoid partnership in trading accounts.

• The human side of every person is the greatest enemy of successful trading.

• Money can not be made every day in the market.

• As long as market is acting right don’t rush to take profits.

• Never buy a stock just because it has fallen from a great high, nor sell a stock because it is high priced.

When u are Getting Free calls with accuracy of more then 80% +.....Sometime our stock fails...but then we give stop & resistance levels too.
Always remember...no force or single person can move stock.Its a game of mass

psychology.We look at chart ,collect information and just spread it .......free of cost
Always Remember :Never pay money to anybody ..who is asking for it.Just ask any Analyst (TV ,Media ,Print or Website wale Analyst ko pucho............What is their success ratio in Day trading???A Million $ Question ...Doing Bla-Bla on TV ,writing on web is very easy......but while u trade .....u are playing with live wire

wish u happy trading to all of u.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Dubai World is Dubai's standard bearer for global investments.

2009-11-29T15:22:00.002+05:30

The government-owned holding company is at the center of Dubai's thrust to diversify its economy into property, leisure and investment -- both locally and globally.Dubai is the most populous of the seven Emirates -- a territory ruled by a Muslim monarch -- that make up the United Arab Emirates.Dubai World was established in March 2006 under a decree ratified by the ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. Sheikh Mohammed also holds a majority stake in the company.

Dubai World has four main arms of investment: Transport and Logistics, Drydocks and Maritime, Urban Development and Investment and Financial Services.The company's assets include DP World, one of the largest marine terminal operators in the world. In February 2006, DP World sparked a national security debate in the U.S. when it acquired ports operator P&O.

Several months later it sold P&O's U.S. assets following objections from U.S. legislators that U.S. ports would fall under control of a Middle Eastern operator.Focusing on Dubai, Drydocks World & Dubai Maritime City, is an organization tasked with turning the Emirate into a major shipbuilding and martime hub.Istithmar World is the group's investment arm. It is a world-class investment company with extensive investments outside Dubai, notably in Europe, the U.S.and South Africa.Dubai World made headlines in March 2008 after Chairman Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem threatened to take the fund's investment out of Europe, in response to a proposed EU code of conduct for sovereign wealth funds -- state-owned investment companies.

Perhaps the best known arm of Dubai World's holdings is Nakheel the property developer behind world famous projects like the artificial Palm Islands and The World, built on reclaimed land.

There are also plans for The Universe, a series of man-made islands in the shape of the sun, the moon and the planets that would wrap around Nakheel's The World project.If completed, Nakheel's ambitious waterfront development of Dubai would add over 600 miles of beachfront to the Emirate.In January 2009, Nakheel announced that work would be halted for 12 months in the ambitious project to build Nakheel Tower, a 200-story skyscraper that would soar to 1km high -- and would become the world's tallest building.

Dubai sent investors reeling Thursday after asking creditors to freeze the debt repayments of one of its biggest holding companies, Dubai World.The announcement came after the market close on the eve of the Eid holiday and Thanksgiving in the U.S., leaving traders' hands tied over their exposure to investments in the Emirate.Shares dropped in London and Europe as bankers struggled to gauge the implications of the debt freeze without additional guidance from Wall Street.With very little information being distributed from Dubai, the market has been left to question the motives of ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum and the financial future of Dubai World and its huge portfolio.

So what happened?

Late Wednesday, the government of Dubai issued a statement saying it had authorised the Dubai Financial Support Fund to "spearhead the restructure of Dubai World with immediate effect."

The first step, it said, was to ask all providers of financing to Dubai World and Nakheel to "standstill" its debt repayments until at least May 30, 2010. It added, to the market's surprise, that the proceeds of a $5 billion bond issue raised hours earlier wouldn't be used to bail the company out.

Odd timing wasn't it?

Dubai's decision to release its statement just before the Eid holiday in the Middle East, and on the eve of Thanksgiving in the U.S., provoked consternation.

"Dubai have certainly picked their moment to finally own up to a need to restructure their debt. I would imagine the news has ruined a few Thanksgiving dinners today," David Morrsion, a strategist at GFT told the Financial Times.

How did the markets react?

Banking stocks led equity markets lower in London and Europe as traders moved to distance themselves from a potential debt hole in the Middle East. Technical problems in London halted trade for some time, providing further frustration for traders with exposure to Dubai World's lenders.

How severe is the debt?

Dubai World is said to account for some $59 billion of Dubai's $80 billion debt burden. Nakheel had been due to pay a $3.5 billion convertible loan which expires on December 14. More debts were due to be repaid next year.

"This is not just a couple of billion story," Turker Hamzaoglu, EMEA economist at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research told CNN.

"For instance, Dubai has to service $10 billion including the Nakheel debt in December and $15 billion U.S. dollars by the end of 2010," he added.

How much damage has the announcement done?

That's incalculable at this stage. Markets in the Middle East and the U.S. don't open until next week so the full impact won't be known until then. It also depends on Dubai's next move. The surprise announcement has shaken confidence in the Emirate as a place to do business.

"The key here is the communication of this strategy. I guess everybody is on the same page regarding the need for consolidation in Dubai and for the region. But the only market-positive implication would be if this comes with a clearly open and a predictable way," Hamzaoglu said.

"The problem is, here we have a lack of transparency and all these policy reactions are either coming at the last minute, or for example, the recent one just before the long holiday."

"I think this is going to shake some investor confidence which may not be reversed as quickly as people expect. So they have to be careful," he added.

Who will bail them out?

Abu Dhabi has been a lucrative source of funding for its neighbor. The $5 billion bond issue was take up by UAE banks.

The question now is whether it will continue to give its backing to its debt-laden neighbour. It may have the money to do so, but does it have the will?

What comes next?

Ideally, the market wants guidance as to Dubai's debt strategy. It has said that the Dubai World debt freeze is the first stage of a restructuring plan. Investors want to know what comes next.

Right now, the region is seen as a risky bet for nervous investors. Hamzaoglu says there are other options for those who want to back similar markets.

"From an investor perspective, if you want to still play for the global backdrop of oil prices, etc. there are some other markets, say Brazil or Russia, that investors can be interested in, rather than taking this high risk for the region," he said.

Market experts say the debt revelations from Dubai this week will not lead the global economy back into recession, but have seriously damaged the Emirate's standing as a leading financial hub.

The Dubai government caught investors off-guard late Wednesday by announcing it was asking creditors for a six-month moratorium on the debt repayments of Dubai World and Nakheel, one of its biggest holding companies and its real estate arm. The U.S. stock market opened lower on Friday as traders seized their first chance to respond to the news after the Thanksgiving holiday.

The Dow closed 153 points down while Nasdaq and the S&P lost 1.7 percent, although although light trading -- markets were only open half-a-day due to the holidays -- exaggerated any volatility in markets. European markets closed higher after recouping earlier losses. Earlier, Asian markets fell amid worries about the impact of Dubai's debt problems elsewhere.

"It's so easy to jump onto the gloom and doom bandwagon over this," Stephen Pope, Chief Global Equity Strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald told CNN.

For more than a decade, Dubai has set a new standard for pace of development. Cranes have dominated the skyline in a rapid flurry of building to establish the Emirate as not only a financial center, but a leading tourism hub.Long ago, the Emirate's ruler recognized that it would have to find another source of income as its oil reserves were depleted.

The call for a debt freeze came after a series of high-profile glamorous events. Just last week, Dubai hosted the Dubai World Championships, the climax of the inaugural Race to Dubai, one of the world's richest golf competitions.

