Exide Industries Ltd (CMP: Rs.89.05): Basking on the Auto Sector boom:
Buy only in a correction....Book Profits now...
Exide Industries Ltd is expected to benefit from the better‐than‐expected pick‐up in the car sales (I have earlier mentioned about Refex Refrigerants Ltd on this issue). In the original equipment (OE) sector, demand is weak in the truck‐bus, tractor, and multi‐utility vehicle segments (Not so good news for the shareholders of Sicagen India Ltd).
However, the recent turnaround of the passenger car segment and a robust growth in sales of two‐wheelers will contribute to the sales growth of the company (Good news for the share holders of Refex Refrigerants Ltd). With a likely turnaround in the auto sector, Exide plans to spend around Rs.100 crore to create more capacity given that it is already using about 90 per cent of its facilities. Exide has facilities in Shyamnagar and Haldia in West Bengal, Hosur in Karnataka, Chinchwad and Taloja in Maharashtra and Bawal in Haryana. The company needs additional capacity to meet its demand from an increasing demand of both automotive and industrial batteries.
Exide controls 76 per cent of the automobile OE market. Sales of batteries are expected to grow by about 15 per cent in the current year due to strong demand from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).
Strong demand from the UPS & inverters segment from commercial establishments is also estimated to grow by 20 per cent leading to a much strong revenue growth.
Exide has also tied up with Thunder Sky of China for importing Lithium‐ion automotive batteries keeping in tune with the interest shown by domestic car‐makers to participate in the demonstrative electric car project during the Commonwealth Games 2010.
In any good correction buy around the support of Rs.63--Rs.65--Rs.80, for a target of Rs.110, in the next 6 months time frame.Disclosures: At the time of writing this article, author, his clients & dependent family members may have positions in the stocks mentioned above. The author, his firm, his clients or any of his dependent family members may make purchases or sale of the securities mentioned in blog Author may have positions in above stocks so have vested interest obviously in their going up or down as the case may be.
Disclosures: At the time of writing this article, author, his clients & dependent family members may have positions in the stocks mentioned above. The author, his firm, his clients or any of his dependent family members may make purchases or sale of the securities mentioned in blog Author may have positions in above stocks so have vested interest obviously in their going up or down as the case may be.
Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken
Monday, September 28, 2009
MY FAVOURATE STOCK
MY FAVOURATE STOCK
Refex Refrigerants Ltd: Some Thoughts:
1. Refex Refrigerants Ltd@32/- is the only player in the country which has the distinction of refilling and marketing hydrofluorocarbons, which is a non-ozone depleting, environmentally safe refrigerant developed to replace chloro-flouro-carbons in several air conditioning and refrigeration applications. Refex is also planning a big push of HFC gas cans for car air-conditioners. Refex earlier launched HFC gas in cans. All air-conditioned cars need to change gas once in 24 months. With this initiative the cost will come down by 50% for the car owner. Refex Refrigerants Ltd has applied for Carbon Credits and hopes to get the same from the international authorities. But there is an arugment here: It is well known that the companies like Guj Fluoro/Navin Fluorine being manufacturers of HFC can claim carbon credits however, since Refex just imports and packages them, there is a question mark regarding its approval of getting Carbon Credits, from International Authorities. However, its renewable energy initiatives could help it get the same without much hassle.
2. A couple of years back, Bennett, Coleman & Co (BCCL) inked an agreement to pick up around 3.5% stake in the equity capital of Chennai-based Refex Refrigerants. The company is in the process of building Refex as a national brand and BCCL can add tremendous value to its branding initiatives.
3. Poor offtake in Automobile and Consumer durable sectors contributed to the drop in business in 2008-09 and Q1FY10. However, with both these sectors picking up, the company is expected to do well going forward.
4. Today the current market for HFCs is about 34,000 tonne in the country. So after the implementation of the Montreal Protocol by January 2010, the shift will be to HFC-based business. So, definitely the market is big for this and undoubtly Refex Refrigerants Ltd with its expanded capacity by March, 2010, will be a major beneficiary.
5. Refrex plans to export hydro fluorocarbons or HFCs to developed markets like the US and Europe after importing it from China and Singapore. The company imports refrigerant gases in liquefied form, regasifies it and packages it in cans in India.
6. A couple of years abck the company received a special import licence for importing 2000 MT of HCFC-based refrigerants from DGFT. Sales to automobile companies would contribute about 40% to both topline and bottomline in FY10.
7. Clients of Refex Refrigerants Ltd, include Hyundai Motors, Tata Motors, Hindustan Motors, Reva Electric Car Company, sports car maker San Motors, Toyota Kirloskar, Godrej and Boyce, Blue Star, Carrier Aircon, and the like.
8. Television Eighteen India Ltd and Bennet Colomen & Company Ltd (BCCL) holds 1.78% and 2.5% stake in the company. This shows that the company has a good background. Moreover, its partnership with BCCL and TV18 for print and Television, will help it in its initiative of big brand building exericise.
9. At the current price of Rs.32.15, the dividend yield is a whooping 6.22%. Moreover, the company has decided to pay dividend during FY10 also. The market cap is only Rs.49.75 Cr for such a huge company. Moreover, market cap/sales is only 0.6 for FY09. If the company indeed achieves what they are aiming to do by 2010, the stock can turn out to be at least 6-7 bagger in just 18 months.
