Sunday, November 29, 2009

Golden Rules

• Divide your capital into 4 equal risk parts.


• Never over trade.


• Never place order for BUY/SELL without stop loss conditions.


• Never let profit turn into loss.


• Trade with the trend.


• Never take lead you may loose heavily.


• Never try to be over smart.


• Don’t trade if trend not clear


• Don’t follow tips only.


• Use the right orders only.


• Withdraw portion of profits.


• Don’t be whimsical about closing your trades.


• Never buy a stock to get dividend.


• Never average your losses.


• Take big profits and small losses.


• Sell short as often as you go long.


• Never buy any stock just it is low priced.


• Pyramid your trades correctly.


• Decrease your trading after a series of successful trades.


• Don’t change your opinions during market hours.


• Don’t follow the crowd – they are usually wrong.


• Buy on rumor and sell on news.


• Take windfall gains when you get.


• Keep your charts up to date.


• Preserve your capital.


• Nothing ever new occurs in market.


• Markets are never wrong opinion may be.


• Never permit speculative ventures to turn into investments.


• Never try to predetermine your profits.


• Never buy a stock just because it is low priced or don’t sell just because it is high priced.


• Look for reasonable profits.


• Buy as soon as a stock makes new highs after a normal reaction.


• Ban wishful thinking in the market.


• Leaders of today may not be leaders of tomorrow.


• Don’t be too cautious about reasons behind the moves.


• Trade only the active stocks.


• Bear markets have no support and bull markets have no resistance.


• The smarter you are the longer it takes.


• It is very hard to get out of a trade than to get in.


• Don’t talk about what you are doing in the market.


• When time is up, markets must reverse.


• Control what you can; manage what you can not.


• Big movements take time to develop.


• A good trade is profitable right from the start.


• If you can not make money trading the leading issues you can not make it trading the overall market.


• Avoid partnership in trading accounts.


• The human side of every person is the greatest enemy of successful trading.


• Money can not be made every day in the market.


• As long as market is acting right don’t rush to take profits.


• Never buy a stock just because it has fallen from a great high, nor sell a stock because it is high priced.




When u are Getting Free calls with accuracy of more then 80% +.....Sometime our stock fails...but then we give stop & resistance levels too.
Always remember...no force or single person can move stock.Its a game of mass

psychology.We look at chart ,collect information and just spread it .......free of cost
Always Remember :Never pay money to anybody ..who is asking for it.Just ask any Analyst (TV ,Media ,Print or Website wale Analyst ko pucho............What is their success ratio in Day trading???A Million $ Question ...Doing Bla-Bla on TV ,writing on web is very easy......but while u trade .....u are playing with live wire



wish u happy trading to all of u.



Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Dubai World is Dubai's standard bearer for global investments.

The government-owned holding company is at the center of Dubai's thrust to diversify its economy into property, leisure and investment -- both locally and globally.Dubai is the most populous of the seven Emirates -- a territory ruled by a Muslim monarch -- that make up the United Arab Emirates.Dubai World was established in March 2006 under a decree ratified by the ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. Sheikh Mohammed also holds a majority stake in the company.

Dubai World has four main arms of investment: Transport and Logistics, Drydocks and Maritime, Urban Development and Investment and Financial Services.The company's assets include DP World, one of the largest marine terminal operators in the world. In February 2006, DP World sparked a national security debate in the U.S. when it acquired ports operator P&O.

Several months later it sold P&O's U.S. assets following objections from U.S. legislators that U.S. ports would fall under control of a Middle Eastern operator.Focusing on Dubai, Drydocks World & Dubai Maritime City, is an organization tasked with turning the Emirate into a major shipbuilding and martime hub.Istithmar World is the group's investment arm. It is a world-class investment company with extensive investments outside Dubai, notably in Europe, the U.S.and South Africa.Dubai World made headlines in March 2008 after Chairman Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem threatened to take the fund's investment out of Europe, in response to a proposed EU code of conduct for sovereign wealth funds -- state-owned investment companies.

Perhaps the best known arm of Dubai World's holdings is Nakheel the property developer behind world famous projects like the artificial Palm Islands and The World, built on reclaimed land.

There are also plans for The Universe, a series of man-made islands in the shape of the sun, the moon and the planets that would wrap around Nakheel's The World project.If completed, Nakheel's ambitious waterfront development of Dubai would add over 600 miles of beachfront to the Emirate.In January 2009, Nakheel announced that work would be halted for 12 months in the ambitious project to build Nakheel Tower, a 200-story skyscraper that would soar to 1km high -- and would become the world's tallest building.

Dubai sent investors reeling Thursday after asking creditors to freeze the debt repayments of one of its biggest holding companies, Dubai World.The announcement came after the market close on the eve of the Eid holiday and Thanksgiving in the U.S., leaving traders' hands tied over their exposure to investments in the Emirate.Shares dropped in London and Europe as bankers struggled to gauge the implications of the debt freeze without additional guidance from Wall Street.With very little information being distributed from Dubai, the market has been left to question the motives of ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum and the financial future of Dubai World and its huge portfolio.

So what happened?

Late Wednesday, the government of Dubai issued a statement saying it had authorised the Dubai Financial Support Fund to "spearhead the restructure of Dubai World with immediate effect."

The first step, it said, was to ask all providers of financing to Dubai World and Nakheel to "standstill" its debt repayments until at least May 30, 2010. It added, to the market's surprise, that the proceeds of a $5 billion bond issue raised hours earlier wouldn't be used to bail the company out.

Odd timing wasn't it?

Dubai's decision to release its statement just before the Eid holiday in the Middle East, and on the eve of Thanksgiving in the U.S., provoked consternation.

"Dubai have certainly picked their moment to finally own up to a need to restructure their debt. I would imagine the news has ruined a few Thanksgiving dinners today," David Morrsion, a strategist at GFT told the Financial Times.

How did the markets react?

Banking stocks led equity markets lower in London and Europe as traders moved to distance themselves from a potential debt hole in the Middle East. Technical problems in London halted trade for some time, providing further frustration for traders with exposure to Dubai World's lenders.

How severe is the debt?

Dubai World is said to account for some $59 billion of Dubai's $80 billion debt burden. Nakheel had been due to pay a $3.5 billion convertible loan which expires on December 14. More debts were due to be repaid next year.

"This is not just a couple of billion story," Turker Hamzaoglu, EMEA economist at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research told CNN.

"For instance, Dubai has to service $10 billion including the Nakheel debt in December and $15 billion U.S. dollars by the end of 2010," he added.

How much damage has the announcement done?

That's incalculable at this stage. Markets in the Middle East and the U.S. don't open until next week so the full impact won't be known until then. It also depends on Dubai's next move. The surprise announcement has shaken confidence in the Emirate as a place to do business.

"The key here is the communication of this strategy. I guess everybody is on the same page regarding the need for consolidation in Dubai and for the region. But the only market-positive implication would be if this comes with a clearly open and a predictable way," Hamzaoglu said.

"The problem is, here we have a lack of transparency and all these policy reactions are either coming at the last minute, or for example, the recent one just before the long holiday."

"I think this is going to shake some investor confidence which may not be reversed as quickly as people expect. So they have to be careful," he added.

Who will bail them out?

Abu Dhabi has been a lucrative source of funding for its neighbor. The $5 billion bond issue was take up by UAE banks.

The question now is whether it will continue to give its backing to its debt-laden neighbour. It may have the money to do so, but does it have the will?

What comes next?

Ideally, the market wants guidance as to Dubai's debt strategy. It has said that the Dubai World debt freeze is the first stage of a restructuring plan. Investors want to know what comes next.

Right now, the region is seen as a risky bet for nervous investors. Hamzaoglu says there are other options for those who want to back similar markets.

"From an investor perspective, if you want to still play for the global backdrop of oil prices, etc. there are some other markets, say Brazil or Russia, that investors can be interested in, rather than taking this high risk for the region," he said.



Market experts say the debt revelations from Dubai this week will not lead the global economy back into recession, but have seriously damaged the Emirate's standing as a leading financial hub.

The Dubai government caught investors off-guard late Wednesday by announcing it was asking creditors for a six-month moratorium on the debt repayments of Dubai World and Nakheel, one of its biggest holding companies and its real estate arm. The U.S. stock market opened lower on Friday as traders seized their first chance to respond to the news after the Thanksgiving holiday.