Dubai is one of seven emirates which make up the United Arab Emirates.

Located on the southern coast of the Persian Gulf it is 3885 square kilometers in size and has a population of 1,758,244. It is ruled by Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. The Al Maktoum family has ruled Dubai since 1833. It is the fastest growing city in the world.After the Dubai government announcement, ratings agencies Standard & Poors' and Moody's downgraded their ratings on a number of Dubai's largest companies, including DP World and the Jebel Ali Free Zone. They both said their response reflected Dubai's announcement on the restructuring of Dubai World.

Farouk Soussa, Head of Middle East Government ratings at Standard & Poor's, told CNN the agency had been flagging issues about the debt burden of Dubai World and Nakheel since April.

"The fact that they are having difficulty repaying this debt is not news, it is not a surprise. What is more of a surprise is that the government of Dubai has not stepped in to help them out," Soussa said.

He said Standard & Poor's downgraded the likelihood of government support for Dubai's struggling companies back in June, and again on Wednesday, but analysts were working in an "information vacuum."

"The question of support is really the million dollar question. Very little has been said by the government specifically on this question throughout the last year," he said.

"In an opaque policy environment, what people have had to do is make assumptions regarding government support -- and clearly those assumptions were too high."

Few analysts expect Dubai to allow Dubai World to fail. It would come at too great a cost to the region.

But for Dubai, he says the damage has been done.

This drives a big hole into Dubai's ambitions of being the regional financial center because there's no shortage of other contenders for that.

Bahrain would like to have that mantle back again, Qatar is building up very aggressively there and is of course is seen as being one of the main players.

And Saudi Arabia has been touting Jeddah as regional hub, so there's no shortage of competitors who could take that role away from Dubai.

PICK OF THE WEEK:

2009-11-26T13:52:00.002+05:30

Alchemist Realty Ltd

BSE Code: 532114

Face Value: Rs.2

CMP: Rs.14.54

Market Cap: Rs.107.74 Cr

EPS: Re.0.11

Introduction: Formerly known as Pan Packaging Industries Ltd, the Company’s principal activity at present is to develop real estate property. Pan Packaging Industries Private Ltd. was originally incorporated as Private Limited company on 03 March 1983 to manufacture and supply Corrugated Boxes. The name and style of the company was changed as Pan Packaging Industries Limited on 25th April 1995. The company started its commercial production in 13-03-1984 which was its first phase of operations with an installed capacity of 900 TPA. Alchemist Realty is now widely recognized as one of the growing innovative real estate companies in India.

The Company now engages in the acquisition and development of real estate and infrastructure facilities in India. It real estate development projects include housing projects, cottages, recreation clubs, and other infrastructure projects. The company which was formerly known as Pan Packaging Industries Limited changed its name to Alchemist Realty Limited in 2006. Alchemist Realty Limited is based in Mumbai, India.

Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 42.3 % while the general public holds 57.70% according to the latest data available.

Shareholding belonging to the category

"Public" and holding more than 1% of the Total No. of Shares

Sl. No. Name of the Shareholder No. of Shares Shares as % of Total No. of Shares

1 Endogram Leasing & Trading C 8,605,580 11.61

2 Basic Soft Solutions Pvt Ltd 4,878,500 6.58

3 Manbhavan Buildwell Pvt 2,442,285 3.30

4 Basics Soft Solutions Pvt Ltd 1,917,750 2.59

5 Amandeep 2,635,200 3.56

6 Archna Singh 1,560,000 2.11

7 Sunil Talwar 1,052,695 1.42

8 Varinder Pal Singh 912,730 1.23

9 HS FII Investments Ltd 7,115,000 9.60

10 CLSA Mauritius Ltd 7,112,000 9.60

11 Somerset Emerging Opport 1,143,944 1.54

Total 39,375,684 53.14

Financials: In FY09, though the net sales of the company increased but the net profit declined due to higher investments in Land Plots & Constructed Properties. The net income of the company for FY09 came out to be Rs.101.55 Cr as against Rs.82.87 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company came out to be Rs.1.03 Cr in FY09 as against Rs.4.54 Cr in the same period previous year. In Q2FY10, the total income of the company came out to be Rs.28.071 Cr as against Rs.5.7 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company for Q2FY10 came out to be Rs.24.62 lakhs as against Rs.12.43 lakhs in the same period previous year. During the quarter ended September, 2009, the company declared a divided of 5%, i.e.Re.0.10 per equity share of Rs.2 each for the year FY09.

Triggers:

• During the year, the Company acquired lands at various locations all over the country and is in the process of launching many projects in Real Estate Development which includes housing projects, cottages, recreation clubs and other infrastructure projects. The Company has also finalized Joint Venture agreements with various Companies for launch of prestigious projects.

• In the last fiscal the Company issued 7040100 equity shares of the face value of Rs.10 each as bonus shares to the shareholders in the ratio of 1:1 i.e. One bonus share for every one scare held by the shareholders as on record date i.e. 7th February, 2008. This somewhat proves that it is in investor friendly.

• Alchemist Realty Limited is a real estate company, for which land is a key asset. The Company believes in acquiring lower cost land in suburban area and transforming them into modem and utilizes land. With this philosophy intact, the Company has continued to develop its land bank. This is quite evident in FY09 results, when the company invested more in assets as compared to the same value in previous year. Needless to say in FY08 and FY09, the Company acquired newer land parcels in various parts of North India.

• Alchemist Realty Limited is focused on developing itself as a premium brand that enjoys a strong sense of trust amongst its stakeholders. There has been a constant endeavor to focus on creating a brand that embodies all the Company’s strategic goals and corporate values. In the real estate space, the Alchemist Realty Limited stands for: (a) Ability to identify and procure land in strategic locations, (b) Experience in executing large projects, c) Superior design, construction and development.

• The company is exploring various opportunities in the real estate business and has also finalized Joint Venture agreements with various other players in the Real Estate for launch of prestigious projects. With the continuous trend of shifting population from rural areas to urban areas, increase in the size of population, the demand of both residential and commercial properties is showing an upward trend. Moreover, it is now widely believed that the US Fed will happily risk inflation in order to avoid deflation, Because the US Fed is far more worried about the possibility of deflation (systematically falling prices) caused by a double-dip recession. Japan in the 1990s suffered economic stagnation for a decade because of deflation, and the US is determined to avoid that path. So, it will keep interest rates at virtually zero for the foreseeable future. So this is expected to increases money supply by over a trillion dollars in the world and that too at virtually zero interest. The dollar is an international currency whose impact is felt across the world. Investors and speculators everywhere know that growth prospects are much better in emerging markets than in the West. So they are borrowing hundreds of billions of dollars at dirt-cheap rates to buy stocks, real estate and commodities in emerging markets. Hence, asset values are getting inflated not just in India but in all emerging markets. This is expected to push the investors to real estate stocks and pure real estates in future. The company stands to gain from this move as it has a sizable land bank.

• The last year there was news in a section of the media that Alchemist Realty Ltd will invest over Rs.5, 000 Cr in the next 7-10 years for developing a land bank of 10,600 acres. The company’s land bank in CY08, stood at 10,600 acres across the country, mainly in the northern states.

• Alchemist Realty proposes to open a chain of specialty restaurants in northern India under ‘Red Cap’ brand. At first, the company would open only 20 (twenty) restaurants by the end of FY11 in northern states. The size of the outlets would vary from 3,200 sq ft to 6,500 sq ft. The company would also develop over 1,000 high-end housing units by 2011. The company would construct luxury villas on nine acres of land in Shimla and an IT park at Chandigarh.