10. The company's renewable energy projects would be ready by December, 2009. Hence this is expected go give some cushion against the escalating interest cost. Its subsidiaries, Sherisha Technologies (S) Pte Ltd, Singapore and its step-down subsidiaries namely, Kaltech Engineering & Refrigeration Pte Ltd, Singapore and Global Refrigerants (S) Pte Ltd, are expected to contribute substantial parts to its revenue basket going forward. The pledging of the shares by the promoters is just a temporary arrangements and is expected to be released soon.
The stock of Refex Refrigerants Ltd should be purchased on all declines for a price target of Rs.150--Rs.170, in the next 18 months time frame.
Disclosures: At the time of writing this article, author, his clients & dependent family members may have positions in the stocks mentioned above. The author, his firm, his clients or any of his dependent family members may make purchases or sale of the securities mentioned in blog Author may have positions in above stocks so have vested interest obviously in their going up or down as the case may be.
Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken
Refex Refrigerants Ltd: Some Thoughts:
1. Refex Refrigerants Ltd@32/- is the only player in the country which has the distinction of refilling and marketing hydrofluorocarbons, which is a non-ozone depleting, environmentally safe refrigerant developed to replace chloro-flouro-carbons in several air conditioning and refrigeration applications. Refex is also planning a big push of HFC gas cans for car air-conditioners. Refex earlier launched HFC gas in cans. All air-conditioned cars need to change gas once in 24 months. With this initiative the cost will come down by 50% for the car owner. Refex Refrigerants Ltd has applied for Carbon Credits and hopes to get the same from the international authorities. But there is an arugment here: It is well known that the companies like Guj Fluoro/Navin Fluorine being manufacturers of HFC can claim carbon credits however, since Refex just imports and packages them, there is a question mark regarding its approval of getting Carbon Credits, from International Authorities. However, its renewable energy initiatives could help it get the same without much hassle.
2. A couple of years back, Bennett, Coleman & Co (BCCL) inked an agreement to pick up around 3.5% stake in the equity capital of Chennai-based Refex Refrigerants. The company is in the process of building Refex as a national brand and BCCL can add tremendous value to its branding initiatives.
3. Poor offtake in Automobile and Consumer durable sectors contributed to the drop in business in 2008-09 and Q1FY10. However, with both these sectors picking up, the company is expected to do well going forward.
4. Today the current market for HFCs is about 34,000 tonne in the country. So after the implementation of the Montreal Protocol by January 2010, the shift will be to HFC-based business. So, definitely the market is big for this and undoubtly Refex Refrigerants Ltd with its expanded capacity by March, 2010, will be a major beneficiary.
5. Refrex plans to export hydro fluorocarbons or HFCs to developed markets like the US and Europe after importing it from China and Singapore. The company imports refrigerant gases in liquefied form, regasifies it and packages it in cans in India.
6. A couple of years abck the company received a special import licence for importing 2000 MT of HCFC-based refrigerants from DGFT. Sales to automobile companies would contribute about 40% to both topline and bottomline in FY10.
7. Clients of Refex Refrigerants Ltd, include Hyundai Motors, Tata Motors, Hindustan Motors, Reva Electric Car Company, sports car maker San Motors, Toyota Kirloskar, Godrej and Boyce, Blue Star, Carrier Aircon, and the like.
8. Television Eighteen India Ltd and Bennet Colomen & Company Ltd (BCCL) holds 1.78% and 2.5% stake in the company. This shows that the company has a good background. Moreover, its partnership with BCCL and TV18 for print and Television, will help it in its initiative of big brand building exericise.
9. At the current price of Rs.32.15, the dividend yield is a whooping 6.22%. Moreover, the company has decided to pay dividend during FY10 also. The market cap is only Rs.49.75 Cr for such a huge company. Moreover, market cap/sales is only 0.6 for FY09. If the company indeed achieves what they are aiming to do by 2010, the stock can turn out to be at least 6-7 bagger in just 18 months.
10. The company's renewable energy projects would be ready by December, 2009. Hence this is expected go give some cushion against the escalating interest cost. Its subsidiaries, Sherisha Technologies (S) Pte Ltd, Singapore and its step-down subsidiaries namely, Kaltech Engineering & Refrigeration Pte Ltd, Singapore and Global Refrigerants (S) Pte Ltd, are expected to contribute substantial parts to its revenue basket going forward. The pledging of the shares by the promoters is just a temporary arrangements and is expected to be released soon.
The stock of Refex Refrigerants Ltd should be purchased on all declines for a price target of Rs.150--Rs.170, in the next 18 months time frame.
Disclosures: At the time of writing this article, author, his clients & dependent family members may have positions in the stocks mentioned above. The author, his firm, his clients or any of his dependent family members may make purchases or sale of the securities mentioned in blog Author may have positions in above stocks so have vested interest obviously in their going up or down as the case may be.
Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken
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The contents of this blog are for information purposes and are not recommendations to any person to Buy or Sell Securities. The informations are derived from sources that are deemed to be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. The author is not responsible for any loss in investments made, acting on the recommendations made here.
Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken
Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken
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