The Dow closed 153 points down while Nasdaq and the S&P lost 1.7 percent, although although light trading -- markets were only open half-a-day due to the holidays -- exaggerated any volatility in markets. European markets closed higher after recouping earlier losses. Earlier, Asian markets fell amid worries about the impact of Dubai's debt problems elsewhere.

"It's so easy to jump onto the gloom and doom bandwagon over this," Stephen Pope, Chief Global Equity Strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald told CNN.

For more than a decade, Dubai has set a new standard for pace of development. Cranes have dominated the skyline in a rapid flurry of building to establish the Emirate as not only a financial center, but a leading tourism hub.Long ago, the Emirate's ruler recognized that it would have to find another source of income as its oil reserves were depleted.

The call for a debt freeze came after a series of high-profile glamorous events. Just last week, Dubai hosted the Dubai World Championships, the climax of the inaugural Race to Dubai, one of the world's richest golf competitions.

Dubai is one of seven emirates which make up the United Arab Emirates.


Located on the southern coast of the Persian Gulf it is 3885 square kilometers in size and has a population of 1,758,244. It is ruled by Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. The Al Maktoum family has ruled Dubai since 1833. It is the fastest growing city in the world.After the Dubai government announcement, ratings agencies Standard & Poors' and Moody's downgraded their ratings on a number of Dubai's largest companies, including DP World and the Jebel Ali Free Zone. They both said their response reflected Dubai's announcement on the restructuring of Dubai World.

Farouk Soussa, Head of Middle East Government ratings at Standard & Poor's, told CNN the agency had been flagging issues about the debt burden of Dubai World and Nakheel since April.

"The fact that they are having difficulty repaying this debt is not news, it is not a surprise. What is more of a surprise is that the government of Dubai has not stepped in to help them out," Soussa said.

He said Standard & Poor's downgraded the likelihood of government support for Dubai's struggling companies back in June, and again on Wednesday, but analysts were working in an "information vacuum."

"The question of support is really the million dollar question. Very little has been said by the government specifically on this question throughout the last year," he said.

"In an opaque policy environment, what people have had to do is make assumptions regarding government support -- and clearly those assumptions were too high."

Few analysts expect Dubai to allow Dubai World to fail. It would come at too great a cost to the region.

But for Dubai, he says the damage has been done.

This drives a big hole into Dubai's ambitions of being the regional financial center because there's no shortage of other contenders for that.

Bahrain would like to have that mantle back again, Qatar is building up very aggressively there and is of course is seen as being one of the main players.

And Saudi Arabia has been touting Jeddah as regional hub, so there's no shortage of competitors who could take that role away from Dubai.

Thursday, November 26, 2009

PICK OF THE WEEK:

Alchemist Realty Ltd

BSE Code: 532114

Face Value: Rs.2

CMP: Rs.14.54

Market Cap: Rs.107.74 Cr

EPS: Re.0.11

Introduction: Formerly known as Pan Packaging Industries Ltd, the Company’s principal activity at present is to develop real estate property. Pan Packaging Industries Private Ltd. was originally incorporated as Private Limited company on 03 March 1983 to manufacture and supply Corrugated Boxes. The name and style of the company was changed as Pan Packaging Industries Limited on 25th April 1995. The company started its commercial production in 13-03-1984 which was its first phase of operations with an installed capacity of 900 TPA. Alchemist Realty is now widely recognized as one of the growing innovative real estate companies in India.

The Company now engages in the acquisition and development of real estate and infrastructure facilities in India. It real estate development projects include housing projects, cottages, recreation clubs, and other infrastructure projects. The company which was formerly known as Pan Packaging Industries Limited changed its name to Alchemist Realty Limited in 2006. Alchemist Realty Limited is based in Mumbai, India.

Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 42.3 % while the general public holds 57.70% according to the latest data available.

Shareholding belonging to the category

"Public" and holding more than 1% of the Total No. of Shares


Sl. No. Name of the Shareholder No. of Shares Shares as % of Total No. of Shares

1 Endogram Leasing & Trading C 8,605,580 11.61

2 Basic Soft Solutions Pvt Ltd 4,878,500 6.58

3 Manbhavan Buildwell Pvt 2,442,285 3.30

4 Basics Soft Solutions Pvt Ltd 1,917,750 2.59

5 Amandeep 2,635,200 3.56

6 Archna Singh 1,560,000 2.11

7 Sunil Talwar 1,052,695 1.42

8 Varinder Pal Singh 912,730 1.23

9 HS FII Investments Ltd 7,115,000 9.60

10 CLSA Mauritius Ltd 7,112,000 9.60

11 Somerset Emerging Opport 1,143,944 1.54

Total 39,375,684 53.14

Financials: In FY09, though the net sales of the company increased but the net profit declined due to higher investments in Land Plots & Constructed Properties. The net income of the company for FY09 came out to be Rs.101.55 Cr as against Rs.82.87 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company came out to be Rs.1.03 Cr in FY09 as against Rs.4.54 Cr in the same period previous year. In Q2FY10, the total income of the company came out to be Rs.28.071 Cr as against Rs.5.7 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company for Q2FY10 came out to be Rs.24.62 lakhs as against Rs.12.43 lakhs in the same period previous year. During the quarter ended September, 2009, the company declared a divided of 5%, i.e.Re.0.10 per equity share of Rs.2 each for the year FY09.

Triggers:

• During the year, the Company acquired lands at various locations all over the country and is in the process of launching many projects in Real Estate Development which includes housing projects, cottages, recreation clubs and other infrastructure projects. The Company has also finalized Joint Venture agreements with various Companies for launch of prestigious projects.

• In the last fiscal the Company issued 7040100 equity shares of the face value of Rs.10 each as bonus shares to the shareholders in the ratio of 1:1 i.e. One bonus share for every one scare held by the shareholders as on record date i.e. 7th February, 2008. This somewhat proves that it is in investor friendly.

• Alchemist Realty Limited is a real estate company, for which land is a key asset. The Company believes in acquiring lower cost land in suburban area and transforming them into modem and utilizes land. With this philosophy intact, the Company has continued to develop its land bank. This is quite evident in FY09 results, when the company invested more in assets as compared to the same value in previous year. Needless to say in FY08 and FY09, the Company acquired newer land parcels in various parts of North India.

• Alchemist Realty Limited is focused on developing itself as a premium brand that enjoys a strong sense of trust amongst its stakeholders. There has been a constant endeavor to focus on creating a brand that embodies all the Company’s strategic goals and corporate values. In the real estate space, the Alchemist Realty Limited stands for: (a) Ability to identify and procure land in strategic locations, (b) Experience in executing large projects, c) Superior design, construction and development.

• The company is exploring various opportunities in the real estate business and has also finalized Joint Venture agreements with various other players in the Real Estate for launch of prestigious projects. With the continuous trend of shifting population from rural areas to urban areas, increase in the size of population, the demand of both residential and commercial properties is showing an upward trend. Moreover, it is now widely believed that the US Fed will happily risk inflation in order to avoid deflation, Because the US Fed is far more worried about the possibility of deflation (systematically falling prices) caused by a double-dip recession. Japan in the 1990s suffered economic stagnation for a decade because of deflation, and the US is determined to avoid that path. So, it will keep interest rates at virtually zero for the foreseeable future. So this is expected to increases money supply by over a trillion dollars in the world and that too at virtually zero interest. The dollar is an international currency whose impact is felt across the world. Investors and speculators everywhere know that growth prospects are much better in emerging markets than in the West. So they are borrowing hundreds of billions of dollars at dirt-cheap rates to buy stocks, real estate and commodities in emerging markets. Hence, asset values are getting inflated not just in India but in all emerging markets. This is expected to push the investors to real estate stocks and pure real estates in future. The company stands to gain from this move as it has a sizable land bank.

• The last year there was news in a section of the media that Alchemist Realty Ltd will invest over Rs.5, 000 Cr in the next 7-10 years for developing a land bank of 10,600 acres. The company’s land bank in CY08, stood at 10,600 acres across the country, mainly in the northern states.

• Alchemist Realty proposes to open a chain of specialty restaurants in northern India under ‘Red Cap’ brand. At first, the company would open only 20 (twenty) restaurants by the end of FY11 in northern states. The size of the outlets would vary from 3,200 sq ft to 6,500 sq ft. The company would also develop over 1,000 high-end housing units by 2011. The company would construct luxury villas on nine acres of land in Shimla and an IT park at Chandigarh.