Conclusion: Considering all the factors mentioned above it will be prudent to invest in the shares of Alchemist Realty Ltd for medium to long term perspective, though some short term gains till Rs.21 cannot be ruled out.

From the weekly charts it is found that the stock has a strong support at Rs.13.5; the higher bottom being made at Rs.14.20. The fast Stochastic and Bollinger bands are in buy mode. One can buy the scrip at the CMP of Rs.14.54 for a target of Rs.21 in the short term. In the medium to long term, the scrip can rise to Rs.55-Rs.60. Hence buy this scrip in all declines.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Kamanwala Housing Construction - Small Cap Real Estate Stock To Buy

2009-11-25T13:16:00.005+05:30

Kamanwala Housing Construction Limited (KHCL) is a company with a 20-year track record. They are based at Mumbai, the commercial capital of India. Kamanwala have 12 ongoing projects spread across the prime location of Mumbai like central and western Mumbai – Bandra Kurla Complex, Andheri, Santa Cruz, Malad and Versova.
Mumbai’s Filmistan studio is owned in partnership by Kamanwala and they are coming up with development of this 7 lakh sq ft of land to a shopping mall. Kamanwala has entered into joint venture with M/s. Prajay Engineers & others to construct at Patancheru, Hyderabad. The work has already began.
Kamanwala stock is a dividend paying company. They also gave bonus shares last year.
Big investors who are buying stocks of Kamalwala constructions:

=> Mavi investment’s Nirmal Kotecha of Pyramid Samira fame is buying this stock

=> Nisha Suman Jain is holding a major quantity of more than 10 % and in bulk deal it shows that she is increasing her stake at every stage. She is HNI who is director of Jainson Group of Industries, Build2 Last Infrastructure and a film producer of Maalik Ek.

=> Ashok Parmar, a HNI from Pune has invested in Kamanwala. He is known for acquiring a big stake in the company he invests in and according to news, he is also increasing his stake in Kamanwala. He has been in news for acquiring a high stake in Videocon and shooting its price up.

=> Religare holds a good amount of quantity and they are in the process of increasing it further.

Real estate sector and housing has started recovering from recession but it will take time. Mumbai real estate price has been shooting up for some time now and 2010 would observe the recovery in prices.
The company would achieve a turnover of Rs.1800 cr in 18 months( March 2011) due to completion of its projects which totals up to 20 lakh sq ft. Following this, the expected EPS for 2011 is Rs.150 - Rs.200. It is a small cap stock to buy and one can buy especially if it corrects from current CMP 66.50/-

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Latest update after Swiss Bank has agreed to disclose the funds&.

2009-11-21T19:21:00.002+05:30

Our Indians' Money - 70, 00,000 Crores Rupees In Swiss Bank

1) Yes, 70 lakhs crores rupees of India are lying in Switzerland banks. This is the highest amount lying outside any country, from amongst 180 countries of the world, as if India is the champion of Black Money.

2) Swiss Government has officially written to Indian Government that they are willing to inform the details of holders of 70 lakh crore rupees in their Banks, if Indian Government officially asks them.

3) On 22-5-08, this news has already been published in The Times of India and other Newspapers based on Swiss Government's official letter to Indian Government.

4) But the Indian Government has not sent any official enquiry to Switzerland for details of money which has been sent outside India between 1947 to 2008.. The opposition party is also equally not interested in doing so because most of the amount is owned by politicians and it is every Indian's money.

5) This money belongs to our country. From these funds we can repay 13 times of our country's foreign debt. The interest alone can take care of the Centers yearly budget. People need not pay any taxes and we can pay Rs. 1 lakh to each of 45 crore poor families.

6) Let us imagine, if Swiss Bank is holding Rs. 70 lakh Crores, then how much money is lying in other 69 Banks? How much they have deprived the Indian people? Just think, if the Account holder dies, the bank becomes the owner of the funds in his account.

7) Are these people totally ignorant about the philosophy of Karma? What will this ill-gotten wealth do to them and their families when they own/use such money, generated out of corruption and exploitation?

8) Indian people have read and have known about these facts. But the helpless people have neither time nor inclination to do anything in the matter. This is like "a new freedom struggle" and we will have to fight this.

9) This money is the result of our sweat and blood.. The wealth generated and earned after putting in lots of mental and physical efforts by Indian people must be brought back to our country.

Mid-day Multimedia - Stock Analysis & Recommendation

2009-11-21T19:13:00.002+05:30

Multimedia Limited operates as a media company in India. It owns and operates various community newspapers, including Mid Day and Sunday Mid Day for English readers, Gujarati Mid Day, and Urdu daily Inquilab. The company also operates Radio One 94.3 FM with stations at Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, and Pune.
In addition, it engages in outdoor advertising business. Mid-Day Multimedia Limited is based in Mumbai, India. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, an iconic investor in Indian stock markets pocketed around 5% stake in the counter at 40 odd rs. Sensex moved five times since then, many scrips became huge wealth creators, people made fortune but mid-day never moved.
Market Cap 127.07

* EPS (TTM) 0.63

* P/E 38.17

* P/C 29.69

* Book Value 30.60

* Price/Book 0.79

Div(%) 0.00

Div Yield(%) -

Market Lot 1.00

Face Value 10.00

Industry P/E 32.30
The stock is trading at higher P/E levels but it is available below it's book value which is indication of a value stock.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is holding the stock even now which shows his confidence and conviction in the company. Media sector is a sun rising sector with immense potential and opportunities. With RJ still backing it I feel mid day is a stock to buy which has little downside from around 20/- levels but can be a multi bagger in long run.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

MY FINANCIAL GURU ;Rakesh Jhunjhunwala On How To Buy Stocks

2009-11-19T12:49:00.001+05:30

Excerpts of interview of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala which every investor must read, were published on moneycontrol.com. I am reproducing it here for benefit of fellow investors.
If you’re a proponent of value investing, which involves buying stocks that offer value when they’re cheap and holding on to them till they achieve their potential — Warren Buffet style — here are tips from India’s own Buffet, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, that you may use.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s advice to investors is not to look for companies that would give profits but understand factors that help in creating profits. “Don’t emphasise too much on analysis of profits,” he says. “Profits are created due to various stages of circumstances. I always look at how large is the opportunity for that business in the sector.”
He recalls how he bought Praj Industries, a bio-ethanol company that gave him large returns. “When I bought Praj, we thought there would be a humongous demand for ethanol. The opportunity was huge but it was not recognized.”
IT bellwether Infosys, he said, benefited because of the internet revolution. “Nobody knew about Infosys in 1993 but Infosys could become Infosys because the opportunity for the internet went through the roof.”

“When opportunities come, they can come through technology, marketing, brands, value protections, capital, etc. You need to be able to spot those.”
— “Then I look at scalability of a particular company that I choose in a sector,” Jhunjhunwala says. “A friend of mine asked me: should I invest in a small cap or largecap? I said we must invest in the smallcaps, which will be the largecaps. The biggest challenge of investing is that you should recognise whether organization has the ability to scale.”
Jhunjhunwala says he makes an investing decision by understanding how a company’s profits may grow in the next four-five years, and by that account, its price-to-earnings and valuation. “If I succeed in making the right call, then after four-five years, I do a proper re-examination of the business model and accordingly reallocate capital because the business model can undergo change. Intense competition could emerge in that sector,” he says. “This is when I examine the earlier opinion I had made when I first bought, whether those assumptions still were valid.”
— How should you spot a good company? “You can have an idea by looking at companies’ capital raising. Are they distributing profits, are they using the surpluses in the right manner,” he says. “For me, quarters don’t matter. There can be always be an aberration in one quarter when the company has less profits. You should examine the reason for it and whether it can revert back on its growth.”
— Choices of asset classes is important too, says Jhunjhunwala. “If you bought gold in 1970 and sold it in 1980. you bought the Nikkei Index in 1980 and sold it in 1989 and then bought the Nasdaq [till before the dotcom bust], you would have made 33% compounded returns in three decades,” he says. “Warren Buffet rode the entire wave of those different asset classes.”
— “Value investing is relevant in all circumstances. But thought processes and principles are dynamic and not static. Be open to change,” he says.

— Don’t get carried away short term market trends, he says. “In 1999, people used to buy Himachal Futuristic, Global Tele, Pentasoft, I used to buy Shipping Corporation and Bharat Electronics because I saw long-term value,” he adds. “Never get carried away by aberrations, recognize and respect them but do remember that the market corrects its aberration though it takes time.”

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Scripscan:Rama Pulp & Papers Ltd-----currently quoting at compelling valuations

2009-11-17T17:38:00.002+05:30

Scripscan:Rama Pulp & Papers Ltd@21

Code:502587
Story:Rama Pulp & Papers Limited (RPPL) is a certified ISO 9001-2000 Company, engaged in manufacturing various types of papers mainly cultural and speciality grades. RPPL has firmly positioned itself among prominent paper manufacturing groups based in India.Rama Pulp and paper is a mid sized player in the Indian paper industry. The company currently operates with a capacity of 21,000 tpa with the capability to manufacture various paper varieties like writing-printing and carbon base paper, poster and wrapping paper,napken grade tissue paper etc. RPPL is expanding its capacity to 30,000 MTs. p.a. The company has a strong distribution network that enables it to market its products in various regions.Today RPPL has grown from strength to strength with its diversified product mix andstrategic marketing plan. With further expansion programs on hand, RPPL is now looking ahead to meet the emerging challenges both in domestic as well as overseas market.Keeping in view to take the company to the next level, company is planning to acquire an existing Industrial Chemical Unit to produce various industrial grades of chemicals, especially Sulfonated products like Sulfur Dioxide, Sulfur Trioxide etc.This new venture will give the company a new lease of life.As the paper industry requires lot of steam and power, the high pressure steam being vented out of the manufacturing process of these chemicals can be used for running the steam based power plant and then the extracted steam will be used for manufacturing of paper. Hence, the paper mill will self sufficient for its requirement of energy like steam and power. The will make the company very high on its bottom line.RPPL has a strong product mix that would enable it to cater to the demands of various customer segments. The new value added products introduced by the company are well accepted by the dealers as well as the end users, which ultimately gave a forward thrust to the company to emerge as a key player in this segment. The Carbon base paper being manufactured by the company has a market share of more than 50%, which places the company among the top players in this segment.The company is exporting its products to a very reputed chain of departmental stores like WALLMART and its specialty grade paper is very well accepted globally.The demand of paper as a whole is in a growing spree. The demand of paper is directly linked to the literacy of a particular country and in India, with implementation of educational policy, the literacy rate is growing and paper consumption is also in upward. Therefore, a steady growth in the demand of paper, especially writing printing,newsprint etc., is expected.RPPL is expected to register robust growth in revenues and earnings going forward. It is currently quoting at compelling valuations of 1.8x and 1.6x FY11E and FY12E earnings. Capacity expansion and growing demand for paper from various segments like education, industrial and specialty, in addition to its inorganic growth in Sulfonated chemicals will drive revenue and earnings growth for RPPL. The stock has potential to deliver handsome returns to the investors over a period of next one year. Investors can enter into the stock at current level considering the huge growth potential, which would enable investors to earn a healthy return on their investment.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Cox and Kings (India) — IPO: Invest

2009-11-16T17:09:00.002+05:30

Investments with a long-term perspective can be considered in the initial public offering of the global tour operator Cox and Kings (C&K). The company’s strong brand image, wide geographical reach — both within the country and across major global markets — synergies of operations between its various subsidiaries and the economies of scale it thus enjoys are positives to the offer.
Despite last year’s declining trends in the global travel and tourism space, C&K managed to not just grow it revenues but also improve its operating margin and profits. C&K’s strong domestic market position helped by improving discretionary spends by Indian consumers and its newly acquired presence in high potential markets of the US and Australia offers it bright growth prospects.
The highly fragmented domestic travel market, with few organised tour operators, also leaves sufficient scope for market share gains. The valuation, though a tad stiff given the current market conditions, is at a discount to that of Mahindra Holidays and Resorts (29 times its likely FY10 per share earnings).
The offer price of Rs 316-330 discounts the C&K’s likely FY-10 per share earnings by 22-23 times on post-offer equity base. The company’s superior growth rates, high operating margin in this business and the likely scarcity premium for the business do offer room for premium valuations.
Business prospects

The company’s domestic business straddles leisure travel, corporate travel, forex and visa processing. While it designs packages for both individuals and groups for their domestic and international travel-tagged outbound travel, it also offers destination management and ground handling services for foreign tourists visiting India.
C&K has also built a web of subsidiaries that complement each other’s business offerings. For instance, while on the one hand, its overseas presence through its subsidiaries help attract business for the domestic inbound business, on the other, it also helps keep a check on service levels and costs.
Similarly, its UK subsidiary, ETN, that does destination management for European sites stands to gain from its acquisitions in Australia and the US, both of which enjoy a high outbound travel volume to Europe. The high synergies and travel volumes afford the company better bargaining power with airlines and hotels, in turn, helping it competitively price its products and services.
Other ventures such as Maharaja Express, a luxury train to be launched in January 2010 in collaboration with IRCTC and visa-processing business for which it has received approvals from six countries, also offer long-term growth potential.
Marketing presence

On the whole, C&K has presence in 19 countries. In India, which made up more than half its overall revenues last year, the company has 255 points of presence covering 164 locations through a mix of owned and franchised sales shops, general sales agents and preferred sales agents.
The company, may need toimprove its reach in order to keep competition at bay. Its franchise distribution model holds potential in this regard. Not only does it offer a cheaper expansion mode, it may also help convert potential competitors into partners; the established client relationships of converts offering an added advantage.
C&K may also have to fight with vacation ownership companies for consumers’ wallet share. In that, however, tour operators appear relatively better placed as besides being asset light, they offer a wider basket of travel destinations.
Results and IPO proceeds

Over the last three years, C&K has grown its revenues and profits at a compounded annual growth rate of about 66 per cent and 80 per cent, respectively. In the same period, it managed to expand its operating profit margin by 10 percentage points to 42 per cent. Attributable mainly to increasing interest burden, the company’s NPM fell to 22 per cent from 28 per cent. With C&K seeking to use a portion of the IPO proceeds (Rs 129.6 crore) to repay loans, its interest outgo can be expected to come down significantly. C&K also plans to earmark IPO proceeds for acquisitions (Rs 150 crore), invest in overseas subsidiaries and upgrade corporate office.
Offer Details

The company seeks to raise Rs 584-610 crore from the issue, which also comprises an offer for sale of 3,046,640 equity shares by Lehman Brothers Opportunity Ltd, Deutsche Securities Mauritius Ltd and Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana.
The offer is open from November 18-20.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

LEARNING SECTION-----The cognitive process of acquiring skill

2009-11-14T14:10:00.001+05:30

In his wonderful book, Pit Bull , Marty Schwartz tells several stories of the times he lost money because his ego got in the way. In the end he has this to say about ego: "I've said it before, and I'm going to say it again, because it cannot be overemphasized: the most important change in my trading career occurred when I learned to DIVORCE MY EGO FROM THE TRADE. Trading is a psychological game. Most people think that they're playing against the market, but the market doesn't care. You're really playing against yourself. You have to stop trying to will things to happen in order to prove that you're right. Listen only to what the market is telling you now. Forget what you thought it was telling you five minutes ago. The sole objective of trading is not to prove you're right, but to hear the cash register ring

When u are Getting Free calls with accuracy of more then 80% +.....Sometime our stock fails...but then we give stop & resistance levels too.