Conclusion: Considering all the factors mentioned above it will be prudent to invest in the shares of Alchemist Realty Ltd for medium to long term perspective, though some short term gains till Rs.21 cannot be ruled out.

From the weekly charts it is found that the stock has a strong support at Rs.13.5; the higher bottom being made at Rs.14.20. The fast Stochastic and Bollinger bands are in buy mode. One can buy the scrip at the CMP of Rs.14.54 for a target of Rs.21 in the short term. In the medium to long term, the scrip can rise to Rs.55-Rs.60. Hence buy this scrip in all declines.


Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Kamanwala Housing Construction - Small Cap Real Estate Stock To Buy

Kamanwala Housing Construction Limited (KHCL) is a company with a 20-year track record. They are based at Mumbai, the commercial capital of India. Kamanwala have 12 ongoing projects spread across the prime location of Mumbai like central and western Mumbai – Bandra Kurla Complex, Andheri, Santa Cruz, Malad and Versova.
Mumbai’s Filmistan studio is owned in partnership by Kamanwala and they are coming up with development of this 7 lakh sq ft of land to a shopping mall. Kamanwala has entered into joint venture with M/s. Prajay Engineers & others to construct at Patancheru, Hyderabad. The work has already began.
Kamanwala stock is a dividend paying company. They also gave bonus shares last year.
Big investors who are buying stocks of Kamalwala constructions:


=> Mavi investment’s Nirmal Kotecha of Pyramid Samira fame is buying this stock


=> Nisha Suman Jain is holding a major quantity of more than 10 % and in bulk deal it shows that she is increasing her stake at every stage. She is HNI who is director of Jainson Group of Industries, Build2 Last Infrastructure and a film producer of Maalik Ek.


=> Ashok Parmar, a HNI from Pune has invested in Kamanwala. He is known for acquiring a big stake in the company he invests in and according to news, he is also increasing his stake in Kamanwala. He has been in news for acquiring a high stake in Videocon and shooting its price up.

=> Religare holds a good amount of quantity and they are in the process of increasing it further.


Real estate sector and housing has started recovering from recession but it will take time. Mumbai real estate price has been shooting up for some time now and 2010 would observe the recovery in prices.
The company would achieve a turnover of Rs.1800 cr in 18 months( March 2011) due to completion of its projects which totals up to 20 lakh sq ft. Following this, the expected EPS for 2011 is Rs.150 - Rs.200. It is a small cap stock to buy and one can buy especially if it corrects from current CMP 66.50/-


Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Latest update after Swiss Bank has agreed to disclose the funds&.

Our Indians' Money - 70, 00,000 Crores Rupees In Swiss Bank



1) Yes, 70 lakhs crores rupees of India are lying in Switzerland banks. This is the highest amount lying outside any country, from amongst 180 countries of the world, as if India is the champion of Black Money.



2) Swiss Government has officially written to Indian Government that they are willing to inform the details of holders of 70 lakh crore rupees in their Banks, if Indian Government officially asks them.



3) On 22-5-08, this news has already been published in The Times of India and other Newspapers based on Swiss Government's official letter to Indian Government.



4) But the Indian Government has not sent any official enquiry to Switzerland for details of money which has been sent outside India between 1947 to 2008.. The opposition party is also equally not interested in doing so because most of the amount is owned by politicians and it is every Indian's money.



5) This money belongs to our country. From these funds we can repay 13 times of our country's foreign debt. The interest alone can take care of the Centers yearly budget. People need not pay any taxes and we can pay Rs. 1 lakh to each of 45 crore poor families.



6) Let us imagine, if Swiss Bank is holding Rs. 70 lakh Crores, then how much money is lying in other 69 Banks? How much they have deprived the Indian people? Just think, if the Account holder dies, the bank becomes the owner of the funds in his account.



7) Are these people totally ignorant about the philosophy of Karma? What will this ill-gotten wealth do to them and their families when they own/use such money, generated out of corruption and exploitation?



8) Indian people have read and have known about these facts. But the helpless people have neither time nor inclination to do anything in the matter. This is like "a new freedom struggle" and we will have to fight this.



9) This money is the result of our sweat and blood.. The wealth generated and earned after putting in lots of mental and physical efforts by Indian people must be brought back to our country.

Mid-day Multimedia - Stock Analysis & Recommendation

Multimedia Limited operates as a media company in India. It owns and operates various community newspapers, including Mid Day and Sunday Mid Day for English readers, Gujarati Mid Day, and Urdu daily Inquilab. The company also operates Radio One 94.3 FM with stations at Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, and Pune.
In addition, it engages in outdoor advertising business. Mid-Day Multimedia Limited is based in Mumbai, India. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, an iconic investor in Indian stock markets pocketed around 5% stake in the counter at 40 odd rs. Sensex moved five times since then, many scrips became huge wealth creators, people made fortune but mid-day never moved.
Market Cap 127.07

* EPS (TTM) 0.63

* P/E 38.17

* P/C 29.69

* Book Value 30.60

* Price/Book 0.79

Div(%) 0.00

Div Yield(%) -

Market Lot 1.00

Face Value 10.00

Industry P/E 32.30
The stock is trading at higher P/E levels but it is available below it's book value which is indication of a value stock.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is holding the stock even now which shows his confidence and conviction in the company. Media sector is a sun rising sector with immense potential and opportunities. With RJ still backing it I feel mid day is a stock to buy which has little downside from around 20/- levels but can be a multi bagger in long run.


Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Thursday, November 19, 2009

MY FINANCIAL GURU ;Rakesh Jhunjhunwala On How To Buy Stocks

Excerpts of interview of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala which every investor must read, were published on moneycontrol.com. I am reproducing it here for benefit of fellow investors.
If you’re a proponent of value investing, which involves buying stocks that offer value when they’re cheap and holding on to them till they achieve their potential — Warren Buffet style — here are tips from India’s own Buffet, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, that you may use.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s advice to investors is not to look for companies that would give profits but understand factors that help in creating profits. “Don’t emphasise too much on analysis of profits,” he says. “Profits are created due to various stages of circumstances. I always look at how large is the opportunity for that business in the sector.”
He recalls how he bought Praj Industries, a bio-ethanol company that gave him large returns. “When I bought Praj, we thought there would be a humongous demand for ethanol. The opportunity was huge but it was not recognized.”
IT bellwether Infosys, he said, benefited because of the internet revolution. “Nobody knew about Infosys in 1993 but Infosys could become Infosys because the opportunity for the internet went through the roof.”


“When opportunities come, they can come through technology, marketing, brands, value protections, capital, etc. You need to be able to spot those.”
— “Then I look at scalability of a particular company that I choose in a sector,” Jhunjhunwala says. “A friend of mine asked me: should I invest in a small cap or largecap? I said we must invest in the smallcaps, which will be the largecaps. The biggest challenge of investing is that you should recognise whether organization has the ability to scale.”
Jhunjhunwala says he makes an investing decision by understanding how a company’s profits may grow in the next four-five years, and by that account, its price-to-earnings and valuation. “If I succeed in making the right call, then after four-five years, I do a proper re-examination of the business model and accordingly reallocate capital because the business model can undergo change. Intense competition could emerge in that sector,” he says. “This is when I examine the earlier opinion I had made when I first bought, whether those assumptions still were valid.”
— How should you spot a good company? “You can have an idea by looking at companies’ capital raising. Are they distributing profits, are they using the surpluses in the right manner,” he says. “For me, quarters don’t matter. There can be always be an aberration in one quarter when the company has less profits. You should examine the reason for it and whether it can revert back on its growth.”
— Choices of asset classes is important too, says Jhunjhunwala. “If you bought gold in 1970 and sold it in 1980. you bought the Nikkei Index in 1980 and sold it in 1989 and then bought the Nasdaq [till before the dotcom bust], you would have made 33% compounded returns in three decades,” he says. “Warren Buffet rode the entire wave of those different asset classes.”
— “Value investing is relevant in all circumstances. But thought processes and principles are dynamic and not static. Be open to change,” he says.