Always remember...no force or single person can move stock.Its a game of mass psychology.We look at chart ,collect information and just spread

it .......free of cost.

Always Remember :Never pay money to anybody ..who is asking for it.Just ask any Analyst (TV ,Media ,Print or Website wale Analyst ko pucho............What is their success ratio in Day trading???A Million $ Question ...Doing Bla-Bla on TV ,writing on web is very easy......but while u trade .....u are playing with live wire

wish u happy trading to all of u.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Pick of the Week

2009-11-14T12:06:00.001+05:30

Geodesic Ltd

BSE Code: 503699

CMP: Rs.99.55

Face Value: Rs.2

52-Week High/Low: Rs.158.65/ Rs.38.50

Price/Book: 1.50

P/E: 4.99

EPS: Rs.19.94

Dividend Yield: 1.61%

Introduction: Geodesic Ltd established inthe year 1999, operates in a niche area of developing various innovative products in the information, communication and entertainment space. Geodesic's product t-list is versatile and all-encompassing when it comes to offering choice of communication and collaboration solutions to its users, whether it is the inherently simple hand-held Simputer to web-based mobile & wireless applications to the intricately complex Spyder applications.

Geodesic's mix of innovative products and high performance solutions has driven the company to profit right from its first year. Focusing its inventive capabilities across all aspects of communication and collaboration the company is widely recognized for its pioneering universal instant messaging system.

Geodesic is all set to contribute significantly to the wave of Convergence by launching innovative world class products such as the Geodesic IP phone that operates across different platforms of landlines, mobile phones & desktops/laptops that will work on all prevailing internet connections and will help users save 75-80 % on long distance calls.

Geodesic's talented staff of more than 400 employees ensures innovation, utility and ease of use. The combination of a highly competent team and state-of-the-art tools enhance the development of future-proof, useful business solutions.

Geodesic has offices in UK, Sweden, Mauritius, Germany and Hong Kong. It provides solutions and services to the following segments:

• Enterprise---SMB, BFSI, Large Business, System Integrators, Govt. etc.

• Portals and Publishers

• Handset manufacturers and Telecom Operators

• Retail Business.

Its products include a communication stack (Email/IM/ VOIP/ SMS), Customer Alignment and Relationship management and the entertainment stack including Internet Radio. Geodesic Ltd also builds E-governance solutions based on its GeoAmida (Geodesic’s Hand held Computer).

Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 22.74 % while the general public holds 77.26% of the shares of the company.

Shareholding belonging to the category

"Public" and holding more than 1% of the Total No.of Shares

Sl. No. Name of the Shareholder No. of Shares Shares as % of Total No. of Shares

1 Sloane Robinson Llp A/C Sr Global (Mauritius Class C -International) 6,941,726 7.53

2 Genesis Indian Investment Company Ltd General Sub Fund 5,636,742 6.11

3 Tree Line Asia Master Fund (Singapore) Pte Ltd 5,576,957 6.05

4 Deutsche Secuririies Mauritius Ltd 3,838,171 4.16

5 Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc A/C Morgan Stanley India Investment Fund Inc 955,459 1.04

6 Indea Capital PTE Ltd A/C Indea Absolute Return Fund 1,000,000 1.08

7 Carlson Fund Equity - Asian Small Cap 3,050,000 3.31

8 Genesis Asset Managers Llp A/C Smaller Companies Portfolio Of The Genesis Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund Ltd. 2,431,603 2.64

9 Sloane Robinson Llp A/C Sr Global (Mauritius) Ltd (Class B Asia) 2,493,168 2.70

10 College Retirement Equities Fund - Global Equity Account 1,971,502 2.14

11 Banque Degroof Laxembourg Sa A/C Asia Pacific Performance Sicav 1,436,595 1.56

12 Shinsei Uti India Fund (Mauritius) Ltd 1,746,892 1.89

13 Ward Ferry Management Limited A/C Wf Asian Smaller Companies Fund Ltd. 2,457,000 2.66

14 College Retirement Equities Fund - Stock Account 1,312,500 1.42

15 Ward Ferry Management Limited A/C Wf India Reconnaissance Fund Ltd 1,183,000 1.28

16 Fidelity Funds - Pacific Fund 924,441 1.00

17 Payash Securities Pvt Ltd 1,194,727 1.30

Total 44,150,483 47.88

Financials: Geodesic Ltd reported revenue of Rs.154.4 Cr in Q2FY10, which is flat as compared to the same quarter previous year. It has managed to report a marginal rise in revenues despite revising its licensing prices downwards for the enterprise segment. Geodesic issued fewer licenses of Mundu IM and Radio to the OEM/ODM segment owing to the drop in smart phone shipments.

Its net profit for the 2nd quarter, FY10 declined by 24% at Rs.57.03 Cr as compared to the quarter ended Sept 30, 2008. The EPS for Q2FY10 came out to be Rs.6.18 as against Rs.8.12 in the same period previous year. Dividend at 40% (Re.0.80 per share) on the face value of equity share is declared by the shareholders in the AGM held on 29-09-09 and paid on 20-10-09.

Triggers:

• Geodesic's mix of innovative products and high performance solutions has driven the company to profit right from its first year. Company was awarded the Inaugural Red Herring Small Cap 100 award and is one of the only Indian companies to be included in the Red Herring Small Cap 100 list. Geodesic is a traded on India's major Stock Exchanges, the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE).

• The Company is focusing its inventive capabilities across all aspects of communication and collaboration. Their areas of specialty include RDBMS, networking applications, web technologies (including interface designing and Interactivity) and security protocols. Company is widely recognized for its pioneering universal instant messaging system (www.mundu.com). The Mundu products successfully combine AIM, Google Talk, ICQ, MSN, Mundu and Yahoo with deep content collaboration across the Internet, wireless devices and platforms.

• All Geodesic products are complimentary to each other. Each product can be used independently but also seamlessly integrates with all other products. Geodesic customers can begin with a single product that fulfills their requirements and as their requirements change or increase; additional products from the Geodesic suite can easily be incorporated. Geodesic was the first in the world to introduce an 'Information Slider' that changed the way people shared and collaborated information.

• The Mundu SMS launched its International SMS Service in India, Australia, Singapore, Philippines, South Africa, UAE, and UK. Mundu SMS will reach out to more than 100 countries during the financial year.

• It announced plans to launch Filmorbit—a portal dedicated to the India Entertainment and Media industry in India. The portal would use Mundu Entertainment stake as a means to deliver deep interlinked content. Moreover, Mundu Radio has been rated as one of the top 10 popular applications on the Nokia OVI store.

• Forbes Magazine listed Geodesic in the top 200 under a billion companies. The company signed a deal with Entel PCS, Chile’s largest mobile operator to provide windows live instant messaging service to its mobile subscribers.

• A UK based Financial Service Company acting as an exchange for C2C, C2B and B2B multi-currency transaction signed a trial order for the company’s GeoAmida hand held device.

• The company signed deals with Orissa Capital Bank B S C, Bahrain, Business India Group and a major Korean Investment Bank to provide financial service solutions including CRM and integrated communications over web.

• During the last quarter the Chandamama launched interactive children friendly portals in Kannada, Marathi, Telegu, Tamil and Hindi, with a host of features, making browsing exciting and enjoyable for readers.

Valuation and Chart Check:

The Geodesic Ltd’s business model is based on a recurring revenue stream. The nature of the products and the business promotes returning customers and all Geodesic products are created with this model in mind.

The charts however are not giving an immediate buy signal, but the same cannot be denied in the middle of the week. Both the slow and fast oscillators are highly oversold and a bounce can be expected at any time. A bounce from the temporary bottom formed should be used to accumulate. A short term target of Rs.141 cannot be ruled out in the next 3 to 4 months time frame. The medium to long term investors should buy the scrip with a SL of Rs.94.50

Note: The stock was recommended to the Paid Groups ( on the last Sunday (8th November, 2009).

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Accumulate rating on Gateway Distriparks with a target price of Rs 146.

2009-11-11T15:43:00.002+05:30

A report released on November 10 said: "Gateway Rail Freight (GRFL) is raising Rs3bn through the issue of Compulsorily Convertible Preference Shares (CCPS) to Blackstone, which on conversion, will entitle Blackstone to acquire between 37.27% and 49.9% of the share capital of GRFL. The deal incorporates a call and put option and Blackstone's stake in GRFL is linked to the company's ability to achieve the set EBITDA targets.
"The much needed infusion of funds will enable GRFL to scale-up its rake capacity, from the existing 18 rakes to 25-30 rakes. This is positive for Gateway Distriparks’ (GDL) shareholders as with the company's CFS business under pressure, the early breakeven in the rail business will provide a fillip. Assuming Blackstone's stake in GRFL at the midpoint of the range (43.5%), its cost price per share will be Rs 19.5; this is at 38% premium to the post-issue BV of GRFL and 95% premium to GDL's cost price in GRFL.
"Since the deal is a structured one, with protection and broad representation available to Blackstone, it is difficult to extrapolate into the deal and ascribe an exact valuation to GRFL. However, very broadly, assuming Blackstone's stake at 37.7%, the value attributable to GDL is Rs4.9bn, while with Blackstone's stake at 49.9%, the value accruing to GDL stands at Rs3bn. This is slightly below the expectation that was built-in to the stock.
"Although the valuation is slightly below market expectations, in our opinion, the money was much needed to carry out its expansion plans. Besides, over the long-term, we believe that this fund raising will clearly be positive for the company as it will help the company to grow. We are valuing the CFS and the cold chain business at PER of 12x FY11 which gives us a value of Rs 118/share. Further, we are valuing the rail business at P/B of 1.25, with a 10% holding company discount. This translates to Rs 28/share assuming Blackstone's stake at a midpoint of 43.5%, thereby, GDL's stake at 56.5%. We are positive on the stock from a long-term point of view and advise investor to accumulate the stock on dips. We maintain ‘Accumulate’ on the stock, with a price target of Rs 146." CMP=125.50/-

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

2009-11-10T20:54:00.001+05:30

Scripscan:GTL Ltd

cmp:345

Code:500160
Story:GTL Limited provides network services for telecom services providers and technology providers. It offers network planning and design services, such as RF planning and design, RF optimization, transmission planning, benchmarking and auditing, in-building solutions, and virtual planning and optimization; and network deployment services, including site/construction engineering, management services, site implementation, acceptance services, site documentation, and validation services. The company also provides network operations and maintenance services that comprise network monitoring and operations, network field maintenance, technical support and process management, logistics and vendor management, and transition management; and infrastructure management services, such as program management, site expansion management, shareability assessment, documentation management, disaster recovery management, and site acquisition management. In addition, it offers energy management services, including energy audits of telecom infrastructure, process improvements and best practices, technology upgradation, and alternate sources of energy; and professional services in the areas of RF engineering, NSS engineering, Vas and billing, 2G and 3G access, microwave and optical transmission networks, and network operations and maintenance. It has operations in the United States, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. The company has strategic alliance with Ericsson UK to serve managed network infrastructure services market in the United Kingdom.We maintain our FY10E revenue and EBIDTA estimates, but lower our PATestimates by 4% due to increase in interest expenses. We revise our FY10E EPS to Rs16.8 (from Rs17.6 earlier)and introduce FY11E EPS at Rs 20/share. We revise our SOTP based target price to Rs 325/ share based on 15x FY11E EPS of Rs20 and value of holding in GTL Infra at Rs50/ share. Domestic order deferrals and higher working capital cycle remain concerns on the growthand cash flows of the company.The downside to the stock price could be limited due to the likely large order wins from BSNL tender.I maintain a BUY rating on it.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Scripscan:Bhagwati Banquets & Hotels Ltd ; To me its a great buy at the present levels

2009-11-07T16:58:00.001+05:30

Cmp:41

Target:49
Duration:3-5 months

Traded in:Nse-Bse
Business contributor:Bhagwati Banquets derives revenues from three major sources.Presently more than 1/3rd of its revenues comes from the banquet facility, 25% comes from club management and the rest from outdoor catering. The prime is the Banquets Hall facility and the company has also got four halls in Ahmedabad.BHagwati has been doing club management for three major clubs namely Rajpath Club, Karnavati Club, GCAC and the revolving restaurant called Patang".As these are seasonal businesses, if one of the businesses gets affected, the other two businesses can support them.The company has 1,000 people, consisting of 10 master chefs and a catering staff of 650 for Ahmedabad and 45 for Surat.
Company vision:The company has set a target to set up 5-star hotels in Ahmedabad,Jaipur,Hyderabad,Lucknow and Mumbai in the coming 10-12 years.It is also evaluating several proposals to acquire property for its new hotel at Ahmedabad. These company dreams really big and if it can acheive its desires then Bhagwati banquets can just become one of the scrips to watch out for in the days to come.
A catering player to boost your wealth:You have been invited to a wedding ceremony or a party or say in any occasion and yup our "Bhagwati banquets" is there to satiate all your desires but at an expense.It charges from Rs 350 to Rs 900 a meal and provides personalized service.A minimum order has to be for 300 people (off-season) and 500 in season, resulting in revenue ranging from Rs 1 lakhs--4.5 lakhs on each order.It would be prudent to note that the catering business generates free cash, as it receives payments in cash and obtains credit from its suppliers. Hence, the working capital required is low.What a satisfaction folks-Just consider,You are the owner of the company and your freind has hired your company for all the meal and party arrangements.
5-star hotel at Surat:The company has setting up a 5-star hotel at Surat with 65,000 square feet (two halls of 32,500 square feet each) a convention and banqueting hall to accommodate at Least 3,000 people at a time for any event.This hotel has 100 rooms (deluxe, suites and a presidential suite).It has two large banquet halls, which can be partitioned into smatter halls as required, to accommodate at Least 3,000 people.The hotel also has a business center with boardroom, conference rooms, world-class spa, pub, discotheque, etc.The hotel is all ready and would start its operations from these november itself.It expects Rs 50 crores in revenue and Rs 15 crs in operating profit from the Surat hotel in the first year of operation.The typical room rate in Ahmedabad is Rs 5,000 per day and average occupancy is 75-80%.
Wow,so much,anything else its planning:-Watch out...........
1)It has already commenced catering services in Mumbai,rajkot etc
2)It has futher plans to enter into tie-ups with clubs for providing its services.
3)It plans to serve companies and MNCs, BPO centres, shopping malls, cinema halls, etc. catering for them and providing food packs.
4)The company plans to develop a separate club adjoining the surat hotel,resulting in additional revenues and thus an increase in profits.
Facts to comfort:Its global india and companies having unique business models gave tremendous capital appreciation in the last few years.Few of the notable examples being Educomp,aurion pro,mic tech,Opto circuits,country club and many more.Bhagwati is a tremendously agggresive company and it has got a monopolistic business with high operating profit margin ratio.
Whats most inspiring is the main promoter of the company and the largest stake holder,Mr Narendra somani-one of the finest vision oriented man bought nearly 13 lakh 50 thousand shares of his own company from open market purchases in the last 8-9quarters.
Conclusion:The catering service has done well in the past five years. The number of meals supplied per day has jumped from 200/300 in FY03 to 1,500/2,000 in FY07.At the CMP of Rs 39,the stock trades at 3x FY11E EPS of Rs 13.A great business model backed by a very strong and ambitious pedigree,a market leader with hardly any competition,A pure play on indian consumption and growth story,anything else is required to ventitale for inspiring?To me its a great buy at the present levels