— Don’t get carried away short term market trends, he says. “In 1999, people used to buy Himachal Futuristic, Global Tele, Pentasoft, I used to buy Shipping Corporation and Bharat Electronics because I saw long-term value,” he adds. “Never get carried away by aberrations, recognize and respect them but do remember that the market corrects its aberration though it takes time.”



Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Scripscan:Rama Pulp & Papers Ltd-----currently quoting at compelling valuations

Scripscan:Rama Pulp & Papers Ltd@21

Code:502587
Story:Rama Pulp & Papers Limited (RPPL) is a certified ISO 9001-2000 Company, engaged in manufacturing various types of papers mainly cultural and speciality grades. RPPL has firmly positioned itself among prominent paper manufacturing groups based in India.Rama Pulp and paper is a mid sized player in the Indian paper industry. The company currently operates with a capacity of 21,000 tpa with the capability to manufacture various paper varieties like writing-printing and carbon base paper, poster and wrapping paper,napken grade tissue paper etc. RPPL is expanding its capacity to 30,000 MTs. p.a. The company has a strong distribution network that enables it to market its products in various regions.Today RPPL has grown from strength to strength with its diversified product mix andstrategic marketing plan. With further expansion programs on hand, RPPL is now looking ahead to meet the emerging challenges both in domestic as well as overseas market.Keeping in view to take the company to the next level, company is planning to acquire an existing Industrial Chemical Unit to produce various industrial grades of chemicals, especially Sulfonated products like Sulfur Dioxide, Sulfur Trioxide etc.This new venture will give the company a new lease of life.As the paper industry requires lot of steam and power, the high pressure steam being vented out of the manufacturing process of these chemicals can be used for running the steam based power plant and then the extracted steam will be used for manufacturing of paper. Hence, the paper mill will self sufficient for its requirement of energy like steam and power. The will make the company very high on its bottom line.RPPL has a strong product mix that would enable it to cater to the demands of various customer segments. The new value added products introduced by the company are well accepted by the dealers as well as the end users, which ultimately gave a forward thrust to the company to emerge as a key player in this segment. The Carbon base paper being manufactured by the company has a market share of more than 50%, which places the company among the top players in this segment.The company is exporting its products to a very reputed chain of departmental stores like WALLMART and its specialty grade paper is very well accepted globally.The demand of paper as a whole is in a growing spree. The demand of paper is directly linked to the literacy of a particular country and in India, with implementation of educational policy, the literacy rate is growing and paper consumption is also in upward. Therefore, a steady growth in the demand of paper, especially writing printing,newsprint etc., is expected.RPPL is expected to register robust growth in revenues and earnings going forward. It is currently quoting at compelling valuations of 1.8x and 1.6x FY11E and FY12E earnings. Capacity expansion and growing demand for paper from various segments like education, industrial and specialty, in addition to its inorganic growth in Sulfonated chemicals will drive revenue and earnings growth for RPPL. The stock has potential to deliver handsome returns to the investors over a period of next one year. Investors can enter into the stock at current level considering the huge growth potential, which would enable investors to earn a healthy return on their investment.


Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Monday, November 16, 2009

Cox and Kings (India) — IPO: Invest

Investments with a long-term perspective can be considered in the initial public offering of the global tour operator Cox and Kings (C&K). The company’s strong brand image, wide geographical reach — both within the country and across major global markets — synergies of operations between its various subsidiaries and the economies of scale it thus enjoys are positives to the offer.
Despite last year’s declining trends in the global travel and tourism space, C&K managed to not just grow it revenues but also improve its operating margin and profits. C&K’s strong domestic market position helped by improving discretionary spends by Indian consumers and its newly acquired presence in high potential markets of the US and Australia offers it bright growth prospects.
The highly fragmented domestic travel market, with few organised tour operators, also leaves sufficient scope for market share gains. The valuation, though a tad stiff given the current market conditions, is at a discount to that of Mahindra Holidays and Resorts (29 times its likely FY10 per share earnings).
The offer price of Rs 316-330 discounts the C&K’s likely FY-10 per share earnings by 22-23 times on post-offer equity base. The company’s superior growth rates, high operating margin in this business and the likely scarcity premium for the business do offer room for premium valuations.
Business prospects

The company’s domestic business straddles leisure travel, corporate travel, forex and visa processing. While it designs packages for both individuals and groups for their domestic and international travel-tagged outbound travel, it also offers destination management and ground handling services for foreign tourists visiting India.
C&K has also built a web of subsidiaries that complement each other’s business offerings. For instance, while on the one hand, its overseas presence through its subsidiaries help attract business for the domestic inbound business, on the other, it also helps keep a check on service levels and costs.
Similarly, its UK subsidiary, ETN, that does destination management for European sites stands to gain from its acquisitions in Australia and the US, both of which enjoy a high outbound travel volume to Europe. The high synergies and travel volumes afford the company better bargaining power with airlines and hotels, in turn, helping it competitively price its products and services.
Other ventures such as Maharaja Express, a luxury train to be launched in January 2010 in collaboration with IRCTC and visa-processing business for which it has received approvals from six countries, also offer long-term growth potential.
Marketing presence

On the whole, C&K has presence in 19 countries. In India, which made up more than half its overall revenues last year, the company has 255 points of presence covering 164 locations through a mix of owned and franchised sales shops, general sales agents and preferred sales agents.
The company, may need toimprove its reach in order to keep competition at bay. Its franchise distribution model holds potential in this regard. Not only does it offer a cheaper expansion mode, it may also help convert potential competitors into partners; the established client relationships of converts offering an added advantage.
C&K may also have to fight with vacation ownership companies for consumers’ wallet share. In that, however, tour operators appear relatively better placed as besides being asset light, they offer a wider basket of travel destinations.
Results and IPO proceeds

Over the last three years, C&K has grown its revenues and profits at a compounded annual growth rate of about 66 per cent and 80 per cent, respectively. In the same period, it managed to expand its operating profit margin by 10 percentage points to 42 per cent. Attributable mainly to increasing interest burden, the company’s NPM fell to 22 per cent from 28 per cent. With C&K seeking to use a portion of the IPO proceeds (Rs 129.6 crore) to repay loans, its interest outgo can be expected to come down significantly. C&K also plans to earmark IPO proceeds for acquisitions (Rs 150 crore), invest in overseas subsidiaries and upgrade corporate office.
Offer Details

The company seeks to raise Rs 584-610 crore from the issue, which also comprises an offer for sale of 3,046,640 equity shares by Lehman Brothers Opportunity Ltd, Deutsche Securities Mauritius Ltd and Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana.
The offer is open from November 18-20.


Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Saturday, November 14, 2009

LEARNING SECTION-----The cognitive process of acquiring skill

In his wonderful book, Pit Bull , Marty Schwartz tells several stories of the times he lost money because his ego got in the way. In the end he has this to say about ego: "I've said it before, and I'm going to say it again, because it cannot be overemphasized: the most important change in my trading career occurred when I learned to DIVORCE MY EGO FROM THE TRADE. Trading is a psychological game. Most people think that they're playing against the market, but the market doesn't care. You're really playing against yourself. You have to stop trying to will things to happen in order to prove that you're right. Listen only to what the market is telling you now. Forget what you thought it was telling you five minutes ago. The sole objective of trading is not to prove you're right, but to hear the cash register ring




When u are Getting Free calls with accuracy of more then 80% +.....Sometime our stock fails...but then we give stop & resistance levels too.



Always remember...no force or single person can move stock.Its a game of mass psychology.We look at chart ,collect information and just spread

it .......free of cost.


Always Remember :Never pay money to anybody ..who is asking for it.Just ask any Analyst (TV ,Media ,Print or Website wale Analyst ko pucho............What is their success ratio in Day trading???A Million $ Question ...Doing Bla-Bla on TV ,writing on web is very easy......but while u trade .....u are playing with live wire


wish u happy trading to all of u.



Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Pick of the Week

Geodesic Ltd


BSE Code: 503699


CMP: Rs.99.55


Face Value: Rs.2


52-Week High/Low: Rs.158.65/ Rs.38.50


Price/Book: 1.50


P/E: 4.99


EPS: Rs.19.94


Dividend Yield: 1.61%

Introduction: Geodesic Ltd established inthe year 1999, operates in a niche area of developing various innovative products in the information, communication and entertainment space. Geodesic's product t-list is versatile and all-encompassing when it comes to offering choice of communication and collaboration solutions to its users, whether it is the inherently simple hand-held Simputer to web-based mobile & wireless applications to the intricately complex Spyder applications.