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

(100% authentic news from sources). It is a multi-bagger in the making...

2009-11-06T20:09:00.001+05:30

Sanguine Media Services Ltd almost hit the buyer freeze today with good volumes, before cooling down a bit. There are some good news coming in the company--hence accumulate in bulk. The book value of the scrip is around Rs.22. The bad days are over for the company. The company has struck contracts with a division of the Sun TV Network (100% authentic news from sources). Hence, I have now increased my target to Rs.18--19, with the next 6 to 9 months time frame. It is a multi-bagger in the making...

ITL Industries Ltd

2009-11-05T13:20:00.003+05:30

BSE Code: 522183

CMP: Rs.32

Market Cap: Rs.9.64 Cr

EPS: Rs.4.69

P/E: 6.24

Industry P/E: 17

Dividend yield: 3.42%

Introduction: ITL Industries Ltd. was established in 1986, as a commercial Tool Room to cater to the needs of local industries. Engineering industry in India then, was still in nascent stage and demand for Metal Sawing Machines was growing rapidly. ITL emerged as the sole manufacturer of India's first cent percent indigenously designed and developed High Speed Double Column Band Saw Machine to meet the growing demand.

Today ITL offers 60 different models of Bandsaw machine ranging from 100 mm to 1500 mm cutting capacity with manual, semi automatic, automatic and fourth generation CNC machine. In 1996, ITL joined hands with KASTO Maschinenfabrik GmbH Germany to manufacture state-of-the-art High Speed Power Hacksawing Machines in India, with a buy back arrangement. Today ITL manufacture's three models of Kasto Sawing Machines with cutting capacities 250 mm, 280 mm. and 400 mm. dia. in India as per Kasto Technology.

ITL has been the pioneer in introducing India’s first double column type metal cutting machine in the year 1990 and since then, ITL has supplied more than 2000 machines across the country and global markets.

Products:

Manufacturers, Traders & Exporters of Metal High Speed Sawing Machine. - High Speed Double Column Band Saw Machine - Blades - Bandsaw - Circular Sawing Machine - Tube/Pipe Manufacturing Machine -Power Hacksaw Machines - Special Purpose Machines - Generator Stator Bar Press - Power Packs -Micromist
Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 45.15%, while the general public holds 54.87% of the shares of the company.

Financials: For Q2FY10, the total income of the company came out to be Rs.14.35 Cr as against Rs.5.99 Cr in the same period previous year. Even after higher Depreciation, Interest & Finance charges and Provisions for taxation, the net profit of the company for Q2FY10, came out to be Rs.8.76 Cr as against
Rs.4.2 Cr in the same period previous year on a very small equity capital of Rs.3.25 Cr.
The EPS of the company for Q2FY10 came out to be Rs.2.69 as against Rs.1.29 in the same period previous year.
Triggers:

• The engineering industry in India is on an upswing on the back of huge demand from the construction, infrastructure and capital goods sector. This has resulted in an increase in the demand for metal cutting machines.

• ITL Industries Ltd (ITL) is well placed to take advantage of this opportunity as it is a leader in high speed sawing technology and is in the process of establishing itself in the domestic and global markets as an innovative and reliable "Cutting solution provider

• ITL has a wide product range in metal cutting solutions. The company offers 60 different models of brand saw machines ranging from 100 MM TO 1,500 MM cutting capacity with Manual, Semi Automatic, Automatic and fourth generation CNC machines. On the back of its technical tie up with a German company, ITL manufactures 3 models of Kato Sawing machines with cutting capacities of 250 MM and 400 MM diameter in India as per KLasto technology.

• The domestic demand as compared to the last year has improved in the current year. The present level of Turnover & Orders for Machine Manufacturing Division & Hydraulics Division has surpassed last year’s total turnover. The company has a good order book position.

• In some new products for Tube & Pipe Manufacturing Company, High Speed Circular Sawing Machines, ITL has captured a reasonable market size. More and more technological advancement and up-gradation of latest technology will create an opportunity to penetrate into new products liner global market in near future.

• In current year the Company is confident of growing much faster in comparison to economy capital goods industry. Looking to the present level of Orders and Enquires for Manufacturing Division i.e. Bandsaw and Tube & Pipe Manufacturing equipment it is seen that they are showing good signs of recovery. ITL's outlook on over-seas markets and domestic market are positive

on account of its strength o n cutting edge technology, cost and effective after sales services.

• The Company is falling under the capital goods industry, the growth of which is determined by overall growth of the Industry. An overall concern is pertaining to the pressure on the profitability. However, ITL has taken all measures to reduce the Direct and Indirect cost.

During the current year, the Tube and Pipe Manufacturing Division is showing excellent growth in orders and inquiry due the overall growth of Industry. The advancement of technology and strategic positioning of products is expected to give better results in the days to come.

Conclusion: According to the charts, the stock should only be bought above Rs.31, in any upmove.

Cords Cable Industries Ltd

2009-11-04T19:08:00.001+05:30

BSE Code: 532941

CMP: Rs.38

Book Value: Rs.73.26

EPS: Rs.4.7

Dividend Yield: 2.21%

Price/Book: 0.89

Market Cap: Rs.54.57

P/E:10.16

Industry P/E: 11.78

Sector: Power Cable

Introduction: Cords Cable Industries Ltd (CCIL) was established in 1987 by a group of industry professionals with an objective of catering to a growing requirement for high quality customized cables.