Geodesic's mix of innovative products and high performance solutions has driven the company to profit right from its first year. Focusing its inventive capabilities across all aspects of communication and collaboration the company is widely recognized for its pioneering universal instant messaging system.

Geodesic is all set to contribute significantly to the wave of Convergence by launching innovative world class products such as the Geodesic IP phone that operates across different platforms of landlines, mobile phones & desktops/laptops that will work on all prevailing internet connections and will help users save 75-80 % on long distance calls.

Geodesic's talented staff of more than 400 employees ensures innovation, utility and ease of use. The combination of a highly competent team and state-of-the-art tools enhance the development of future-proof, useful business solutions.

Geodesic has offices in UK, Sweden, Mauritius, Germany and Hong Kong. It provides solutions and services to the following segments:

• Enterprise---SMB, BFSI, Large Business, System Integrators, Govt. etc.

• Portals and Publishers

• Handset manufacturers and Telecom Operators

• Retail Business.

Its products include a communication stack (Email/IM/ VOIP/ SMS), Customer Alignment and Relationship management and the entertainment stack including Internet Radio. Geodesic Ltd also builds E-governance solutions based on its GeoAmida (Geodesic’s Hand held Computer).

Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 22.74 % while the general public holds 77.26% of the shares of the company.

Shareholding belonging to the category

"Public" and holding more than 1% of the Total No.of Shares


Sl. No. Name of the Shareholder No. of Shares Shares as % of Total No. of Shares

1 Sloane Robinson Llp A/C Sr Global (Mauritius Class C -International) 6,941,726 7.53

2 Genesis Indian Investment Company Ltd General Sub Fund 5,636,742 6.11

3 Tree Line Asia Master Fund (Singapore) Pte Ltd 5,576,957 6.05

4 Deutsche Secuririies Mauritius Ltd 3,838,171 4.16

5 Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc A/C Morgan Stanley India Investment Fund Inc 955,459 1.04

6 Indea Capital PTE Ltd A/C Indea Absolute Return Fund 1,000,000 1.08

7 Carlson Fund Equity - Asian Small Cap 3,050,000 3.31

8 Genesis Asset Managers Llp A/C Smaller Companies Portfolio Of The Genesis Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund Ltd. 2,431,603 2.64

9 Sloane Robinson Llp A/C Sr Global (Mauritius) Ltd (Class B Asia) 2,493,168 2.70

10 College Retirement Equities Fund - Global Equity Account 1,971,502 2.14

11 Banque Degroof Laxembourg Sa A/C Asia Pacific Performance Sicav 1,436,595 1.56

12 Shinsei Uti India Fund (Mauritius) Ltd 1,746,892 1.89

13 Ward Ferry Management Limited A/C Wf Asian Smaller Companies Fund Ltd. 2,457,000 2.66

14 College Retirement Equities Fund - Stock Account 1,312,500 1.42

15 Ward Ferry Management Limited A/C Wf India Reconnaissance Fund Ltd 1,183,000 1.28

16 Fidelity Funds - Pacific Fund 924,441 1.00

17 Payash Securities Pvt Ltd 1,194,727 1.30

Total 44,150,483 47.88

Financials: Geodesic Ltd reported revenue of Rs.154.4 Cr in Q2FY10, which is flat as compared to the same quarter previous year. It has managed to report a marginal rise in revenues despite revising its licensing prices downwards for the enterprise segment. Geodesic issued fewer licenses of Mundu IM and Radio to the OEM/ODM segment owing to the drop in smart phone shipments.

Its net profit for the 2nd quarter, FY10 declined by 24% at Rs.57.03 Cr as compared to the quarter ended Sept 30, 2008. The EPS for Q2FY10 came out to be Rs.6.18 as against Rs.8.12 in the same period previous year. Dividend at 40% (Re.0.80 per share) on the face value of equity share is declared by the shareholders in the AGM held on 29-09-09 and paid on 20-10-09.

Triggers:

• Geodesic's mix of innovative products and high performance solutions has driven the company to profit right from its first year. Company was awarded the Inaugural Red Herring Small Cap 100 award and is one of the only Indian companies to be included in the Red Herring Small Cap 100 list. Geodesic is a traded on India's major Stock Exchanges, the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE).

• The Company is focusing its inventive capabilities across all aspects of communication and collaboration. Their areas of specialty include RDBMS, networking applications, web technologies (including interface designing and Interactivity) and security protocols. Company is widely recognized for its pioneering universal instant messaging system (www.mundu.com). The Mundu products successfully combine AIM, Google Talk, ICQ, MSN, Mundu and Yahoo with deep content collaboration across the Internet, wireless devices and platforms.

• All Geodesic products are complimentary to each other. Each product can be used independently but also seamlessly integrates with all other products. Geodesic customers can begin with a single product that fulfills their requirements and as their requirements change or increase; additional products from the Geodesic suite can easily be incorporated. Geodesic was the first in the world to introduce an 'Information Slider' that changed the way people shared and collaborated information.

• The Mundu SMS launched its International SMS Service in India, Australia, Singapore, Philippines, South Africa, UAE, and UK. Mundu SMS will reach out to more than 100 countries during the financial year.

• It announced plans to launch Filmorbit—a portal dedicated to the India Entertainment and Media industry in India. The portal would use Mundu Entertainment stake as a means to deliver deep interlinked content. Moreover, Mundu Radio has been rated as one of the top 10 popular applications on the Nokia OVI store.

• Forbes Magazine listed Geodesic in the top 200 under a billion companies. The company signed a deal with Entel PCS, Chile’s largest mobile operator to provide windows live instant messaging service to its mobile subscribers.

• A UK based Financial Service Company acting as an exchange for C2C, C2B and B2B multi-currency transaction signed a trial order for the company’s GeoAmida hand held device.

• The company signed deals with Orissa Capital Bank B S C, Bahrain, Business India Group and a major Korean Investment Bank to provide financial service solutions including CRM and integrated communications over web.

• During the last quarter the Chandamama launched interactive children friendly portals in Kannada, Marathi, Telegu, Tamil and Hindi, with a host of features, making browsing exciting and enjoyable for readers.

Valuation and Chart Check:

The Geodesic Ltd’s business model is based on a recurring revenue stream. The nature of the products and the business promotes returning customers and all Geodesic products are created with this model in mind.

The charts however are not giving an immediate buy signal, but the same cannot be denied in the middle of the week. Both the slow and fast oscillators are highly oversold and a bounce can be expected at any time. A bounce from the temporary bottom formed should be used to accumulate. A short term target of Rs.141 cannot be ruled out in the next 3 to 4 months time frame. The medium to long term investors should buy the scrip with a SL of Rs.94.50

Note: The stock was recommended to the Paid Groups ( on the last Sunday (8th November, 2009).


Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Accumulate rating on Gateway Distriparks with a target price of Rs 146.

A report released on November 10 said: "Gateway Rail Freight (GRFL) is raising Rs3bn through the issue of Compulsorily Convertible Preference Shares (CCPS) to Blackstone, which on conversion, will entitle Blackstone to acquire between 37.27% and 49.9% of the share capital of GRFL. The deal incorporates a call and put option and Blackstone's stake in GRFL is linked to the company's ability to achieve the set EBITDA targets.
"The much needed infusion of funds will enable GRFL to scale-up its rake capacity, from the existing 18 rakes to 25-30 rakes. This is positive for Gateway Distriparks’ (GDL) shareholders as with the company's CFS business under pressure, the early breakeven in the rail business will provide a fillip. Assuming Blackstone's stake in GRFL at the midpoint of the range (43.5%), its cost price per share will be Rs 19.5; this is at 38% premium to the post-issue BV of GRFL and 95% premium to GDL's cost price in GRFL.
"Since the deal is a structured one, with protection and broad representation available to Blackstone, it is difficult to extrapolate into the deal and ascribe an exact valuation to GRFL. However, very broadly, assuming Blackstone's stake at 37.7%, the value attributable to GDL is Rs4.9bn, while with Blackstone's stake at 49.9%, the value accruing to GDL stands at Rs3bn. This is slightly below the expectation that was built-in to the stock.
"Although the valuation is slightly below market expectations, in our opinion, the money was much needed to carry out its expansion plans. Besides, over the long-term, we believe that this fund raising will clearly be positive for the company as it will help the company to grow. We are valuing the CFS and the cold chain business at PER of 12x FY11 which gives us a value of Rs 118/share. Further, we are valuing the rail business at P/B of 1.25, with a 10% holding company discount. This translates to Rs 28/share assuming Blackstone's stake at a midpoint of 43.5%, thereby, GDL's stake at 56.5%. We are positive on the stock from a long-term point of view and advise investor to accumulate the stock on dips. We maintain ‘Accumulate’ on the stock, with a price target of Rs 146." CMP=125.50/-


Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Scripscan:GTL Ltd


cmp:345

Code:500160
Story:GTL Limited provides network services for telecom services providers and technology providers. It offers network planning and design services, such as RF planning and design, RF optimization, transmission planning, benchmarking and auditing, in-building solutions, and virtual planning and optimization; and network deployment services, including site/construction engineering, management services, site implementation, acceptance services, site documentation, and validation services. The company also provides network operations and maintenance services that comprise network monitoring and operations, network field maintenance, technical support and process management, logistics and vendor management, and transition management; and infrastructure management services, such as program management, site expansion management, shareability assessment, documentation management, disaster recovery management, and site acquisition management. In addition, it offers energy management services, including energy audits of telecom infrastructure, process improvements and best practices, technology upgradation, and alternate sources of energy; and professional services in the areas of RF engineering, NSS engineering, Vas and billing, 2G and 3G access, microwave and optical transmission networks, and network operations and maintenance. It has operations in the United States, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. The company has strategic alliance with Ericsson UK to serve managed network infrastructure services market in the United Kingdom.We maintain our FY10E revenue and EBIDTA estimates, but lower our PATestimates by 4% due to increase in interest expenses. We revise our FY10E EPS to Rs16.8 (from Rs17.6 earlier)and introduce FY11E EPS at Rs 20/share. We revise our SOTP based target price to Rs 325/ share based on 15x FY11E EPS of Rs20 and value of holding in GTL Infra at Rs50/ share. Domestic order deferrals and higher working capital cycle remain concerns on the growthand cash flows of the company.The downside to the stock price could be limited due to the likely large order wins from BSNL tender.I maintain a BUY rating on it.

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Saturday, November 07, 2009

Scripscan:Bhagwati Banquets & Hotels Ltd ; To me its a great buy at the present levels

Cmp:41

Target:49
Duration:3-5 months

Traded in:Nse-Bse
Business contributor:Bhagwati Banquets derives revenues from three major sources.Presently more than 1/3rd of its revenues comes from the banquet facility, 25% comes from club management and the rest from outdoor catering. The prime is the Banquets Hall facility and the company has also got four halls in Ahmedabad.BHagwati has been doing club management for three major clubs namely Rajpath Club, Karnavati Club, GCAC and the revolving restaurant called Patang".As these are seasonal businesses, if one of the businesses gets affected, the other two businesses can support them.The company has 1,000 people, consisting of 10 master chefs and a catering staff of 650 for Ahmedabad and 45 for Surat.
Company vision:The company has set a target to set up 5-star hotels in Ahmedabad,Jaipur,Hyderabad,Lucknow and Mumbai in the coming 10-12 years.It is also evaluating several proposals to acquire property for its new hotel at Ahmedabad. These company dreams really big and if it can acheive its desires then Bhagwati banquets can just become one of the scrips to watch out for in the days to come.
A catering player to boost your wealth:You have been invited to a wedding ceremony or a party or say in any occasion and yup our "Bhagwati banquets" is there to satiate all your desires but at an expense.It charges from Rs 350 to Rs 900 a meal and provides personalized service.A minimum order has to be for 300 people (off-season) and 500 in season, resulting in revenue ranging from Rs 1 lakhs--4.5 lakhs on each order.It would be prudent to note that the catering business generates free cash, as it receives payments in cash and obtains credit from its suppliers. Hence, the working capital required is low.What a satisfaction folks-Just consider,You are the owner of the company and your freind has hired your company for all the meal and party arrangements.
5-star hotel at Surat:The company has setting up a 5-star hotel at Surat with 65,000 square feet (two halls of 32,500 square feet each) a convention and banqueting hall to accommodate at Least 3,000 people at a time for any event.This hotel has 100 rooms (deluxe, suites and a presidential suite).It has two large banquet halls, which can be partitioned into smatter halls as required, to accommodate at Least 3,000 people.The hotel also has a business center with boardroom, conference rooms, world-class spa, pub, discotheque, etc.The hotel is all ready and would start its operations from these november itself.It expects Rs 50 crores in revenue and Rs 15 crs in operating profit from the Surat hotel in the first year of operation.The typical room rate in Ahmedabad is Rs 5,000 per day and average occupancy is 75-80%.
Wow,so much,anything else its planning:-Watch out...........
1)It has already commenced catering services in Mumbai,rajkot etc
2)It has futher plans to enter into tie-ups with clubs for providing its services.
3)It plans to serve companies and MNCs, BPO centres, shopping malls, cinema halls, etc. catering for them and providing food packs.
4)The company plans to develop a separate club adjoining the surat hotel,resulting in additional revenues and thus an increase in profits.
Facts to comfort:Its global india and companies having unique business models gave tremendous capital appreciation in the last few years.Few of the notable examples being Educomp,aurion pro,mic tech,Opto circuits,country club and many more.Bhagwati is a tremendously agggresive company and it has got a monopolistic business with high operating profit margin ratio.
Whats most inspiring is the main promoter of the company and the largest stake holder,Mr Narendra somani-one of the finest vision oriented man bought nearly 13 lakh 50 thousand shares of his own company from open market purchases in the last 8-9quarters.
Conclusion:The catering service has done well in the past five years. The number of meals supplied per day has jumped from 200/300 in FY03 to 1,500/2,000 in FY07.At the CMP of Rs 39,the stock trades at 3x FY11E EPS of Rs 13.A great business model backed by a very strong and ambitious pedigree,a market leader with hardly any competition,A pure play on indian consumption and growth story,anything else is required to ventitale for inspiring?To me its a great buy at the present levels

Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken

Friday, November 06, 2009

(100% authentic news from sources). It is a multi-bagger in the making...

Sanguine Media Services Ltd almost hit the buyer freeze today with good volumes, before cooling down a bit. There are some good news coming in the company--hence accumulate in bulk. The book value of the scrip is around Rs.22. The bad days are over for the company. The company has struck contracts with a division of the Sun TV Network (100% authentic news from sources). Hence, I have now increased my target to Rs.18--19, with the next 6 to 9 months time frame. It is a multi-bagger in the making...

Thursday, November 05, 2009

ITL Industries Ltd

BSE Code: 522183

CMP: Rs.32

Market Cap: Rs.9.64 Cr

EPS: Rs.4.69

P/E: 6.24

Industry P/E: 17

Dividend yield: 3.42%

Introduction: ITL Industries Ltd. was established in 1986, as a commercial Tool Room to cater to the needs of local industries. Engineering industry in India then, was still in nascent stage and demand for Metal Sawing Machines was growing rapidly. ITL emerged as the sole manufacturer of India's first cent percent indigenously designed and developed High Speed Double Column Band Saw Machine to meet the growing demand.

Today ITL offers 60 different models of Bandsaw machine ranging from 100 mm to 1500 mm cutting capacity with manual, semi automatic, automatic and fourth generation CNC machine. In 1996, ITL joined hands with KASTO Maschinenfabrik GmbH Germany to manufacture state-of-the-art High Speed Power Hacksawing Machines in India, with a buy back arrangement. Today ITL manufacture's three models of Kasto Sawing Machines with cutting capacities 250 mm, 280 mm. and 400 mm. dia. in India as per Kasto Technology.

ITL has been the pioneer in introducing India’s first double column type metal cutting machine in the year 1990 and since then, ITL has supplied more than 2000 machines across the country and global markets.

Products:

Manufacturers, Traders & Exporters of Metal High Speed Sawing Machine. - High Speed Double Column Band Saw Machine - Blades - Bandsaw - Circular Sawing Machine - Tube/Pipe Manufacturing Machine -Power Hacksaw Machines - Special Purpose Machines - Generator Stator Bar Press - Power Packs -Micromist
Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 45.15%, while the general public holds 54.87% of the shares of the company.