With it’s headquarter in New Delhi, it manufactures Instrumentation cables, Control cables, Power cables besides special cables for electrical connectivity requirements, mainly for Industry. The Company manufactures cables up to 1.1 kilovolt for applications including industrial, utility and buildings. It caters to industries such as power, steel, cement, fertilizers and chemicals, and refinery/petroleum. The Company’s products include low-tension control cables (up to 1.1 kilovolt), low-tension power cables (up to 1.1 kilovolt), instrumentation cables, signal and data cables, thermocouple extension/compensating cables, panel wires/house hold wires/flexible cables, and specialty cables.

In January 2008, the Company came out with an IPO and on 13th February 2008 got listed on Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange of India.

In a significant development in 2008, Cords Cable Industries Limited became the only Cable manufacturer in the Asia-Pacific region to be listed by Forbes Magazine in its “Asia's 200 Best Companies under a Billion List.” It is now the biggest instrumentation cable maker in India.

Shareholding Pattern: According to the latest shareholding pattern, the promoters hold a controlling stake of 58.48% while the general public holds 41.52% of the shares of the company.

Financials: For FY09, the total sales of the company increased to Rs.222.8 Cr as against Rs.170.85 Cr in the same period previous year. However due to higher expenditure, interest and depreciation, the net profit of the company suffered. For FY09, the net profit of the company dipped to Rs.7.13 Cr as against Rs.13.8 Cr in the same period previous year, on a small equity base of Rs.11.43 Cr. The EPS of the company for FY09 dipped to Rs.6.24 as against Rs.16.81 in the same period previous year. The net and operating profit margin of the company also dipped considerably on Y-o-Y basis, due to slowing down of the world economy. The poor FY09 results considering Y-o-Y basis is mainly due to Q4FY09 results, which were abysmal and were much below expectations.

For Q1FY10, the total sales of the company though remained flat on Y-o-Y basis but the net profit dipped Y-o-Y basis. However the net profit of the company for Q1FY10, sequentially speaking was superb, which is an indication of improvement of business environment in the coming days. For FY10, the total sales of the company came out to be Rs.359.74 Cr as against Rs.360.40 Cr in Q1FY09. The net profit of the company for Q1FY10 suffered due to higher interest and depreciation. The net profit of the company for Q1FY10 came out to be Rs.67.7 lakhs as against Rs.2.44 Cr in the same period previous

year. But the though the net and operating profit margins of the company dipped considerably on Y-o-Y basis but the good point is that they improved substantially speaking sequentially; which tells us indirectly that going forward the company would do well. This is primarily the fundamental basis of recommending this hidden gem in the Power Cable Sector.

Industry Outlook: At global level, India's growth story is so far impressive with GDP expected to grow at the rate of 6-6.5% in FY10. Infrastructure needs to grow at a similar level for sustaining this GDP growth. This infrastructure is undoubtedly dependent upon the manufacturers of cables in the Indian cables industry. This augurs well for the suppliers of power cables, instrumentation and other cables.

The key to sustaining India's growth rate during a global meltdown lies in developing India's infrastructure sector as mentioned earlier. Keeping this in mind, the government is targeting an investment of US$ 20.38 billion over the next two years in the infrastructure sector. The scheme proposed by government cannot be achieved without participation of Private sector. The government has asked the Infrastructure Investment Finance Company Ltd (IIFCL) to put together a corpus of over US$ 8.15 billion for this purpose. This is in addition to the US$ 320 billion that the government plans to invest for the up-gradation of ports, railroads, highways and airports over the next 15 years. Further, the core sector growth is back on track. The index for six core industries crude oil, petroleum refinery products, coal, electricity, cement and finished carbon steel has turned in a growth of 2.9 per cent in March 2009 over March last year.

Apart from the power cables, Indian cable manufacturers are producing technologically advanced specialty cables including instrumentation cables, process control cables, low voltage electrical power cables, rubber cables, control cables, etc. which are used by the space, oil, gas, petrochemicals, fertilizers, cement, steel, railways, medical, automotive, electronics and many other core sectors of the Indian economy. Hence any positive development in the economy is directly proportional to the company’s fundamentals, which is expected to improve substantially going forward.

Triggers:

• The decline in margins in FY09 and Q1FY10 was mainly due to the increased cost of raw material which happened on account of sharp fluctuation in price of commodities like Copper & Steel which constitute almost 80% of the raw materials for cables. Moreover, global recessionary trend has adversely affected the profits of the Company by comparatively increasing the cost of inputs and slowing the product demand in the market. CCIL booked the material against order at higher price but had to offer lower price to customer when prices declined.

This has resulted into higher raw material cost for CCIL. However with improved business environment for the company in the coming days, this is expected to ease out considerably.

• Company even in the tiring business environment maintained its dividend payout in FY09 at the rate of Re.1 per share which is same as in FY08.

• The year 2008-09 proved to be a very challenging year for Indian Industry. During the year the GDP of the country fell down to 6.7% compared to 8.5% in FY’08. Cable Industry was no exception to this domestic and global meltdown. Despite all the global and domestic challenges and sharp fluctuation in commodities like Copper & Steel which constitute almost 80% of the raw materials for Cables, Cords Cable Industries Ltd (CCIL) achieved a growth of 30% in sales over FY08. To face all these challenges CCIL further diversified its business model and has added 33 new clients to its existing client base, has started exporting its product to many new countries and has added 3 new business sectors.

• In an effort to make its business model more sustainable CCIL focused aggressively on export markets and as a result the company increased the share of exports to 16.1% as against 7% in FY'08. With rupee depreciation, the company is expected to get good impetus on its export revenues. CCIL is well poised for future growth with a well developed strategy in place and is on course for achieving its target to increase the share of its export sales to 25% in FY10.

• The cable industry in the past 16 months has undergone a massive slowdown both in domestic and global markets. However the turnaround has already taken place and there is a great potential for the cable industry not only for 100% capacity utilization but also to capture more market by expansion drive. Looking at the aforesaid scenario and great potential, the company is poised for expansion. The effective steps for expansion had already been taken by the company last year but due to overall slowdown in the economy, the expansion drive was put on hold. However, now in view of the improvement in the overall situation, the project is expected to be commissioned expeditiously and is likely to commence production by April 2010. Also, RIICO allotted an alternative piece of land for the project due to certain issues with the proper procurement of the previous piece of land. The new land is better located and more suitable for the project.

The cost over run as such is proposed to be met from internal accruals & borrowings. The company had already received machinery which CCIL installed in the existing facility and has already started producing.

• As of 31st Mar 2009 CCIL had an order book of Rs.103 Crs. The company is not facing any problem in order booking. The order booking is same quantity wise but the value of the order book is low due to the declining prices of the raw materials. The order book is expected to cross Rs.150 Cr by Q4FY10.

Chart Check and Conclusion: Going forward, with increased manufacturing capacity, focus on exports and addition of new products, CCIL is poised to wire a new growth story in the cable sector.

We can expect CCIL to report Net Revenue of Rs.265 Cr, EBIDTA of Rs.29.6 Cr, EBIDTA Margin of 11.2%, PAT of Rs.11.1 Cr and EPS of Rs.9.7-Rs.10, in FY10. At the estimated EPS of Rs.9.7—Rs.10 for FY 10 the stock could trade at Rs.110-120, in the next 9-12 months time frame. Moreover, considering CCIL’s reasonable order book position, focus on exports, pick up in demand and stable commodity prices we can safely assume that CCIL’s margin is likely to improve in the coming quarters.
This scrip is suitable for investors who do not want to take too much risk but want a healthy return after a couple of years.

Note: The stock was recommended to the Paid Group last week in the Sunday Report. The above are the excerpts from the original report sent to the Paid Groups.