Financials: For Q2FY10, the total income of the company came out to be Rs.14.35 Cr as against Rs.5.99 Cr in the same period previous year. Even after higher Depreciation, Interest & Finance charges and Provisions for taxation, the net profit of the company for Q2FY10, came out to be Rs.8.76 Cr as against
Rs.4.2 Cr in the same period previous year on a very small equity capital of Rs.3.25 Cr.

The EPS of the company for Q2FY10 came out to be Rs.2.69 as against Rs.1.29 in the same period previous year.
Triggers:

• The engineering industry in India is on an upswing on the back of huge demand from the construction, infrastructure and capital goods sector. This has resulted in an increase in the demand for metal cutting machines.

• ITL Industries Ltd (ITL) is well placed to take advantage of this opportunity as it is a leader in high speed sawing technology and is in the process of establishing itself in the domestic and global markets as an innovative and reliable "Cutting solution provider

• ITL has a wide product range in metal cutting solutions. The company offers 60 different models of brand saw machines ranging from 100 MM TO 1,500 MM cutting capacity with Manual, Semi Automatic, Automatic and fourth generation CNC machines. On the back of its technical tie up with a German company, ITL manufactures 3 models of Kato Sawing machines with cutting capacities of 250 MM and 400 MM diameter in India as per KLasto technology.

• The domestic demand as compared to the last year has improved in the current year. The present level of Turnover & Orders for Machine Manufacturing Division & Hydraulics Division has surpassed last year’s total turnover. The company has a good order book position.

• In some new products for Tube & Pipe Manufacturing Company, High Speed Circular Sawing Machines, ITL has captured a reasonable market size. More and more technological advancement and up-gradation of latest technology will create an opportunity to penetrate into new products liner global market in near future.

• In current year the Company is confident of growing much faster in comparison to economy capital goods industry. Looking to the present level of Orders and Enquires for Manufacturing Division i.e. Bandsaw and Tube & Pipe Manufacturing equipment it is seen that they are showing good signs of recovery. ITL's outlook on over-seas markets and domestic market are positive

on account of its strength o n cutting edge technology, cost and effective after sales services.

• The Company is falling under the capital goods industry, the growth of which is determined by overall growth of the Industry. An overall concern is pertaining to the pressure on the profitability. However, ITL has taken all measures to reduce the Direct and Indirect cost.

During the current year, the Tube and Pipe Manufacturing Division is showing excellent growth in orders and inquiry due the overall growth of Industry. The advancement of technology and strategic positioning of products is expected to give better results in the days to come.

Conclusion: According to the charts, the stock should only be bought above Rs.31, in any upmove.

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

Cords Cable Industries Ltd

BSE Code: 532941

CMP: Rs.38

Book Value: Rs.73.26

EPS: Rs.4.7

Dividend Yield: 2.21%

Price/Book: 0.89

Market Cap: Rs.54.57

P/E:10.16

Industry P/E: 11.78

Sector: Power Cable

Introduction: Cords Cable Industries Ltd (CCIL) was established in 1987 by a group of industry professionals with an objective of catering to a growing requirement for high quality customized cables.

With it’s headquarter in New Delhi, it manufactures Instrumentation cables, Control cables, Power cables besides special cables for electrical connectivity requirements, mainly for Industry. The Company manufactures cables up to 1.1 kilovolt for applications including industrial, utility and buildings. It caters to industries such as power, steel, cement, fertilizers and chemicals, and refinery/petroleum. The Company’s products include low-tension control cables (up to 1.1 kilovolt), low-tension power cables (up to 1.1 kilovolt), instrumentation cables, signal and data cables, thermocouple extension/compensating cables, panel wires/house hold wires/flexible cables, and specialty cables.

In January 2008, the Company came out with an IPO and on 13th February 2008 got listed on Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange of India.

In a significant development in 2008, Cords Cable Industries Limited became the only Cable manufacturer in the Asia-Pacific region to be listed by Forbes Magazine in its “Asia's 200 Best Companies under a Billion List.” It is now the biggest instrumentation cable maker in India.

Shareholding Pattern: According to the latest shareholding pattern, the promoters hold a controlling stake of 58.48% while the general public holds 41.52% of the shares of the company.

Financials: For FY09, the total sales of the company increased to Rs.222.8 Cr as against Rs.170.85 Cr in the same period previous year. However due to higher expenditure, interest and depreciation, the net profit of the company suffered. For FY09, the net profit of the company dipped to Rs.7.13 Cr as against Rs.13.8 Cr in the same period previous year, on a small equity base of Rs.11.43 Cr. The EPS of the company for FY09 dipped to Rs.6.24 as against Rs.16.81 in the same period previous year. The net and operating profit margin of the company also dipped considerably on Y-o-Y basis, due to slowing down of the world economy. The poor FY09 results considering Y-o-Y basis is mainly due to Q4FY09 results, which were abysmal and were much below expectations.

For Q1FY10, the total sales of the company though remained flat on Y-o-Y basis but the net profit dipped Y-o-Y basis. However the net profit of the company for Q1FY10, sequentially speaking was superb, which is an indication of improvement of business environment in the coming days. For FY10, the total sales of the company came out to be Rs.359.74 Cr as against Rs.360.40 Cr in Q1FY09. The net profit of the company for Q1FY10 suffered due to higher interest and depreciation. The net profit of the company for Q1FY10 came out to be Rs.67.7 lakhs as against Rs.2.44 Cr in the same period previous

year. But the though the net and operating profit margins of the company dipped considerably on Y-o-Y basis but the good point is that they improved substantially speaking sequentially; which tells us indirectly that going forward the company would do well. This is primarily the fundamental basis of recommending this hidden gem in the Power Cable Sector.

Industry Outlook: At global level, India's growth story is so far impressive with GDP expected to grow at the rate of 6-6.5% in FY10. Infrastructure needs to grow at a similar level for sustaining this GDP growth. This infrastructure is undoubtedly dependent upon the manufacturers of cables in the Indian cables industry. This augurs well for the suppliers of power cables, instrumentation and other cables.

The key to sustaining India's growth rate during a global meltdown lies in developing India's infrastructure sector as mentioned earlier. Keeping this in mind, the government is targeting an investment of US$ 20.38 billion over the next two years in the infrastructure sector. The scheme proposed by government cannot be achieved without participation of Private sector. The government has asked the Infrastructure Investment Finance Company Ltd (IIFCL) to put together a corpus of over US$ 8.15 billion for this purpose. This is in addition to the US$ 320 billion that the government plans to invest for the up-gradation of ports, railroads, highways and airports over the next 15 years. Further, the core sector growth is back on track. The index for six core industries crude oil, petroleum refinery products, coal, electricity, cement and finished carbon steel has turned in a growth of 2.9 per cent in March 2009 over March last year.

Apart from the power cables, Indian cable manufacturers are producing technologically advanced specialty cables including instrumentation cables, process control cables, low voltage electrical power cables, rubber cables, control cables, etc. which are used by the space, oil, gas, petrochemicals, fertilizers, cement, steel, railways, medical, automotive, electronics and many other core sectors of the Indian economy. Hence any positive development in the economy is directly proportional to the company’s fundamentals, which is expected to improve substantially going forward.

Triggers:

• The decline in margins in FY09 and Q1FY10 was mainly due to the increased cost of raw material which happened on account of sharp fluctuation in price of commodities like Copper & Steel which constitute almost 80% of the raw materials for cables. Moreover, global recessionary trend has adversely affected the profits of the Company by comparatively increasing the cost of inputs and slowing the product demand in the market. CCIL booked the material against order at higher price but had to offer lower price to customer when prices declined.

This has resulted into higher raw material cost for CCIL. However with improved business environment for the company in the coming days, this is expected to ease out considerably.

• Company even in the tiring business environment maintained its dividend payout in FY09 at the rate of Re.1 per share which is same as in FY08.

• The year 2008-09 proved to be a very challenging year for Indian Industry. During the year the GDP of the country fell down to 6.7% compared to 8.5% in FY’08. Cable Industry was no exception to this domestic and global meltdown. Despite all the global and domestic challenges and sharp fluctuation in commodities like Copper & Steel which constitute almost 80% of the raw materials for Cables, Cords Cable Industries Ltd (CCIL) achieved a growth of 30% in sales over FY08. To face all these challenges CCIL further diversified its business model and has added 33 new clients to its existing client base, has started exporting its product to many new countries and has added 3 new business sectors.

• In an effort to make its business model more sustainable CCIL focused aggressively on export markets and as a result the company increased the share of exports to 16.1% as against 7% in FY'08. With rupee depreciation, the company is expected to get good impetus on its export revenues. CCIL is well poised for future growth with a well developed strategy in place and is on course for achieving its target to increase the share of its export sales to 25% in FY10.

• The cable industry in the past 16 months has undergone a massive slowdown both in domestic and global markets. However the turnaround has already taken place and there is a great potential for the cable industry not only for 100% capacity utilization but also to capture more market by expansion drive. Looking at the aforesaid scenario and great potential, the company is poised for expansion. The effective steps for expansion had already been taken by the company last year but due to overall slowdown in the economy, the expansion drive was put on hold. However, now in view of the improvement in the overall situation, the project is expected to be commissioned expeditiously and is likely to commence production by April 2010. Also, RIICO allotted an alternative piece of land for the project due to certain issues with the proper procurement of the previous piece of land. The new land is better located and more suitable for the project.

The cost over run as such is proposed to be met from internal accruals & borrowings. The company had already received machinery which CCIL installed in the existing facility and has already started producing.

• As of 31st Mar 2009 CCIL had an order book of Rs.103 Crs. The company is not facing any problem in order booking. The order booking is same quantity wise but the value of the order book is low due to the declining prices of the raw materials. The order book is expected to cross Rs.150 Cr by Q4FY10.

Chart Check and Conclusion: Going forward, with increased manufacturing capacity, focus on exports and addition of new products, CCIL is poised to wire a new growth story in the cable sector.

We can expect CCIL to report Net Revenue of Rs.265 Cr, EBIDTA of Rs.29.6 Cr, EBIDTA Margin of 11.2%, PAT of Rs.11.1 Cr and EPS of Rs.9.7-Rs.10, in FY10. At the estimated EPS of Rs.9.7—Rs.10 for FY 10 the stock could trade at Rs.110-120, in the next 9-12 months time frame. Moreover, considering CCIL’s reasonable order book position, focus on exports, pick up in demand and stable commodity prices we can safely assume that CCIL’s margin is likely to improve in the coming quarters.
This scrip is suitable for investors who do not want to take too much risk but want a healthy return after a couple of years.

Note: The stock was recommended to the Paid Group last week in the Sunday Report. The above are the excerpts from the original report sent to the Paid Groups.

Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Premier Explosives - Small Cap Growth Stock

Secunderabad-based Premier Explosives Limited (PEL) is a small but growing company that will not appear on the radar of institutional investors. Its turnover for the year ended March 2009 was just Rs70 crore but it claims to be a manufacturer of the entire range of explosives and accessories in India.
PEL claims to have the widest range of products and technologies in explosives and accessories. The company also undertakes complete drilling and blasting contracts in collaboration with associates having drilling and excavation resources. Its manufacturing units are based in Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra.
Founded in 1980 by AN Gupta, a gold medallist in mining engineering, PEL is a company with a difference. Look at its enviable track record in research & development (R&D) work. PEL’s R&D facility is recognised as an established research centre by the Centre for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and for doctoral studies by Osmania University, Andhra Pradesh.
In January 2007, the company had signed a long-term contract of Rs70 crore for 10 years (renewable for another 10 years) with Satish Dhawan Space Centre, Sriharikota (SHAR), belonging to Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) mainly for the operation and maintenance of the second propellant plant (SPP) project at SHAR. Recently, PEL has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the material science department of Gulbarga University for taking up R&D activities in the area of material sciences. The company has received a number of awards for R&D, environment conservation, industrial relations and technology. It won the prestigious Defence Technology Absorption Award 2007 from the Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO), Ministry of Defence, Government of India. PEL also has two joint ventures abroad—Premier Synthas (Turkey) and Premier Georgia (Georgia), mainly for manufacturing explosives and accessories.
In August 2008, the company formed a joint venture with M/s VXL Technologies Ltd, Faridabad, called ‘VTL Premier Pyrotechnics Ltd’ for manufacture of pyrotechnic devices, fuses, etc, used for defence. The company also received a licence from the Indian government to manufacture propellants, pyros, hexanitrostilbene (HNS), hydrazinium nitroformate (HNF), a cyclic nitramine explosive called CL-20 and site-mixed explosives. This licence will help the company expand its product portfolio and the quantity of output ensuring higher revenues. Over the next two years, the company proposes to invest Rs50 crore for capacity expansion and backward integration, i.e., manufacturing raw materials used in the company’s products. Alongside, the company expects to obtain new orders as the Indian government proposes to increase defence expenditure by 33% for 2009-2010 and the fall in raw material prices could reduce manufacturing costs, currently (2008-2009) at 54.53% of the total cost.
Valuations & Outlook

The stock is trading at Rs66, which is not cheap. Its market-cap is 0.65 times its five-quarter sales (annualised) and five times its annualised operating profits. But its PE is 17—lower than 25 of Solar Industries. In FY08-09, PEL reported sales of Rs70.23 crore (a rise of 23% over the corresponding period the previous year); operating profit was down from Rs9.7 crore to Rs8.06 crore (-17%). For the June 2009 quarter, the company posted sales of Rs23.08 crore (up 51%) and operating profit went up 95% to Rs4.07 crore.
Over the past five quarters, its sales have grown by an average 28%. Its operating margin averaged 13% over the past five quarters.

Top 10 Stocks FIIs Buy & Love to Invest In

The last boom in the Indian stock markets was inarguably driven by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). These were companies placing their bets on the Indian growth story and rushing hot money in the stock markets. Here is a list published by MoneyControl.com of such stocks where FII's have biggest percentage share.


1.
Name of company: Sybly Industries Limited

FII share in company: 74.18 %

Best known for: Manufacturing Polyester Yarn and Mercerised

2.

Name of company: Indiabulls Real Estate

FII share in company: 67.43 %

Best known for: Real Estate

3.

Name of company: H D F C

FII share in company: 59.85 %

Best known for: Private sector banking

4.

Name of company: Geodesic

FII share in company: 53.47 %

Best known for: Developing products in the information, communication and entertainment space.

5.

Name of company: Amtek Auto

FII share in company: 50.84 %

Best known for: Manufacturing automotive components

6.

Name of company: IVRCL Infrastructure

FII share in company: 48.04 %

Best known for: Infrastructure sectors like Water & Environment, Transportation, Buildings, and Power

7.

Name of company: Prajay Engineering

FII share in company: 42.55 %

Best known for: Real estate

8.

Name of company: Amtek India

FII share in company: 42.55 %

9.

Name of company: Jain Irrigation

FII share in company: 42.02 %

Best known for: Manufacturing irrigation systems

10.

Name of company: Logix Microsystems

FII share in company: 41.96 %

Best known for: Software Products Company

Make a note, I am not asking you to buy stocks of these companies. This is for your information and the decision for buying stocks depends on performance of respective company. Normally it has been seen that the stocks where FII activities are more, stock price movement is volatile.

Sunday, November 01, 2009

Relaxo Footwear -robust quarterly performance

Relaxo Footwear is in the humdrum business of making footwear such as Hawaii slippers, casuals, joggers and school shoes. Headquartered in Delhi, the company was founded in 1976. While foreign footwear companies have introduced a brand culture in India and are focusing on the rich and upper-middle-class, Relaxo is catering to the lower-middle-class and the lower-income group.
In this segment, it is competing with Bata India, Action Shoes and Liberty Shoes. Relaxo’s edge is based on low price, reasonable quality and large production capacity. Its manufacturing capacity, of 100 million pairs per annum, is second only to Bata’s. It also has the capacity to manufacture 300,000 pairs of Hawaii slippers per day which is the highest in India.
Economies of scale enable the company to keep its product prices low. It also exports products to the US and the UK. Its financial performance for the past two quarters has been good. Sales have grown 30% and 31%, respectively, while operating profit has risen 80% and 102% in the March and June quarters over the same quarters of the previous year.
The five-quarter average sales and operating profit growth are 33% and 42%, respectively. Its operating margin is low (11%) but the stock is really cheap. Its market-cap is 0.25 and 2.14 times its sales and operating profit.
Following its robust quarterly performance, the stock has soared from Rs28 in March to Rs105 till date. Buy it at around Rs70.